1. 1 Support to enterprise – a counterfactual approach Daniel Mouqué Evaluation Unit, DG REGIO Ex post evaluation – WP 6c

2. 2 Enterprise & innovation support Some €79 billion in 2007-13: the largest broad category of expenditure Key instrument: the grant (others include: loans/VC, advice, networking, incubators) Previously, evidence for success was mainly: –Monitoring data –Interviews on deadweight

3. 3 The evaluation 2 grants (modernisation, R&D) in E. Germany 2 databases: IAB enterprise « panel », GEFRA survey of innovation in Thuringia Focus groups with project and prog managers 2 scientific experts

4. 4 What is a counterfactual? Used in many methods (but often implicit or qualitative) New tool borrowed from medicine and science. Key feature: control group (think drug trial) Harnessing the power of statistics (pro: credible, con: data-heavy) Selecting matches: can range from very simple to very complex.

5. 5 Main methods of this evaluation Controlled difference in difference (take a simple method, add regression) Propensity Score Matching (using statistics to find “twins”) Instrumental Variable (using grants to female entrepreneurs)

6. 6 Results: investment grants

7. 7 Results: R&D grants

8. 8 Results: employment An estimated 27,000 jobs created Significantly lower than monitoring data for jobs created (107,000). Reconciliation: gross/net. Cannot reconcile with number of jobs safeguarded (439,000) => Strong conclusion: main effect of grants is investment (and productivity) change, not jobs

9. 9 In conclusion Interesting results An interesting method (potentially more rigorous, gives clear headline figures) But data-heavy, so not appropriate in every case

10. 10 Where to find the evaluation Inforegio, then the following steps: > The Policy > Impacts and results > Evaluation > Evaluations undertaken for the Commission > 2000-2006