1. Technology for Homeland Security PANDEMIC SCENARIO By Kevin G. Coleman kgcoleman@echnolytics.com

2. 2 Introduction The Department of Homeland Security has created numerous scenarios of catastrophic events that all pose a significant threat to the security of the United States. One of those scenarios is that of a flu pandemic. –Outbreak is a significant spike in the number of cases of the disease seen in a short period of time. –Epidemic is when a disease kills more than 7.7% of those infected. –Pandemic is when the disease impact a significant percentage of the populate across a number of countries.

3. 3 Current State The Bird Flu or Avian influenza is a type of influenza virulent in birds. It was first identified in Italy in the early 1900s and is now known to exist worldwide. –As of March 19 th Reported in 152 locations around the world Humans infected 176 Resulting Deaths 97 –Expected to reach the United States this fall.

4. 4 Key Facts –Key Facts It is moving faster then expected The H5N1 strain is molecularly changing There has been one outbreak in France within a group of birds raised indoors. Scientists and government officials across North America are beginning to test the first of many thousands of birds for avian flu and taking other new steps to be ready when the disease turns up on the continent. “There has been maybe one or two documented cases of human-to-human transmission.” –Dr. ANTHONY FAUCI, Director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases

5. 5 Hypothetical Scenario The H5N1 strain hits the United States. The strain has mutated and becomes human to human transferable. –A passenger on a 180 person flight lands at Memphis International Airport. Day Zero Initial Cross infection –5 people on the plane –4 people on the ground »Taxi driver, hotel receptionist, bellman, room service »Four of the five on the plane go to different cities and they in turn infect another 9 individuals who intern infect 9 people »Over 800 are infected at that point of which over 400 will die.

6. 6 Tracking the Threat –In the hypothetical scenario there is a strong likelihood Memphis would become quarantined immediately. Think of the business impact –How would FedEx reconfigure their logistics network? –What about supplies, how will supplies be sent into the quarantined area? –How would you handle people visiting the area who become stranded? Estimated Impact –30% to 50% of the workforce out ill and 30% of those infected have a high probability of dieing. –$300 billion economic impact on the United States –Global collapse of travel industry for 6 weeks to 6 months.

7. 7 Tracking the Threat Tracking a rapidly expanding disease like the one described in the hypothetical scenario requires real time GIS. In addition multiple views of the data are required to assess the multiple aspects of the ever changing situation. You have to track: Human Infections Strain mutations Bird infections Bird migration Other species (one cat has been infected) –Location intelligence is critical to the current response plan of business, government and industry. The weakest link in the system is the latency in reporting from the medical community into the tracking center.