1. St. George Campus Residence Demand Analysis: Forecast 2020 (UPDATE) Planning and Budget Office July 30, 2014

2. Where we left off … 2  In Spring 2013, Planning & Budget provided a forecast of future demand for residence spaces at the St. George campus  The analysis showed that at least 1,979 additional residence spaces would be required by the year 2020:  721 spaces to meet projected first year demand based on enrolment growth and domestic / international mix;  1,056 spaces to improve access for upper year students and restore the balance to 60% first year, 40% upper year;  202 spaces to meet enrolment growth-related demand from second entry and graduate students. This maintains, but does not improve, access to residence for this group.

3. What has changed? 3  The 2014-15 planning cycle resulted in an increase in the Fall 2020 direct-entry undergraduate enrolment target (5% higher than the previous assumption), as well as an increase in the proportion of international students within that target (revised assumption is 22% international)  Demand for residence is higher among international students (62.4%) than domestic students (38.2%), so general enrolment growth and increased internationalization will both result in a higher demand for residence spaces.  There has been no material change in the assumption of long term second entry and graduate enrolment

4. Current Capacity 2020 Forecast New Spaces First Year Undergraduate (meet demand)3,5374,445908 Upper Year Undergraduate (incr to 40%) 1,784 2,963 1,179 Subtotal, UG Spaces5,3217,4082,087 2 nd Entry / Grad (maintain access) 1,157 1,359 202 TOTAL NEW RESIDENCE SPACES6,4788,767*2,289 Updated Recommendation * Increase of 310 beds over March 2013 forecast

5. Revised Summary 5  RECOMMENDATION: 2,289 NEW SPACES including:  908 spaces to meet projected first year demand based on enrolment growth and domestic / international mix;  1,179 spaces to improve access for upper year students and restore the balance to 60% first year, 40% upper year;  202 spaces to meet enrolment growth-related demand from second entry and graduate students. This maintains, but does not improve, access to residence for this group.