1. Weekly Weather Briefing 10/06/2011 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing Matthew Duplantis Meteorologist National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

2. Overview Today and Friday Today and Friday Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Strong winds and low RH values today and Friday will make for an enhanced fire danger over portions of the four state region. Strong winds and low RH values today and Friday will make for an enhanced fire danger over portions of the four state region. Weekend Weekend Temperatures hold steady while dewpoints slowly rise through the weekend. Temperatures hold steady while dewpoints slowly rise through the weekend. Slight chance of precipitation for east Texas Sunday night. Slight chance of precipitation for east Texas Sunday night. Monday through Wednesday Monday through Wednesday Slight chance of precipitation for much of four state region on Monday. Slight chance of precipitation for much of four state region on Monday. Rest of period returns to near normal temperatures with some very slight chances for precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rest of period returns to near normal temperatures with some very slight chances for precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

3. Currently at the Surface Compacting of the lines of constant pressure L H Pressure gradient is tightening across the four state region. Pressure gradient is tightening across the four state region. Stronger winds will be the result of the steep pressure gradient. Stronger winds will be the result of the steep pressure gradient.

4. Thursday Max Winds Winds strongest in the afternoon. Winds strongest in the afternoon. Strongest across East TX Strongest across East TX Wind Direction will be from the Southeast. Wind Direction will be from the Southeast. 20-25 mph 15-20 mph 10-15 mph

5. Thursday Minimum RH % RH values decreasing through the day as temperature increases with dry air already in place. RH values decreasing through the day as temperature increases with dry air already in place. Lowest RH values 1 to 6 PM Lowest RH values 1 to 6 PM < 20% 25% - 30 % 20% - 25 % 30% - 40 %

6. Enhanced Fire Danger Today RH values will be low in the 20 to 25 % range. RH values will be low in the 20 to 25 % range. Winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. Winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. Both coupled together will enhance the fire danger today in the affected area. Both coupled together will enhance the fire danger today in the affected area.

7. Thursday Highs Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. High level clouds much of the day. High level clouds much of the day. Warmer temperatures add to enhanced fire danger. Warmer temperatures add to enhanced fire danger.

8. Friday Max Winds Winds strongest in the afternoon. Winds strongest in the afternoon. Strongest across East TX Strongest across East TX Wind Direction will be from the South to Southeast. Wind Direction will be from the South to Southeast. 15-20 mph 10-15 mph

9. Friday Minimum RH % RH values decreasing through the day as temperature increases with dry air already in place. RH values decreasing through the day as temperature increases with dry air already in place. Lowest RH values 1 to 6 PM Lowest RH values 1 to 6 PM 25% - 30 % 20% - 25 % 30% - 40 %

10. Friday Highs Highs slightly warmer for Friday than Today. Highs slightly warmer for Friday than Today. Slightly warmer temperatures will add to enhanced fire danger again on Friday. Slightly warmer temperatures will add to enhanced fire danger again on Friday.

11. Sunday A trough over west Texas will bring a slight chance for precipitation to our western area. A trough over west Texas will bring a slight chance for precipitation to our western area. Not much moisture in the lower levels to work with and energy weakens as it moves east. Not much moisture in the lower levels to work with and energy weakens as it moves east. L H

12. Monday As the trough moves east over Texas, a slight chance for precipitation will exist over the four state region. As the trough moves east over Texas, a slight chance for precipitation will exist over the four state region. Energy will still be weakening and will have a lack of low level moisture to work with. Energy will still be weakening and will have a lack of low level moisture to work with. L

13. Tropics Tropics are relatively quiet…

14. Ongoing Drought FIRE DANGER PERSISTS! Virtually no change…

15. NEXT CONFERENCE CALL: Thursday Oct 13, 2011 10 AM www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana