1. 1 EMMMA: a web-based system for Environmental Mercury Mapping, Modeling, and Analysis Steve Wente, Paul Hearn, David Donato, and John Aguinaldo U.S.Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

2. NIEHS 2 Samples in Fish-Hg Compilation Samples/Site

3. NIEHS 3 NDMMF 1 / EMMMA 2 Progress & Plans Modeling Reports Interpretive Reports Improve Model Model Data Collect New DataData/Predictions on Web Original Fish-Hg Data 1. EPA CAMR RIA 2. St. Croix fish 1. Model description 2. Error assessment 3. Geospatial model Project Information 1. EMMMA website 2. Project article 3. User’s guide Data Collection ModelingVisualizationPublication Future: Collaborative Research Tools, Uncertainty Estimation, … 1 National Descriptive Model of Mercury in Fish 2 Environmental Mercury Mapping, Modeling, & Analysis Website (http://emmma.usgs.gov)http://emmma.usgs.gov (NDMMF)(EMMMA)

4. NIEHS 4 National Descriptive Model of Mercury in Fish (NDMMF) (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2004/5199/pdf/2004-5199.pdf) http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2004/5199/pdf/2004-5199.pdf Statistical model (analysis of covariance) Statistical model (analysis of covariance) Objectively partitions Hg variation between: Objectively partitions Hg variation between: –Sample characteristics (species, tissues sampled, & fish length); and –Spatiotemporal variation – differences among sampling events (specific site & time) Calibrated to national dataset (n > 58,000) Calibrated to national dataset (n > 58,000)

5. NIEHS 5 NDMMF Accuracy – St. Croix Study (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2006/5063/pdf/2006-5063.pdf) http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2006/5063/pdf/2006-5063.pdf Site # (n) Range (µg/kg) R2R2R2R2 Prediction Error 1 (14) 22 – 403 0.9422.5 2 (14) 27 – 224.7821.5 3 (14) 23 – 830.7841.7 4 (14) 19 – 299.9420.1 5 (11) 13 – 299.8535.6 6 (14) 12 – 414.8833.0 7 (14) 24 – 209.7039.7 8 (14) 21 – 269.7534.2 9 (14) 22 – 414.9128.2 10 (14) 21 – 611.9635.2 11 (14) 22 – 506.8934.7 12 (14) 8.2 – 243.9625.2 13 (14) 7.3 – 95.9436.1 14 (14) 7.8 – 374.9526.7 Overall 7.3 – 830.8931.6

6. NIEHS 6 NDMMF Accuracy Issue 34% P.E. =.72 R2 =R2 =R2 =R2 = 96 N = 29%34% P.E. =.03.72 R2 =R2 =R2 =R2 = 496 n =n =n =n =

7. NIEHS 7 Applications: Comprehensive Fish Advisories

8. NIEHS 8 Applications: Assessing Spatiotemporal Variation Predict “Standardized” Fish-tissue Hg Concentrations

9. NIEHS 9 Temporal Trends Raw Data Standardized

10. NIEHS 10 Spatial Variation (Raw Data) > 1.5 1.2 – 1.5 0.9 – 1.2 0.6 – 0.9 0.3 – 0.6 < 0.3 Mercury (ppm) NIEHS

11. 11 Spatial Variation (Standardized) > 1.5 1.2 – 1.5 0.9 – 1.2 0.6 – 0.9 0.3 – 0.6 < 0.3 Mercury (ppm) Comparison with Ancillary Data

12. NIEHS 12 Value of EMMMA Planning of monitoring projects Planning of monitoring projects Visualizing fish-mercury variation Visualizing fish-mercury variation –Across sample characteristics (assess model fit, fish consumption advisories) –Spatiotemporal variation (maps & time trends) ‘Eternal’ QA/QC & peer-review ‘Eternal’ QA/QC & peer-review –Easy access to & comparison of data & models –Rapid improvement in ‘mercury science’

13. NIEHS 13 Questions? Steve Wente spwente@usgs.gov spwente@usgs.gov Paul Hearn phearn@usgs.gov phearn@usgs.gov EMMMA http://emmma.usgs.gov http://emmma.usgs.gov Mercury PPM Fish-tissue