1. Global Environmental Change and Food Security in IGP Site 1, Gujrat, Pakistan Seminar on ‘GECAFS Research on Food System and Global Environmental Change in Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), 5-7 February 2009, New Delhi, India

2. Study site 1: Gujrat

3. 3 Projected Changes in Average Temperature of Northern and Southern Pakistan (Corresponding to IPCC A2 Scenario) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1990s2020s2050s2080s Period Temperature Change (°C) northern pp pakistan southern pp pakistan Northern PakistanSouthern Pakistan

4. 4 Projected Changes in Average Precipitation of Northern and Southern Pakistan (Corresponding to IPCC A2 Scenario -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 1990202020502080 Period Precipitation Change (%) northern pp pakistansouthern pp pakistan Northern PakistanSouthern Pakistan

5. Some Projected Changes in River Flows due to Melting of HKH Glaciers (As reported in recent studies) IPCC TAR (2001): Increased glacier melt in the Himalayas may cause serious floods in Nepal, India and Bangladesh. World Bank (2006): Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years. IPCC AR4 (2007): Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.

6. SNFS ComponentKey DeterminantDescription 1ProductionSize of land holdingsMostly Small: Less Productive 3ProductionDegree of self-sufficiencyLow: e.g. Wheat Import 4ProductionPrincipal crop?Wheat 5ProductionImportance of cash cropsLess 6ProductionImportance of livestock High: Mostly self sufficient in Milk production 7Production Spatial variation in production Irrigated: High productivity Rainfed: Low productivity 8Production Labor available or constrained Constraint only during rice transplantation 9Production Other biophysical constraints Low soil productivity-Water erosion Availability from Production

7. SNFS ComponentKey DeterminantDescription 1DistributionInfrastructure Private distribution: Good Government distribution: Fair 2Distribution Presence of storage/ safety net Not Enough Storage for food items for whole year 3DistributionHousehold storage Essential Characteristics in R.HH. But Medium level in urban areas 4Distribution Is distribution skewed or balanced? How? Balanced for Wheat but poor for fruit and vegetables Availability from Distribution

8. SNFS ComponentKey DeterminantDescription 1Exchange Importance of exchange for HH No 2ExchangeAbility to import foodHigh 3ExchangeMajor Imports Wheat, Fruits, Vegetables 4ExchangeMajor Exports Rice 5ExchangeRole of remittances Very High. Availability from Exchange

9. SNFS ComponentKey DeterminantDescription 1AffordabilityHousehold incomes Enough to afford basic food requirement only. 2AffordabilityPrices of Food Items Medium to High Affordability 3Affordability Proportion of food purchased Other then wheat, rice, and milk products most of them are purchased. 4Affordability Percentage of Income spent on food 45 percent 5AffordabilityPricing policy supportLess to Medium Support 6Affordability Subsidized Food by government Least support ( Weekly discount bazaars, Govt. utility stores, Special packages) Access: Affordability

10. SNFS ComponentKey DeterminantDescription 1Allocation Control over own production High/Complete 2Allocation Degree of market influence High 3Allocation Govt. intervention in markets Weak (Strong in Wheat procurement only) 4AllocationMarket efficiency Low for fruit and vegetables Medium to High for stable food Access: Allocation

11. SNFS ComponentKey DeterminantDescription 1PreferencePreferred carbohydrateWheat 2PreferencePreferred protein Milk/ Pulses/ Poultry 3PreferenceConsumption patternsNo change 4Preference Changes with seasonality Yes 5Preference Raw or Processed/packed Increasing trend of Processed/Packed food items ACCESS: PREFERENCE

12. SNFS ComponentKey DeterminantDescription 1Nutritional ValueFood diversity Medium (Mostly people relay on wheat, rice and pulses) 2Nutritional ValueMain Source of ProteinPulses 3Nutritional ValueOther source of proteinPoultry/Livestock Utilization: Nutritional Value

13. SNFS ComponentKey DeterminantDescription 1Food Safety Public awareness about hygiene Low to Medium 2Food SafetyPresence of pathogens Medium 3Food Safety Substandard ingredients in Food High 4Food Safety Presence of Agro Chemicals in food Low Utilization: Food Safety

14. FS Outcome Water Related Stresses SensitivityCoping CapacityVulnerability Utilization Nutritional Value Food diversity Drought conditions compel farmers to sell their livestock that decreases their milk consumption Fodder crops are sensitive to water availability in rainfed areas they cannot cope with this situation except in some areas where GW is affordable Vulnerable to change in rainfall pattern Main Source of Protein Associated with rainfall pattern and reliability because pulses being important food crop is dependent upon rain Pulses as food crop production sensitive to timely rainfall Same Access Affordability household incomes Low water availability > Low production > Poverty Rainfed areas are sensitive to rainfall They seek foreign employment that increase their income through remittances Those who can not go suffer and get trapped in poverty

15. FS Outcome Water Related Stresses SensitivityCoping CapacityVulnerability Availability Production Size of land holdings In rainfed areas they can not afford to install tubewell especially in rainfed areas where groundwater is deep Crop production sensitive to timely rainfall and unavailability of surface water To cope this situation they have to purchase GW from large farmers that increases their cost of production Vulnerable to rainfall pattern and falling groundwater Size of land holdings In canal irrigated areas, unequal distribution, conveyance losses and institutional Arrangements create problems Productivity / profitability is very sensitive Installation of tubewell Change in surface water flows and falling groundwater Other biophysical constraints Topography of area does not allow access to surface water, Most of area relay of rainfall, excessive drainability of soils reduces water holding capacity, Runoff due to topography Crop diversification and production is affected by water availability can not cope with this situation Vulnerable to rainfall pattern and falling groundwater and erosion Distribution Infrastructure Floods damages infrastructure Sensitive to frequency and intensity of floods Flood control system, mini dams, lift irrigation mini-dams is vulnerable to silt deposition, irrigation infrastructure is vulnerable to flooding Presenc e of storage/ safety net open storage system is affected by untimely rainfall quality of stored wheat is affected not coping capacity Vulnerable to rainfall pattern