1. risk12a 1 Risk Management Proactive strategies for minimizing the effects of bad things

2. risk12a 2 Software Risk Management: Principles and Practices Barry Boehm IEEE Software, Jan1991 text pp443-452

3. risk12a 3 Survey u 35% of 600 firms “had at least one runaway software project” u In most cases “their problems would have been avoided or strongly reduced if there had been an explicit early concern with identifying and resolving their high-risk elements”

6. risk12a 6 Risks u Bad things that might happen u two characteristics –uncertainty - probability of happening –loss - cost if it happens

7. risk12a 7 Risk Management u Risk Assessment –Risk Identification –Risk Analysis –Risk Prioritization u Risk Control –Risk-management Planning –Risk Resolution –Risk Monitoring

8. risk12a 8 Risk Categories u Project risks –budget, schedule, personnel, requirements u Technical risks –design, implementation, interface, testing problems u Business risks –product viability

9. risk12a 9 Risk Exposure u A. the possibility of catastrophic loss u B. probability times potential loss u C. the factors that distinguish successful projects from unsuccessful projects u D. decision tree

10. risk12a 10 Risk Exposure Example u Is it better to play game 1 or game2 with a die? u 1 - pay $3 upfront and get paid $1 per dot u 2 - roll die and pay $3 for 1, $2 for a 2, get paid $3 for a 6, get paid $2 for a 4

12. risk12a 12 L12aS9 Individual Task u In figure 1, p444, what is the combined risk exposure if “the experiment team could reduce its critical-error probability to less than 0.04”? Assume all the remaining ratios are the same. u Due Thursday, 7/12 (off due Monday, 7/16)