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Lecture 13 GOVT S-1113. Arab Authoritarianism: Hypotheses RELIGION: Islam and democracy are incompatible CULTURE: Arab patriarchy/tribal allegiances RENTIER.

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Presentation on theme: "Lecture 13 GOVT S-1113. Arab Authoritarianism: Hypotheses RELIGION: Islam and democracy are incompatible CULTURE: Arab patriarchy/tribal allegiances RENTIER."— Presentation transcript:

1 Lecture 13 GOVT S-1113

2 Arab Authoritarianism: Hypotheses RELIGION: Islam and democracy are incompatible CULTURE: Arab patriarchy/tribal allegiances RENTIER STATES: oil and patronage EXOGENOUS: Western (esp. United States) foreign policy

3 Economic Factors in the Arab World Income inequality in/across states Low relative GDP growth Low export penetration (except for oil)/isolation from global markets Late/stalled development High unemployment, esp. among young males

4 Social Factors in the Arab World High unemployment/social frustration and anomie Insularity of region/Arabic as common language Arab/Israeli conflict Colonial legacies Weak nationalism/alternative ties (pan-Arabism, tribal, ummat al-Islamiyah) Corrupt/kleptocratic/personalistic elites Demographics/gender disparities

5 Potential Causes of Arab Spring: Reneging on ruling bargains Youth bulge Escalating food costs (esp. post 2008) Illegitimacy of leaders/lack of popular representation Demonstration effects Propitious circumstances Social media

6

7 Tahrir Square, Cairo (9 Feb 2011)

8 Sanaa, Yemen Protests

9 Sirte, Libya (Gaddafi loyalists shell rebels)

10 What Does the Future Hold? Is Democracy Inevitable Everywhere?

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