1. Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 March 6, 2012

2. Class News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:2008 and 2010 Class –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action Projects: –First Meeting this week? Thursday before class? Thursday after class? Wednesday? Friday, remotely?

3. The Current Climate (Released Monthly) Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center.Climate MonitoringNational Climatic Data Center –http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html State of the Climate: Global

4. Key references and websites Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ keeps track of (inter)national energy use and future trends. http://www.eia.doe.gov/ The ‘wedge’ paper: “A plan to keep carbon in check” by Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006. (link)link –This is an influential policy-oriented paper on how to reform energy sector while still achieving economic growth

5. Today Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy CO 2 emissions: where do they come from? Current sources of energy Emissions from economic sectors Energy consumption by end use External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

6. Summary Points: Science Theory / Empirical Evidence CO 2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Correlated Observations CO 2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO 2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Observations CO 2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets  Concept of “Forcing” Prediction Earth Will Warm Validation Consequences Land Use / Land Change Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Internal Variability Feedbacks Air Quality “Abrupt” Climate Change Attribution

7. Response: Think about this for a minute What are the responses that make sense? –Regulation –Life time responsibility for product – the coke can –Improve use of current resources – efficiency –Integrate development and climate change - adaptation What might motivate those responses? –Potential costs –Make the cost right … do not deny “use” –Cost of inefficiency –Social justice issues What might hinder those responses? –Cost – benefit –Lack of flexibility –Social justice issues –Economy versus environment

8. Mainstream approach – targets and timetables From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate FixR. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

9. Emissions are growing faster than expected Source: Manning et al. 2010 From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate FixR. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

10. People Engage in economic activity that Uses energy from Carbon emitting generation Population GDP per capita Energy intensity of the economy Carbon intensity of energy P GDP/P TE/GDP C/TE Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C ------ ---- ---- P GDP TE Where do emissions come from? The “Kaya Identity” see IPCC WG 3IPCC WG 3 From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate FixR. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

11. Less people Smaller economy Increase efficiency Switch energy sources Population management Limit generation of wealth Do same or more with less energy Generate energy with less emissions Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C ------ ---- ---- P GDP TE FactorLever Population GDP per capita Energy intensity Carbon intensity Approach to Policy GDPTechnology P GDP/P TE/GDP C/TE What tools do we have to reduce emissions? From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate FixR. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

12. Pielke Jr. argues The need for technology to make solutions possible. Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative Must go –From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap –To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive

13. Climate Change Relationships We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change. CLIMATE CHANGEENERGY The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas

14. World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003 Source: International Energy Agency 2005International Energy Agency 2005 * megaton oil equivalent

15. Context: Growth

16. Today Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy CO 2 emissions: where do they come from? Current sources of energy Emissions from economic sectors Energy consumption by end use External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

17. CO 2 emissions arise from: 1.Cement production (~5 %) 2.Deforestation (~20 %) 3.Fossil fuel use (~75 %) World Carbon Emissions 75%

18. CO 2 source: Deforestation Deforestation is thus an important part of climate change: –It accounts for ~20 % of current CO 2 emissions –It accounted for ~35 % of total CO 2 emissions since preindustrial times. Fossil fuels320 Deforestation200 Total520 Compare with 590 GtC in the preindustrial atmosphere GtC

19. Context: Energy and Climate Change Consumption // Population // Energy CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY POPULATION CONSUMPTION SOCIETAL SUCCESS

20. Energy and Economic Success The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005) What countries are missing from this figure? What has changed since 2005?

21. Today Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy CO 2 emissions: where do they come from? Current sources of energy Emissions from economic sectors Energy consumption by end use External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

22. In what forms do we consume energy? Fossil fuels: –Coal –Oil –Natural gas Other: –Nuclear –Hydro –Renewables (mostly biomass) –‘Hydrogen’ Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004

23. Energy sources: Coal Emits most CO 2 per unit energy of all fossil fuels Accounts for ~29% of world CO 2 emissions Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations) Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter Proven reserves are almost endless (~250 years)

24. Energy sources: Oil Emits ~75 % of coal CO 2 emissions per unit energy. Accounts for ~30 % of world CO 2 emissions. Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating Proven reserves are ~40 years of conventional oil. After that, another ~100 years of unconventional oil (tar sands etc.) U.S. dependency on imported oil is a major national security concern

25. Energy sources: Natural gas Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits ‘only’ ~60 % of coal CO 2 per unit energy Accounted for ~16% of world CO 2 emissions Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal) Proven reserves are another ~65 years Methane Leakage and Fracking

26. Trend of fossil fuel use In ‘business- as-usual’ fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy Currently rapid increase of coal use, globally. International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007

27. Today Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy CO 2 emissions: where do they come from? Current sources of energy Emissions from economic sectors Energy consumption by end use External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

28. Emissions from economic sectors Industrial: creating products from raw materials (mining, cement, agriculture) Commercial: stores, municipalities, etc. Transportation: cars, planes, ships US energy use by sector EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

29. Transportation sector Sector with fastest growing CO 2 emissions in US Dominated by oil and road transport Accounts for ~23 % of worldwide and ~32 % of US CO 2 emissions EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006 U.S. energy consumption by sector

30. Buildings sector Both residential and commercial (stores, municipalities, etc.) Mostly electricity, except for fuel use for space heating Accounts for ~39 % of US energy use. EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006 U.S. energy consumption by sector

31. Industrial sector Includes mining, refining, factories, etc. The fraction of energy used by this sector generally decreases as countries become more developed. Also includes agriculture… EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006 U.S. industrial energy consumption by fuel U.S. energy consumption by sector

32. Agriculture: A different slice

33. Agriculture Use of direct fossil fuel energy relatively low: ~3–4.5 % in industrialized countries. –Half of used energy and direct CO 2 emissions are from fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process) BUT… big contributor to deforestation and land use change. Livestock rearing is most significant contributor

34. Agriculture: Livestock 2006 report of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN: –“The livestock sector emerges as one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global.” Important economic sector: –Employs 1.3 billion people (mostly poor) –Occupies 30 % (!) of Earth’s land surface through grazing (26 %) and feed production 33 % of arable land for feed production

35. Agriculture: Livestock Increasing demand for livestock products (meat, dairy) is one of main drivers of deforestation! –70 % of deforested land in Amazon is occupied by pastures. –Feedcrops cover most of remaining 30 %. –Livestock-induced deforestation emits ~0.65 GtC per year (compared to ~7 GtC from total fossil fuel use and ~2 GtC total deforestation) Livestock demand increasing rapidly with increasing world wealth (India, China). Should more than double by 2050.

36. Agriculture: Livestock Responsible for ~18 % of CO 2 equivalent GHG emissions (so including N 2 O and CH 4 )  Same share as entire US! –9 % of world CO 2 emissions Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer Deforestation and land use changes for feed production and grazing (bulk!) –37 % of world CH 4 emissions Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest anthropogenic source) Animal manure –65 % of N 2 O Mostly from animal manure deposited on soils, with subsequent N 2 O emission

37. Today Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy CO 2 emissions: where do they come from? Current sources of energy Emissions from economic sectors Energy consumption by end use External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

38. Energy consumption by end use The three main end uses of fossil fuel are: –Electric power plants (~40 % of CO 2 emissions) –Transportation (~23 % of CO 2 emissions) –Direct use of fuel (industrial processes and heating for buildings) (~37 % of CO 2 emissions) So ~40 % CO 2 emissions from electricity, 60 % from fuels Socolow and Pacala, 2006 World CO 2 emissions by fuel and end use

39. Energy consumption by end use: Electricity Two thirds of world electricity production comes from fossil fuels One third from hydro and nuclear power

40. Cost of Electricity Coal is cheapest and most used source of electricity in US! Solar Photovoltaic (PV) rather expensive Electricity generation by source, U.S., 2006 Cost of electricity in US in 2002 Source: Nathan Lewis, 2009 What is changing in this balance ?

41. Energy consumption by end use: Direct fuel use ‘Direct fuel use’: –Transportation (oil) –Heating in buildings –Industrial processes Dominated by oil No real alternatives for transportation fuels –Biofuels do not mitigate CO 2 emission –Future switch to renewable-powered hydrogen and/or electric cars? Direct Fuel Use Pacala and Socolow, 2006

42. Today Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy CO 2 emissions: where do they come from? Current sources of energy Emissions from economic sectors Energy consumption by end use External costs to energy use (besides climate change)

43. Major External Costs Public Health National Security Environment –Air quality – warming tension

44. Energy and climate (besides greenhouse warming) Burning of fossil fuels is important source of particulate matter (aerosols), which helps cool climate by: –Scattering radiation –Seeding clouds Cleaning up ‘dirty coal’ might thus not be good for climate…

45. Summary Points: U.S. Energy

46. Energy Appendix Original Material from Jasper Kok

47. CO 2 source: Cement Production Cement is produced from limestone, which is mostly calcite (CaCO 3 ). For production of cement: CaCO 3  CaO + CO 2 Production of cement emits CO 2 for two reasons: 1.CO 2 emitted directly 2.Production process takes place at high temperatures only (> 1000 ºC) which requires a lot of energy. Accounts for ~5 % of CO 2 emissions worldwide

48. CO 2 source: Deforestation Massive deforestation occurred –In developed nations during Industrial Revolution (driven by need for cheap energy) –In developing (tropical) nations right now, mostly in response to demand for cropland, pastures, and wood. When forests are cut down, CO 2 is released from: –Carbon in trees, plants, etc. (conversion to wood products preserves only small fraction) –Carbon in the soil (roots, humus) Forests absorb “excess” CO 2, since elevated CO 2 stimulates growth –Removal of forests removes this natural buffer against climate change

49. CO 2 source: Fossil Fuel Use Sharp increase (16-fold!) in world energy consumption over past century –Why did this occur?

50. Energy and Economic Success The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005)

51. So why has energy consumption increased so much? GDP/capita is considered the “societal success” Energy use increases have been driven by growth in population and GDP/capita. Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP)

52. Energy and population Strong population increase since pre-industrial times! Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP) http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html

53. World GDP/capita Also strong growth in GDP/capita! Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP) http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html

54. Energy and GDP Energy/unit GDP decreases as societies become more developed  shift from manufacturing to services (root cause of Michigan’s economic trouble) But total energy use per capita does not decrease. Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP) EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2008 Energy use per capita and per dollar GDP in U.S. (index, 1980 = 1)

55. So why has energy consumption increased so much? Main drivers of rapid increase in energy consumption have been increases in population and GDP/capita This is why climate change problem is so difficult: –We can’t affect population (possible, but politically incorrect…) –Reducing GDP to combat climate change is also not feasible But reduction in energy per unit GDP occurs with shift to knowledge-based economy (developed world now). Still, reduction in world energy use not realistic. –To reduce CO 2 emissions, need to drastically lower CO 2 emitted per unit energy, especially since we want economy to keep growing. Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person)*(energy/unit GDP)

56. Current sources of energy: Fossil fuels

57. Energy sources: Coal Emits most CO 2 per unit energy of all fossil fuels Accounts for ~29% of world CO 2 emissions Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations) Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter Proven reserves are almost endless (~250 years)

58. Coal is major source of air pollution Coal emits sulfur and smoke particulates “Great London smog” of 1952 led to thousands of casualties. –Caused by cold inversion layer  pollutants didn’t disperse + Londoners burned large amounts of coal for heating Demonstrated impact of pollutants and played role in passage of “Clean Air Acts” in the US and Western Europe

59. Coal use in the US After “Great London smog” of 1952, decrease in residential coal use Use of coal for electricity has been growing consistently because coal is cheap and abundant, and combustion technology is readily available Coal use by sector in US EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

60. Energy sources: Oil Emits ~75 % of coal CO 2 emissions per unit energy. Accounts for ~30 % of world CO 2 emissions. Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating Proven reserves are ~40 years of conventional oil. After that, another ~100 years of unconventional oil (tar sands etc.) U.S. dependency on imported oil is a major national security concern

61. Energy sources: Natural gas Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits ‘only’ ~60 % of coal CO 2 per unit energy Accounted for ~16% of world CO 2 emissions Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal) Proven reserves are another ~65 years

62. Trend of fossil fuel use In ‘business- as-usual’ fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy Currently rapid increase of coal use, globally. International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007

63. Reserves of fossil fuels We won’t be running out of fossil fuels anytime soon! ‘Unconventional’ includes oil sands, oil shale, coalbed methane, etc.. –Unconventional fossil fuels cost more energy/effort to mine Fuel type:Proven reserves (years) Unconventional reserves (years) Oil41125 Coal251210 Natural Gas64360 Source: World Energy Assessment, 2004

64. Current sources of energy: nuclear and renewables

65. Energy sources: Nuclear Accounts for ~6 % of world energy consumption and ~ 19 % of US electricity generation Used only for electricity generation No CO 2 emissions from plant operating, but some from uranium mining (~10 - 20 % of coal emissions per kWh) Concerns about nuclear waste storage and nuclear weapons proliferation Hardly growing in most of developed world. Nuclear share of electricity generation in U.S. Nuclear power plant licenses issued in U.S. EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006 Chernobyl

66. Energy sources: Renewables Mostly from biomass (wood), hydro power, and biofuels. Contribution from other renewables (geothermal, solar, wind, tides) are small. Renewable energy as share of total energy in U.S., 2006 EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

67. Hydrogen as a fuel is often misunderstood: –Hydrogen is NOT a source of energy! –It’s merely an energy carrier, much like electricity Hydrogen is produced by electrolyzing water:  This requires electricity Hydrogen burns cleanly Hydrogen’s significance is that: 1.It can be produced using renewable energy, which would displace fossil fuel. 2.Emissions are easier to mitigate, because they occur at a central location rather than individual cars. In the absence of policies including cost of climate change, hydrogen would be generated using cheap coal-generated electricity Energy ‘sources’: Hydrogen

68. Reserves of fossil fuels (repeat) We won’t be running out of fossil fuels anytime soon! ‘Unconventional’ includes oil sands, oil shale, coalbed methane, etc.. –Unconventional fossil fuels cost more energy/effort to mine Fuel type:Proven reserves (years) Unconventional reserves (years) Oil41125 Coal251210 Natural Gas64360 Source: World Energy Assessment, 2004

69. Electricity generation: Switch to renewables in future? So in ‘business-as-usual’ abundant, cheap, fossil fuel- derived electricity will likely be available until the end of the century. This cheap electricity can also be used to produce hydrogen fuel, should oil demand exceed supply. Renewables will thus not play important role until –Externalities are taken into account (taxes, cap-and-trade) –There are technological breakthroughs (solar PV, fusion)

70. Energy and National Security U.S. imports most of its oil –This is a liability, as some of that oil comes from Middle East (though not as much as one would think!) –Past (and most of current) U.S. energy policy revolves around energy security – not climate change mitigation Majority of remaining oil in Middle East Origin of US oil imports, 2006 US oil trade

71. Energy and Public Health The burning of fossil fuels is the dominant source of air pollution, emitting –Carbon monoxide (CO), which is toxic and can cause headaches and exacerbate heart disease –Nitrogen oxides (NO x ), which causes respiratory problems and leads to smog –Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), which produces acid rain and smog –Particulate matter, which causes respiratory problems –Mercury emissions, which are mostly taken in through fish, where they bioaccumulate. The overall cost of air pollution on human health is large (~6 % of deaths in EU) but very difficult to quantify

72. Projects

73. Use of climate information Research on the use of climate knowledge states that for successful projects, for example: –Co-development / Co-generation –Trust –Narratives –Scale Spatial Temporal Lemos and Morehouse, 2005

74. Projects Broad subjects and teams defined Meeting 1 with Rood –Now to early March: Project vision and goals Meeting 2 with Rood –Mid to late March: Progress report, refinement of goals if needed Class review –Short, informal presentation, external review and possible coordination Oral Presentation: April 10 and 12 Final written report: April 25

75. Project Teams Education / Denial –Allison Caine –Nayiri Haroutunian –Elizabeth McBride –Michelle Reicher

76. Project Teams Regional –Emily Basham –Catherine Kent –Sarah Schwimmer –James Toth –Nicholas Fantin

77. Project Teams City –Jian Wei Ang –Erin Dagg –Caroline Kinstle –Heather Lucier

78. Project Teams University –Nathan Hamet –Adam Schneider –Jillian Talaski –Victor Vardan

79. glisaclimate.org Goal to facilitate problem solving –Based on class experience –Support narratives –Build templates for problem solving