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Demographic Study Results April 2012 Andrew J. Browne Vice President, Corporate Secretary.

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Presentation on theme: "Demographic Study Results April 2012 Andrew J. Browne Vice President, Corporate Secretary."— Presentation transcript:

1 Demographic Study Results April 2012 Andrew J. Browne Vice President, Corporate Secretary

2 “To call me a clerk is a disservice to those who really keep good records. I was just a guy with a pen who took notes/minutes about 15 years ago when no one else would. Our records are a mess.” Survey Comment – an unidentified clerk of session 2

3 Cross-Functional Team Andy Browne, Office of the President Beth Zornick, Office of the President Peter Sime, Assistance Sharon Castillo, Benefits Todd Ingves, Benefits Mark Frey, Church Relations Lisa Guzzardo, Information Technology Peter Maher, Investments 3

4 Goals of Demographic Study To create a profile of those serving the church from multiple perspectives to produce a more accurate picture of the changing face of ministry. To verify/challenge some of the recent discussions regarding shifts in the Church. To utilize the findings in the analysis of pension and medical plan assumptions and plan design. The data collected and the conclusions drawn from it may inform decisions regarding whether current benefit levels and plan design will meet future needs. This demographic study will be presented to the 2012 General Assembly. 4

5 Report Outline Methodology Two Significant Trend Lines Declining Numbers Aging Populations Results of Note The Number of Small Employers The Value Proposition Potential Implications Q & A 5

6 Methodology: Data Sources Worked with Research Services to develop six different surveys Worked with Board IT staff to track 18 categories of internal data Compared GA Congregational Statistics against Board billing reports 6

7 A Few Surveys 7

8 Surveys Who surveyed Number surveyed Response rate Traditional Program Members1,50059% Affiliated Benefits Program Members1,20045% Non-Installed Pastoral Leaders1,20060% Candidates for Ministry1,16851% Congregations1,20056% Middle Governing Body (Mid-council) Leaders 18968% 8

9 Methodology: Internal Data Active, retired, & new members Ordained, lay, ABP Age, gender, marital status Mandated positions 9

10 Methodology: GA Congregational Statistics Compared OGA’s Congregational Statistics to Board billing data As of 12/31/2004 & 1/01/2005 As of 12/31/2009 & 1/01/2010 10

11 Report Outline Methodology Two Significant Trend Lines Declining Numbers Aging Populations Results of Note The Number of Small Employers The Value Proposition Potential Implications Q & A 11

12 Declining Numbers

13 A 50,000 ft View of PC(USA) and Benefits Plan Membership 13

14 Mandated Pastoral Positions 14

15 Aging Populations

16 Average Age - All Active Members 16

17 Average Age at Plan Entry 17

18 Age Distribution - Ministers 18

19 Report Outline Methodology Two Significant Trend Lines Declining Numbers Aging Populations Results of Note The Number of Small Employers The Value Proposition Potential Implications Q & A 19

20 The Number of Small Employers

21 Employing Organizations and Billed Members 21

22 Value Proposition

23 Value of the Benefits Plan (Congregations) Satisfied or Very Satisfied Not Satisfied Amount they pay for the Medical Plan57%9% Value of what they receive from the Board 74%3% Likely or Very Likely Not Likely Seek to find or investigate alternative medical coverage 32% 38% 23

24 Value of the Benefits Plan (Plan Members) Value of what they receive from the Board Satisfied or Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Not Satisfied Traditional74%15%2% Affiliated Benefits Program (ABP) 62%19%4% 24

25 Report Outline Methodology Two Significant Trend Lines Declining Numbers Aging Populations Results of Note The Number of Small Employers The Value Proposition Potential Implications Q & A 25

26 Potential Implications

27 Age Distribution

28 BOP Plan Age Distribution vs. U.S. Workforce – December 2010 28

29 Medical Costs by Age

30 Medical Costs by Age – Four-Year Average 30

31 Ordinations and New Plan Members

32 Ordinations vs. New Minister Plan Members 32

33 Retirement Age and Social Security

34 Retirement Age Breakdown: Ministers 34

35 Retirement Age Breakdown: Ministers 35

36 Churches of Different Sizes

37 37

38 Churches, Church Membership, and Plan Members by Congregation Size 38

39 Report Outline Methodology Two Significant Trend Lines Declining Numbers Aging Populations Results of Note The Number of Small Employers The Value Proposition Potential Implications Q & A 39

40 Questions... and maybe some answers and your comments and observations 40


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