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Published byBrice Ferguson Modified over 8 years ago
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Bill Zorr Alliant Energy July 22, 2008 Natural Gas in Wisconsin: Market, Transportation Status and Outlook
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Overview Current natural gas market Supply growth opportunities National pipeline expansions Wisconsin pipeline expansions
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Current Market
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Forward Market Winter ‘ 08 Winter ‘ 09 Winter ‘ 10 Winter ‘ 11 Winter ‘ 12 Nymex forwards 7/19/2008
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Supply – Potential Growth Areas Rockies Shale basins Alaskan production LNG imports
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Rockies Production
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Shale Gas Resources
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US Shale Gas Production Improved technology and higher gas prices have led to strong growth from the shale plays. Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Deliveries of Flexible LNG Cargoes Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Global LNG Netbacks – Spot Prices
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Alaskan Production/Pipelines Alaskan Highway Pipeline –31 Tcf proven reserves; 99 Tcf ultimate –1,750 miles, 48” diameter –Initial volume ~ 4 Bcf/day –Ultimate volume ~ 6 Bcf/day Mackenzie Valley Pipeline –9 Tcf proven reserves; 64 Tcf ultimate –740 miles, 30” diameter –Initial volume ~ 1 Bcf/day –Ultimate volume ~ 1.8 Bcf/day
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Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity Additions, 1998-2010
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Pipeline Expansions for Rockies Production
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WI Pipeline Transportation Total Capacity 4.1 Bcf/day
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ANR Pipeline Expansions 2006 168,000 dth/day 8% market delivery increase 2007/08 No major expansions into WI 2009 ~ 100,000 dth/day
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Northern Natural Pipeline Expansions Northern Lights Projects –2007 400,000 dth/day 10% market delivery increase –2008 80,000 dth/day –2009/10 135,000 dth/day
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Guardian Pipeline Expansions 2002 Phase I – 750,000 dth/day –Chicago to SE Wisconsin 2008 Phase II – 540,000 dth/day –SE Wisconsin to Green Bay
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Summary Econ 101 –Increases in Demand Price increases –Increases in Price Supply increases Carbon regulation is expected to increase gas demand Natural gas supply and pipeline infrastructure can meet increases in demand (as long as market supports investment)
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