1. The Moveable “Desert Maker” Phil Gersmehl Michigan Geographic Alliance pgersmehl@gmail.com Climate Change in History

2. To understand the role of climate change in history, students should be aware of three things: 1. the system that makes tropical deserts, 2. the systems that cause natural climate cycles, 3. the difference between weather and climate.

3. 1. What makes deserts? A typical climate map has a lot of info. It’s almost impossible to remember.

4. Let’s “declutter” and focus. “Describe the pattern of dry climates.”

5. Q. What causes tropical deserts? A. Rain near the equator. This globe is turned so the equator is up. Sun-heated air rises and makes rain over the equator... AND it has to come down somewhere.

6. Given the earth’s size, 24-hour rotation, distance from sun, etc. “down” is 20-25 degrees of latitude from where it went up.

7. And where the air comes down, it makes a desert. Given the earth’s size, 24-hour rotation, distance from sun, etc. “down” is 20-25 degrees of latitude from where it went up.

8. And where the air comes down, it makes a desert. Given the earth’s size, 24-hour rotation, distance from sun, etc. “down” is 20-25 degrees of latitude from where it went up. How would you describe the geographic pattern of deserts? “Start 1000 miles west of each continent on the Tropic line. Spread to about 20 latitude degrees; stop at the mountains.” “Rainshadow” deserts east of the mountains in the westerly wind area

9. How does this relate to history (and our GLCEs) ?

10. This is a simple graph of temperature thru time. Agriculture starts Irrigation starts South Asia flourishes Anatolia (Turkey) is rainy Greece is rainy Rome expands into Europe Barbarians invade Rome, Han dynasty collapses Vikings, Mongols Ming dynasty collapses Hunters thrive

11. To remember these facts, put them on a world map of deserts. Remember, Tropical deserts form where air that rose up at the equator is pushed back down. This downward air movement (called the Subsidence) will be farther from the equator if warmer air makes stronger storms near the Equator.

12. This downward air movement (called the Subsidence) will be farther from the equator if warmer air makes stronger storms near the Equator. The science is not “easily accessible” to ordinary citizens.

13. It does, however, make some specific predictions.

14. When the global average temperature is HIGH, the “desert-maker” is pushed away from the equator. Which places are likely to be helped ? ? ? ???

15. When the global average temperature is HIGH, the “desert-maker” is pushed away from the equator. Which places are likely to be helped ? Plus some large northern areas that might get warm enough for farming.

16. When the global average temperature is HIGH, the “desert-maker” is pushed away from the equator. Which places are likely to be hurt ?

17. When the global average temperature is LOW, the “desert-maker” shifts toward the equator. Which places are likely to be helped ?

18. When the global average temperature is LOW, the “desert-maker” shifts toward the equator. Which places are likely to be hurt ?

19. When the global average temperature is LOW, the “desert-maker” shifts toward the equator. Which places are likely to be hurt ? Plus some large areas that still have plenty of rain but are colder.

20. Agriculture starts Irrigation needed South Asia flourishes Anatolia is rainy Greece is rainy Rome expands into Europe Barbarians invade Rome, Han dynasty collapses Vikings, Mongols Ming dynasty collapses Hunters thrive That’s the science behind a simple fact: Climate changes had a big impact on history. That’s the science behind a simple fact: Climate changes had a big impact on history. Global warming is bad for some places and good for others.

21. What about today?

22. The name is covered, because this is about ideas, not personalities

23. Here’s why there are “natural” cycles of climate: Earth’s orbit is not a perfect circle. It’s a wobbly tilt on a wobbly oval.

24. You can find the details on a lot of web sites: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/clisci100ka.html

25. almost 6 peaks in 500,000 years = 1 cycle in roughly 90,000 years. Wobble #1. From a circle (r = 93 million miles) to an ellipse (r = 90 to 95Mmi, in different seasons)

26. about 13 peaks in 500,000 years = 1 cycle in roughly 41,000 years. Wobble #2. From a tilt of about 22.3 degrees to a tilt of nearly 24.5 degrees.

27. about 23 peaks in 500,000 years = 1 cycle in roughly 21,000 years. Wobble #3. From the sun being closer in July to being closer in January.

28. A high point in solar radiation comes roughly once every 100,000 years. Put this all together – sun intensity varies a lot.

29. We also have 450,000 years of temperature data from ice cores in Antarctica. A high point in temperature roughly once every 100,000 years.

30. The record of carbon dioxide show the same five peaks.

31. S U N S H I N E C A R B O N D I O X I D E T E M P E R A T U R E Let’s look at three graphs together, to see how they compare. Solar energy, temperature, and carbon dioxide are obviously related (but it’s complicated).

32. Temperature and carbon dioxide are related, and one conclusion is beyond doubt: temperatures have been higher in the past than they are today.

33. Temperatures were much higher in the distant past and a little higher quite recently. PRESENT AVERAGE

34. BUT, there is a big problem with these graphs. The most recent measurements do not fit on the scale.

35. When we adjust the vertical scale so the numbers all can fit, you can see that carbon dioxide is WAY above its “normal” range.

36. In just a few hundred years, humans have “pushed” the climate system way out of line with “normal” cycles. In 2015, 402

37. In October 2013, the Pacific Ocean had very high temperatures. One result was one of the strongest hurricanes ever measured near the Philippines.

38. Weeks later, this hurricane carried enormous amounts of energy northward.

39. Excessive heat moving toward the pole can push cold air toward the equator can push cold air toward the equator Excessive heat moving toward the pole

40. This map shows world temperature two months later. Winter 2014 was unusually cold in Michigan, BUT look at the average for the globe as a whole. 5 areas “much cooler than average” 0 areas “record coldest” 19 areas “much warmer than average” 9 areas “record warmest”

41. And if you look at the total for the entire year, the imbalance becomes even more obvious.

42. As one Blogger asked: Can global warming be real if it is unusually cold in the United States?

43. As one Blogger asked: Can global warming be real if it is unusually cold in the United States?

45. Interesting fact: these researchers come from universities and government labs in Australia, Argentina, Canada, China, England, Germany, Israel, Italy, Korea, and South Africa, as well as NCAR, NOAA, and 3 U.S. universities.

46. Copyright 2015, Phil Gersmehl Teachers who saw this presentation at a workshop or downloaded it from our internet site have permission to make a copy on their own computers for these purposes: 1. to help them review the workshop, 2. to show the presentation in their own classrooms, at sessions they present at teacher conferences, or to administrators in their own school or district, 3. to use individual frames (with attribution) in their own class or conference presentations. For permission for any other use, including posting frames on a personal blog or uploading to any network or website that can be accessed from outside your school, contact pgersmehl@gmail.com