1. Introduction Hist3797: History of world populations » 1. Course theme: how human populations grow (and decrease) » 2. Some population theorists: Malthus, Marx, and Boserup » 3. A paradigm: demographic transition » 4. Genealogy of population history » 5. Sources: registers: births, deaths, marriages censuses: lists, microdata » Commercial: IPUMS International

2. World Population History: Introduction2 World population doublings: 1 AD to 2000 and beyond 0.25 0.5 1 2 4 1 AD 1/4 billion 1550 1/2 18251 19252 19774 2025?8?

3. 2. Three social philosophers: Malthus, Marx and Boserup » Thomas R. Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798): Population increases geometrically; subsistence, arithmetically. Poverty is the result unless there is “moral restraint”. » Karl Marx, Das Kapital (1867): Each mode of production has its corresponding mode of reproduction.

4. Three social philosophers: Malthus, Marx and Boserup » Esther Boserup, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth (1965), demographic pressure (population density) promotes innovation and higher productivity in use of land (irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seeds) and labor (tools, better techniques).

5. 3. Demographic transition: phase shifts in mortality and fertility growth rate Decline A post-modern phase?--low death rates, lower birth rates, negative growth rates.

6. 4. Genealogy of historical demography » Political arithmetic (1665) John Graunt, London Bills of Mortality » Demographic methods applied to the past Louis Henry (1957): natural fertility, family reconstitution » Household and family in past time Peter Laslett (1972): 3 generation families were rare in the past due to high mortality

7. 5. Data » Vital events registers (church, civil): births, deaths, marriages » compute demographic rates from family genealogies » project demographic stats from annual totals » Censuses: population lists microdata (computerized individual data)

8. World Population History: Introduction8 16th century Aztec census (in Nahuatl, 1530s): “Here is the home of...” translated (from Museum of Antropology, Mexico City) original ms. microdata transcribed

9. World Population History: Introduction9 12100102600700720000011210000104 22200202600700720000011210000104 32300100600700720000012123000000 42300200400700000000000000000000 52300200200700000000000000000000 62300200000700000000000000000000 Digital microdata of the late 20th century

10. World Population History: Introduction10 - Commercial -

11. World Population History: Introduction11 The origin of IPUMS i is IPUMS-USA... The origin of IPUMS i is IPUMS-USA... www.ipums.org/usa: Census microdata samples (1-6%) for the USA, 1850 to 2000 www.ipums.org/internationalwww.ipums.org/international : www.ipums.org/international » Inventory the world’s census microdata » Preserve them » Harmonize microdata and metadata » Disseminate via the web » Free to all, thanks to NSF & NIH

12. World Population History: Introduction12 IPUMS-International, November 2005 dark green = disseminating medium green = integrating lightest green = negotiating

13. World Population History: Introduction13 Integrating African Census Microdata dark green = disseminating medium green = integrating lightest green = negotiating

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15. World Population History: Introduction15Plagiarism: “Up, up, up, groping through the clouds for what seemed like an eternity.... No amount of practice could have prepared them for what they encountered. B-24s, glittering like mica, were popping up out of the clouds all over the sky.” —Thomas Childers, Wings of Morning, Page 83, as cited in Barnes' piece. "Up, up, up he went, until he got above the clouds. No amount of practice could have prepared the pilot and crew for what they encountered—B-24s, glittering like mica, were popping up out of the clouds over here, over there, everywhere." —Stephen Ambrose, The Wild Blue, Page 164, as cited by Barnes.