1. National Integrated Drought Information System National HIC Conference July 31, 2008 Victor Murphy SRH Climate Svc Program Manager

2. NWS Southern Region Drought A normal, recurrent feature of climate. A normal, recurrent feature of climate. Occurs in virtually all climatic zones. Occurs in virtually all climatic zones. Originates from an extended period of time with a deficiency of precipitation. Originates from an extended period of time with a deficiency of precipitation. This deficiency results in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector. This deficiency results in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector. Its impacts often result from the demand people place on water supply. Its impacts often result from the demand people place on water supply. Humans often exacerbate drought impact. Humans often exacerbate drought impact.

3. NWS Southern Region A Normal Recurrent Feature of Climate Late 1910s saw south TX receive record low rainfall amounts (mainly 1917-1918). Late 1910s saw south TX receive record low rainfall amounts (mainly 1917-1918). Dust Bowl of 1930s devastated the Central Plains and exacerbated the Depression of that decade. Dust Bowl of 1930s devastated the Central Plains and exacerbated the Depression of that decade. Drought of record in Texas and Oklahoma occurred in the 1950s and resulted in numerous societal changes (i.e. construction of many lakes in north Texas for conservation and drinking water). Drought of record in Texas and Oklahoma occurred in the 1950s and resulted in numerous societal changes (i.e. construction of many lakes in north Texas for conservation and drinking water).

4. NWS Southern Region Billion Dollar Climate and Weather Disasters Since 1980 11 different heat or drought events…$145B in damage..28% of total monetary damage.

5. NWS Southern Region Federal Reaction to Droughts and Drought Policy GAO study in 1979 recommended a national drought plan due to the aftermath of the mid 1970s drought. GAO study in 1979 recommended a national drought plan due to the aftermath of the mid 1970s drought. Immediate offshoot is an integrated climate monitoring system and a national drought center. The National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, NB is now funded by the USDA. Immediate offshoot is an integrated climate monitoring system and a national drought center. The National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, NB is now funded by the USDA.

6. NWS Southern Region Federal Reaction to Droughts and Drought Policy After a 2003 WGA/NOAA/NDMC meeting, the concept of NIDIS emerges. After a 2003 WGA/NOAA/NDMC meeting, the concept of NIDIS emerges. The NIDIS final report is presented at the WGA annual meeting in 2004 and adopted. The NIDIS final report is presented at the WGA annual meeting in 2004 and adopted. It consists of 5 different key sections, with an emphasis on monitoring, mitigation, outreach, education, and forecasts. It consists of 5 different key sections, with an emphasis on monitoring, mitigation, outreach, education, and forecasts.

7. NWS Southern Region NIDIS Primary sponsors are Rep. Mark Udall of CO and Ralph Hall of TX in the House, and Sen. Nelson of NE and Sen. Domenici of NM in the Senate. Primary sponsors are Rep. Mark Udall of CO and Ralph Hall of TX in the House, and Sen. Nelson of NE and Sen. Domenici of NM in the Senate. NOAA Designated as Lead Agency when NIDIS Act of 2006 introduced in Congress. NOAA Designated as Lead Agency when NIDIS Act of 2006 introduced in Congress.

8. NWS Southern Region Public Law 109-430 passes Congress in 2006. Public Law 109-430 passes Congress in 2006. “The National Integrated Drought Information System Act of 2006.” “The National Integrated Drought Information System Act of 2006.” NOAA establishes a NIDIS Program Office in Boulder, CO. NOAA establishes a NIDIS Program Office in Boulder, CO. Roger Pulwarty named as Director. Roger Pulwarty named as Director.

9. NWS Southern Region “A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.” Public Law 109-430 (2006) “A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.” Public Law 109-430 (2006) NIDIS Vision

10. NWS Southern Region Now, toss in some climate change As per the Findings and Summary of the US Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment: As per the Findings and Summary of the US Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment:  Precip is likely to be less frequent but more intense, and extremes are likely to increase.  Droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some regions. These regions include the US southwest.

11. NWS Southern Region Drought Information: NIDIS Early Warning (sub)Systems Monitoring and forecasting Monitoring and forecasting National, regional and local levels: Existing, gaps, emerging needs Risk assessment Risk assessment Coordinated Federal information should enable resources and disaster management authorities to generate their own risk and impact scenarios, trigger and tools development Coordinated Federal information should enable resources and disaster management authorities to generate their own risk and impact scenarios, trigger and tools development Communication and Preparedness Communication and Preparedness Inform actions required to reduce the loss and damage expected from an impending event and for post-event planning U.S. Drought Portal

12. NWS Southern Region NIDIS VISION and GOALS “A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.” Implementation requires: Coordinate a national drought monitoring and forecasting systemCoordinate a national drought monitoring and forecasting system Creating a drought early warning systemCreating a drought early warning system Providing an interactive drought information delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)Providing an interactive drought information delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc) Designing mechanisms for improved interaction with public (education materials, etc)Designing mechanisms for improved interaction with public (education materials, etc)

13. NWS Southern Region NOAA Western Governors Association USGS Dept. of Interior (BoR) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers USDA (NRCS, ARS, CSREES) NASA Indigenous Waters Network Regional Climate Centers National Drought Mitigation Center Association of State Climatologists Cornell University New Mexico State University Rutgers University South Dakota State University University of Oklahoma University of South Carolina University of Washington The Weather Channel NIDIS Implementation Team Partners (to date): www.drought.gov New: Duke Power U. Georgia Others?

14. Governance Structure for NIDIS Implementation NIDIS Executive Council Co-chairs: Director, NOAA Climate Program Office (or designee) Director, National Drought Mitigation Center (or designee) NIDIS Program Office (NPO Director) Coordinate NIDIS-relevant cross-NOAA and Interagency drought-related activities Develop a national presence for NIDIS (e.g. formal links to National Governors Ass’n) Participate in GEOSS / IEOS Public Awareness And Education Integrated Monitoring and Forecasting Interdisciplinary Research and Applications Engaging Preparedness Communities U.S. Drought Portal NIDIS Program Implementation Team (NPIT) Working-Level Partner Representatives Coordinate and develop evaluation criteria for all NIDIS activities including pilot project selection Chair: NPO Director National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning System Design, Pilots, and Implementation NIDIS Technical Working Groups Federal, Regional, State, Tribal and Local Partner Leads Embedded in national and regional, and local NIDIS Activities Develop pilot implementation and transferability criteria Co-Chairs selected by NPIT

15. NWS Southern Region www.drought.gov Showcase Portlets: 1.) U.S. Drought Monitor (NOAA, USDA, NDMC) 2.) Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Forecast (NOAA) 3.) Drought Impacts Reporter (NDMC) 1. 2. 3. Key Themes 1.) Current Drought 2.) Forecasting 3.) Impacts 4.) Planning 5.) Education 6.) Research

16. NWS Southern Region National Staples in Drought Portal

17. NWS Southern Region National Staples in Drought Portal

18. NWS Southern Region RFC Products in Drought Portal Others?

19. NWS Southern Region

20. Western RCC Desert Research Institute RISA – Pacific Northwest RISA – California RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS High Plains RCC University of Nebraska Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey International Research Institute Northeast RCC Cornell University Climate Prediction Center, Climate Services Division National Climatic Data Center Southeast RCC S.C. Dept. of Natural Resources RISA – Florida Southern RCC Louisiana State University National Center Regional Center RISA’s States Participating In Two Regions RISA – Western Water Physical Sciences Division Pacific ENSO Applications Center RISA – New Hampshire NWS RHQ NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers

21. NWS Southern Region Percent Change in Total Population, 1990-2000 Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Atlas of the United States 5 1 4 3 2

22. NWS Southern Region Multiple competing values Multiple, competing objectives Ecosystems health Hydropower Recreation Flood control Agriculture Consumptive use

23. NWS Southern Region Risk Assessments Prediction Monitoring Impact Mitigation Proactive Planning Improved Adaptation? Engaging research, management and planning communities: Stakeholder defined measures of drought and triggers for decision making Engaging the preparedness communities Integrating Tools: e.g. Drought Portal Coordinating federal, state, and local drought-related activities (e.g., within watersheds and states) Identifying and diffusing innovative strategies for drought risk assessment, communication and preparedness NIDIS Process Model: Implementing NIDIS Pilots

24. NWS Southern Region RFCs are uniquely suited both in spatial coverage of HSA area and unique knowledge of local customer needs to deliver key products and services to meet the needs of water users and decision makers within the ambit of NIDIS.

25. NWS Southern Region Large Parts of the country rely on groundwater Large Parts of the country rely on groundwater Recharge intermittent in many locations Recharge intermittent in many locations Very little is known about how groundwater will change Data lacking yet critical for management and modeling Aquifer Storage and Recovery an old technique with potential to assist with storage issues USGS C. 1186

26. NWS Southern Region Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning Systems Southeast

27. NWS Southern Region Southeast US NIDIS Drought Workshop April 20-30, 2008 in Peachtree City, GA Focused on the ACF/ATC Basins and coastal plains of AL/GA/FL Over 60 attendees from Government and Industry

28. NWS Southern Region Atlanta Journal Constitution Oct. 2007

29. NWS Southern Region NWS River Forecast Centers are providing ongoing regional and state drought information.

30. NWS Southern Region Tri-State Water Briefing January 22, 2008

31. NWS Southern Region A Consistently Deepening and Expanding Drought Opportunities

32. NWS Southern Region NIDIS Opportunities Funding provided to OHD to begin new low flow initiatives. Funding provided to OHD to begin new low flow initiatives.  Targets of Opportunity.  ACT/ATC Basin  Upper Colorado Basin

33. NWS Southern Region Industry-Power/Ag Environment States Feds Cities

34. NWS Southern Region Thank you! Victor Murphy 817-978-2652 x 130 Roger Pulwarty Roger.Pulwarty@noaa.gov 303-497-4425