1. National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment Mr. Mike Babcock Senior Staff Meteorologist, OFCM NOAA SAB FWRWG, October 1, 2007

2. Fires: An Increasing Threat 2005 and 2006 were record years for acres burned 2005 and 2006 were record years for acres burned Acres burned have trended upwards more than 100% since mid-80s Acres burned have trended upwards more than 100% since mid-80s Source: National Climatic Data Center Climate of 2006 Wildfire Season Summary

3. Fires: An Increasing Threat 2006 2006 –9.9 million acres burned –Set new record 2007 2007 –8.1 million acres burned as of 9/20/07 –36% above 10-year average The U.S. spends approximately $2.7B annually in wildland fire suppression, preparedness, fuels management, and other activities.

4. WGA Request June 2005 WGA Resolution June 2005 WGA Resolution –“The Western Governors urge NOAA to: Complete a National Needs Assessment Report, by NOAA ’ s Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, of federal, state and local fire managers needs for weather information in their wildfire and prescribed fire decision making processes and a framework to meet those needs by the NWS and Predictive Services.”

5. ICMSSR Action Item, November 2005 ICMSSR Action Item, November 2005 –“OFCM should move forward to form a Joint Action Group (JAG) under the Committee for Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs (CESORN), to review the needs and requirements for wildland fire weather information, to include identifying organizational responsibilities and addressing the following issues: data collection, fire weather research, weather forecast services, data assimilation, air quality, information dissemination, education and outreach, and user response.” By Spring, 2006, the Joint Action Group for the National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment (JAG/NWFWNA) was formed By Spring, 2006, the Joint Action Group for the National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment (JAG/NWFWNA) was formed OFCM Response

6. –DHS  FEMA  U.S. Fire Administration –DOC  NOAA  NIST –DOD –DOE –DOI  U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service  National Park Service  Bureau of Land Mgmt  U.S. Geological Survey  Bureau of Indian Affairs –DOT  FAA  FHWA –EPA –HHS –NASA –USDA  U.S. Forest Service –Subject Matter Experts  State Foresters  Universities Cochairs: Dr. Allen Riebau, USDA/FS Mr. Eli Jacks, DOC/NOAA/NWS Representatives from: JAG/NWFWNA

7. Obtained info via workshops and questionnaires Obtained info via workshops and questionnaires –Reached out to 2,100+ community members –Received input from 745, including reps from:  National Association of State Foresters  National Interagency Fire Center  National Interagency Coordination Center  National Wildfire Coordinating Group  International Association of Wildland Fire  Many others (federal agencies, states, tribes, local emergency managers, academia, private companies/industry, etc.) Results: Results: –Identified 47 validated needs in 9 functional areas Assessment Process

8. 9 Functional Areas 9 Functional Areas –Data collection and use –Modeling, prediction, and data assimilation –Forecast products and services –Fire weather research and development –Information dissemination and technologies –User response and decision support –Education, training, outreach, partnering, and collaboration –Socioeconomic factors –Funding and human resources (crosscutting)

9. Example: Forecast Products & Services NWS Red Flag Warnings Extremely beneficial product for users Extremely beneficial product for users Frequently used Frequently used Enhancements needed include longer lead times and wider dissemination Enhancements needed include longer lead times and wider dissemination

10. Example: Fire Weather R&D Community needs better understanding of how climate change and variability impact wildland fire threat Community needs better understanding of how climate change and variability impact wildland fire threat Potential base to build on: Potential base to build on: –Forest Service Northern Global Change Research Program

11. Example: Information Dissemination Coordinated, “One-stop” Website for Fire Weather Data & Tools Easier access to all relevant regional data/products Easier access to all relevant regional data/products –Operational and experimental products –Product accuracy information –Product training and reference material –Information on latest research efforts –Archived data Base to build on: Base to build on: –Rocky Mountain GACC Internet page is a site with considerable info addressing some of these areas

12. Example: Decision- Support Tools Users want better decision-support tools for smoke management Development must include more collaboration with and feedback from the user community Development must include more collaboration with and feedback from the user community Base to build on: Base to build on: –NOAA Air Resources Laboratory smoke analysis & forecast products out to 48 hrs

13. Example: Training Users want comprehensive, proven, fire weather training/certification programs Build on best practices among existing training programs Build on best practices among existing training programs –The National Wildfire Coordinating Group Training Working Team has widely used and successful training programs, however,  They need to be validated against current training requirements  They need to be available for entire community  Must address core competencies

14. Example: Socioeconomic Factors Use existing tools to inform and educate the public State-of-the-art outreach tools can be adapted for public outreach, understanding, mitigating, and responding to wildland fire threats State-of-the-art outreach tools can be adapted for public outreach, understanding, mitigating, and responding to wildland fire threats Base to build on: Base to build on: –Forest Service Pacific NW Research Station research on socioeconomic resiliency

15. Focus on Fire Weather R&D ID current work viewed by users as relevant Users’ assessment of knowledge gaps Spectrum of user needs and requirements Existing and potential R&D capabilities Potential partnerships Transition from R&D to Operations ID current work viewed by users as relevant Users’ assessment of knowledge gaps Spectrum of user needs and requirements Existing and potential R&D capabilities Potential partnerships Transition from R&D to Operations

16. Fire Weather R&D (2) Four Major Needs – –The fire community needs a better understanding of the physical processes associated with fire potential, fire combustion, wildland fire smoke, and climate change/climate variability – –Users need easier and more centralized access to information on research initiatives, efforts, and successes – –Mature research needs to be integrated systematically into an operational environment for routine use by the fire community – –Users need to be integrated into R&D efforts to allow for effective feedback on operational usefulness Four Major Needs – –The fire community needs a better understanding of the physical processes associated with fire potential, fire combustion, wildland fire smoke, and climate change/climate variability – –Users need easier and more centralized access to information on research initiatives, efforts, and successes – –Mature research needs to be integrated systematically into an operational environment for routine use by the fire community – –Users need to be integrated into R&D efforts to allow for effective feedback on operational usefulness

17. Fire Weather R&D (3) Closer look at first major need – –Interaction between fire potential, fire combustion, and atmosphere needs to be better understood and modeled – –A better understanding of wildland fire smoke is needed, and smoke prediction tools need to be refined and perfected – –Wildland fire and climate change/variability is an issue of high concern, for which more scientific understanding is a priority Closer look at first major need – –Interaction between fire potential, fire combustion, and atmosphere needs to be better understood and modeled – –A better understanding of wildland fire smoke is needed, and smoke prediction tools need to be refined and perfected – –Wildland fire and climate change/variability is an issue of high concern, for which more scientific understanding is a priority URGENT

18. Summary and JAG Next Steps Summary: Summary: –Identified 47 validated needs within 9 functional areas. Summary document available online JAG Next Steps: JAG Next Steps: –Finalize detailed needs report –Form Working Group to move forward –Work with agencies and interagency groups on a gap assessment and a coordinated plan to close the gaps –Leverage existing and planned capabilities at all levels; build vertical and horizontal partnerships

19. Questions?

20. BACKUP SLIDES

21. OFCM Background Jan 1964: Public Law 87-843 led to OFCM formation –Accountable to Congress and OMB –Coordinate agency budgets and activities  Report budgets and activities in annual Federal Plan 1980: GAO study revitalized OFCM –Independent function with full-time staff 1985: DOC IG reviewed OFCM and made two specific recommendations, directing OFCM to: –Perform crosscut studies to review agency weather programs and requirements –Document OFCM studies; make information available to interested parties in the decision-making and budgeting processes

22. OFCM Mission: OFCM Mission: To ensure the effective use of federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather requirements, services, and supporting research, among the federal agencies To ensure the effective use of federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather requirements, services, and supporting research, among the federal agencies High-level focus on: High-level focus on: – Needs and requirements – Issues and problems – Studies, reports, plans, and handbooks – Crosscut reviews, assessments, and analyses OFCM Background

23. Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR) Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR) National Space Weather Program Council Committee for Space Weather National Aviation Weather Program Council Committee for Aviation Services and Research Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs Environmental Information Systems and Communications Integrated Observing Systems Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services Cooperative Research Working Group for Urban Meteorology Program Councils Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Standing Committees National Operational Processing Centers Program Council Committee for Operational Processing Centers OFCM Background

24. VADM CONRAD LAUTENBACHER, JR., USN (RET.) Chairman DR. SHARON L. HAYS Office of Science and Technology Policy DR. RAYMOND MOTHA Department of Agriculture DR. JOHN (JACK) HAYES Department of Commerce MR. ALAN SHAFFER Department of Defense DR. JERRY ELWOOD Department of Energy MR. KEVIN (SPANKY) KIRSCH Department of Homeland Security (OS&T) DR. MICHAEL SOUKUP Department of the Interior (NPS) MR. RALPH BRAIBANTI Department of State MR. RANDOLPH LYON Office of Management and Budget MS. VICTORIA COX Department of Transportation (DOT/FAA) MR. DAVID MAURSTAD Department of Homeland Security (FEMA) DR. S. ALAN STERN National Aeronautics and Space Adm. DR. JARVIS MOYERS (Acting) National Science Foundation MR. PAUL MISENCIK National Transportation Safety Board MR. MICHAEL JOHNSON U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission DR. LAWRENCE REITER Environmental Protection Agency MR. SAMUEL P. WILLIAMSON Federal Coordinator FCMSSR Members OFCM Background

25. MR. SAMUEL P. WILLIAMSON, Chairman Federal Coordinator MR. THOMAS PUTERBAUGH Department of Agriculture MS. VICKI NADOLSKI (Acting) Department of Commerce RADM DAVID GOVE, USN Department of Defense (U.S. Navy) DR. FRED P. LEWIS Department of Defense (U.S. Air Force) MR. RICKEY PETTY Department of Energy MR. KEVIN (SPANKY) KIRSCH Department of Homeland Security (OS&T) MR. JOHN VIMONT Department of the Interior (NPS) MR. ROBERT ARNOLD Department of Transportation (FHWA) MR. KENNETH M. LEONARD Department of Transportation (FAA) DR. JONATHAN M. BERKSON Department of Homeland Security (USCG) MR. JEFFREY MACLURE Department of State DR. S. T. RAO Environmental Protection Agency MR. DANIEL CATLETT (Acting) Department of Homeland Security (FEMA) DR. RAMESH KAKAR National Aeronautics and Space Adm. DR. JARVIS MOYERS National Science Foundation MR. DONALD E. EICK National Transportation Safety Board MS. LETA A. BROWN U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission MS. MELISSA N. BRANDT Office of Management and Budget ICMSSR Members OFCM Background

26. Departments of: Agriculture Commerce Defense Energy Homeland Security Science & Technology FEMA Coast Guard Interior State Transportation Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Science Foundation National Transportation Safety Board Nuclear Regulatory Commission Independent agencies: Executive Office of the President: Office of Management and Budget Office of Science and Technology Policy OFCM Partners OFCM Background

27. CESORN Action Recommend the CESORN establish a Working Group for Wildland Fire. This WG should: Recommend the CESORN establish a Working Group for Wildland Fire. This WG should: –Monitor agency progress toward meeting the needs identified by the JAG/NWFWNA –Coordinate activities across agencies to ensure established needs are being efficiently addressed –Monitor the needs of the community to address new and changing needs as they arise and develop –Reach out to wildland fire and land management agencies at the state, tribal, and local level to:  Ensure their needs are documented and addressed  Help them meet their needs through Federal actions