1. BRAEMAR SEASCOPE Processing & Analysis of Shipbuilding Orderbook Data Robert Willmington, Research Analyst Gdansk, April 2008

2. BRAEMAR SEASCOPE Shipbuilding Output 1971-2011

3. BRAEMAR SEASCOPE Why collect newbuilding data? Background to shipbuilders Background to shipbuilders Newbuilding resales Newbuilding resales Forward charter fixtures Forward charter fixtures Future supply and demand forecasting Future supply and demand forecasting To feed in-house vessel databases To feed in-house vessel databases

4. BRAEMAR SEASCOPE Where do we get the data from? In-house information (S&P brokers) In-house information (S&P brokers) Maritime press Maritime press Ship owners Ship owners Shipyards Shipyards Classification Societies Classification Societies Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay Worldyards Worldyards Equipment suppliers Equipment suppliers

5. BRAEMAR SEASCOPE Data Fluctuations New orders New orders Order conversions Order conversions Order cancellations Order cancellations Change in delivery dates Change in delivery dates Adding more detail – eg specification Adding more detail – eg specification Matching IMO numbers to hull numbers Matching IMO numbers to hull numbers Commercial information – e.g. prices, re-sales Commercial information – e.g. prices, re-sales

6. BRAEMAR SEASCOPE Potential data pitfalls Erroneous reporting & double counting Erroneous reporting & double counting LOI not concluded to contract signing LOI not concluded to contract signing Incorrect delivery dates Incorrect delivery dates Delivery slippage Delivery slippage Failure of contract Failure of contract Under-reporting by Japanese yards Under-reporting by Japanese yards Over reporting by Chinese yards Over reporting by Chinese yards

7. BRAEMAR SEASCOPE Japan under-reported orderbook

8. BRAEMAR SEASCOPE Supply Dynamics Capesize Newbuilding

9. BRAEMAR SEASCOPE Shipyard lead time (Aframax or 8,000 TEU containership at S. Korea-based shipyard)

10. BRAEMAR SEASCOPE Ordering Trends Comparison (GT)

11. BRAEMAR SEASCOPE Potential Shipyard Problems? (Bulk carriers 60,000 – 300,000 DWT)

12. BRAEMAR SEASCOPE Conclusion Is available newbuilding orderbook information reliable? Is available newbuilding orderbook information reliable? More caution needed when analysing data More caution needed when analysing data Better relationships needed with China-based shipyards Better relationships needed with China-based shipyards Does anybody have the definitive orderbook?! Does anybody have the definitive orderbook?!