1. Photo courtesy Corey Deards

2. What is El Nino? El Nino Signal

7. YearONI (Nino 3.4) 1957-58+1.7 (DJF) 1965-66+1.8 (OND) 1972-73+2.0 (OND) 1982-83+2.1 (DJF) 1991-92+1.6 (DJF) 1997-98+2.3 (NDJ) 2009-10+1.3 (DJF) 2015-16+2.3 (OND) Consensus Forecast

8. Winter precipitation in northern Arizona was above normal during 6 out of 7 of the strongest El Niño years, including as recently as 2009-10.

9. Percent of Normal Winter Precipitation During Past El Niño and La Niña Normal

11. Drier Wetter Near Normal Winter Outlook - Precipitation

12. Winter Season Days with 2” or greater Days with 4” or greater Days with 6” or greater Days with 8” or greater 1957-58 15522 1965-66 19521 1972-73 3520117 1982-83 231475 1991-92 241487 1997-98 201295 Average Strong El Niño 231275 Normal 15.37.44.82.4

13. Precipitation: Oct 1 – Nov 30 Flagstaff Prescott Window Rock

14. Off to a Great Start… (Well Above Normal Precip in Flagstaff)

15. So…The El Nino…  Does NOT mean that we’ll get huge storms, just likely to see more storms (which may, or may not be ‘big’).  Does NOT mean that we’ll be colder, or warmer than normal. Official temp forecast is for near normal temperatures.  There still is a slight chance (15%) that it could be drier than normal this year!

16. What to Prepare For This Winter  More frequent winter storms (20-35% more)  Enhanced risk of heavy snow loads.  Increased wear on area roadways.  Enhanced risk of ‘ice dam’ formation on roofs.  Threat of high water in primary streams and rivers.