1. Survivor’s Guide to Ozone Conformity Breakout Session 9: Air Quality 2015 California Transportation Planning Conference: Partnering for Sustainable Transportation Los Angeles, California December 3, 2015 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency

2. 2 Outline Panel introductions Session goals New ozone (O 3 ) NAAQS overview Panel discussion Audience question and answer period Wrap-up and follow-up resources Welcome

3. Moderator Douglas Eisinger, STI Federal Karina O’Connor, US EPA State Dennis Wade, California ARB Local Rachel Kennedy, San Diego Assoc. of Gov’ts Rongsheng Luo, Southern California Assoc. of Gov’ts Tanisha Taylor, San Joaquin COG James Worthley, San Luis Obispo COG On Deck Jack Lord, FHWA Marilee Mortenson, Caltrans 3 Panel Members

4. Key Things to Understand About the New O 3 NAAQS 1.If you serve an area new to conformity: what to expect once conformity becomes effective. 2.If you are a seasoned conformity professional: new insights that can help you with your work. 3.Everyone: a “back at the office” checklist of key things to do in the next 6-12 months. 4 Session Goals

5. Why O 3 is a Concern Upper atmosphere: protects from the sun's harmful rays. Ground level: main component of smog, created by chemical reactions between NO x and VOCs. –Associated with urban areas, but can be transported to rural areas. Even relatively low levels can cause health effects. –Trigger chest pain, coughing, throat irritation, and congestion. –Worsen bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma. Also affects sensitive vegetation and ecosystems. –Interfere with plants’ ability to produce and store food. –Damage leaves. 5

6. Changing Ozone Standards (updated October 2015) Ozone Standard Final NAAQS Date Level Attainment Plans Due Attainment Date 1997July 199780 ppbMid 20072007/2023 2008Mar 200875 ppbMid 2015/20162015/2032 2015Oct 201570 ppbDec 2020/212020-2037 6 Region 9

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8. Timeline for 2015 Ozone Standard  New Ozone Standard  October 2015: NAAQS promulgated  Designations  October 2016 States/tribes recommend areas  October 2017: EPA designates areas as meeting or not meeting the NAAQS.  Air Quality Plans  2020/2021 – Initial Air Quality Plans Due  Transportation Conformity - Nov 2018  First Conformity Analyses Due  Conformity SIPs 8 Region 9

9. What is Transportation Conformity? Ensures that federal funding and approval are given to transportation activities that are consistent with Air Quality Goals Established by the Clean Air Act (§176(c)) Applies in areas designated as nonattainment or maintenance Transportation conformity rule can be found at 40 CFR parts 51.390 and 93 9

10. Why is Transportation Conformity Important? Transportation conformity addresses air pollution from on-road mobile sources... Source: SCAQMD (2012) South Coast: NOx Emissions for 2023 10

11. How Often Does Conformity Apply?  After the one-year grace period, a new conformity determination is required:  Every 4 Years: Before new transportation plans and TIPs (or amendments) are adopted  Within two years of an adequate or approved motor vehicle emissions budget (“SIP budget”)  Before a new non-exempt federal project receives FHWA or FTA funding or approval for the first time  Until the air quality area has been in maintenance for 20 years. 11

12. Who Does What? MPOs: –Prepares and adopts its plan and program according to federal transportation law –Conformity determination part of adopted plan and program U.S. DOT (Federal Highways, Federal Transit) –Approves the MPO determination Air Agencies –Develops the SIP and its budgets U.S. EPA –Consultation, develops regulations and guidance. 12 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency

13. What has to happen? The criteria for Conformity Prepare a regional emissions analysis. –Budget comparison or interim test. Must use latest planning assumptions. RTP must give priority to TCMs in an approved SIP. Interagency consultation and public participation. Plan and program must be fiscally constrained. 13 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency

14. Emissions budgets Budgets are the level of on road emissions consistent with progress and attainment in the SIP. Includes precursors. Benefits of any regulation necessary to show progress or attainment must be included. Out year budgets or trading 14 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency

15. The Budget Test Estimated emissions of each pollutant or precursor in the regional analysis must be equal or be less than SIP budget. –for the attainment year and each SIP milestone (RFP) year –through the time frame of the transportation plan (horizon year). MPO must use EPA approved emissions model (i.e. EMFAC). 15 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency

16. How does the transportation agency demonstrate conformity for the first time?  Before Air Quality Plans  Interim Emissions Tests (40 CFR 93.119)  Two types of tests:  Build/no-build test: emissions from planned transportation system < or ≤ emissions without planned changes to the transportation system  Baseline year test: emissions from planned transportation system < or ≤ emissions in the baseline year  Project Level Conformity if Needed 16

17. Interagency Consultation (What is a Conformity SIP?)  Each area must establish procedures for consultation between:  MPOs  State and local air agencies  State and local transportation agencies  EPA & FHWA/FTA  Consult on development of SIP, plan, TIP, and conformity determinations 17

18. Consequences of Failing Conformity  If an area cannot conform by a 2 or 4-year plan/TIP deadline, a 12-month conformity grace period starts  If a new plan and TIP cannot be adopted before the end of the grace period, conformity lapses  During a lapse, only 3 types of projects can proceed  Exempt projects (e.g., air quality neutral projects)  TCMs that are included in an approved SIP  Any project phase that was approved prior to the lapse (but not any subsequent phases) 18

19. Panel Discussion 19

20. Audience Question and Answer Period 20 Wrap Up and Follow-up Resources

21. Doug Eisinger Sonoma Technology, Inc. doug@sonomatech.com 707-665-9900 Marilee Mortenson Caltrans marilee.mortenson@dot.ca.gov 916-653-3758 For more information Karina O’Connor US EPA oconnor.karina@epa.gov (775) 434-8176 Dennis Wade California ARB dwade@arb.ca.gov 916-327-2963 Tanisha Taylor SJCOG taylor@sjcog.org (209) 235-0600 James Worthley SLOCOG jworthley@slocog.org (805) 788-2002 Rongsheng Luo SCAG luo@scag.ca.gov (213) 236-1994 Rachel Kennedy SANDAG rachel.kennedy@sandag.org (619) 699-1929 Jack Lord FHWA jack.lord@fhwa.dot.gov 916-498-5888 Contacts 21

22. 22 Supplemental Materials

23. 23 Reproduced from U.S. EPA material released in 2014 to support O 3 NAAQS revisions. EPA modeled most California O 3 background levels to be between 30 and 50 ppb.

24. O 3 in the South Coast Air Basin Source: CARB, 2015; blue line equals 75 ppb http://www.arb.ca.gov/adam/trends/graphs/graphtrendo3area.php http://www.arb.ca.gov/adam/trends/graphs/graphtrendo3area.php 24 New O 3 NAAQS Overview 24

25. O 3 in the San Joaquin Valley Source: CARB, 2015, blue line equals 75 ppb http://www.arb.ca.gov/adam/trends/graphs/graphtrendo3area.php http://www.arb.ca.gov/adam/trends/graphs/graphtrendo3area.php 25 New O 3 NAAQS Overview 25

26. Questions to Weigh Big Picture: 1.What is different now that the O 3 NAAQS have changed? 2.How will the new NAAQS change the way you conduct your work? For conformity “first-timers:” 1.What essential conformity advice do agencies need to have? 2.What top three conformity things should you keep in mind? 3.When should you establish conformity interagency consultation? 4.How should you handle project-level conformity in rural areas? For “experienced” conformity areas: 1.What advice do you have for “experienced” conformity areas? 2.What are the overall implications of the new standards? Summary messages: 1.What planning challenges are triggered by the new standards? 2.What actions should agencies complete in the next 6-12 months? 3.How can agencies track and share information and insights? 26 Panel Discussion