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Miller – Living in the Environment 13th Ed.
12 The Human Population: Growth, Demography, and Carrying Capacity
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Factors Affecting Human Population Size
Births Deaths Migration Population Change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)
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Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Crude Death Rate (CDR)
number of live births per 1000 people in a population in a given year Crude Death Rate (CDR) Number of deaths per 1000 people in a population in a given year
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© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Crude birth rate CBR Crude death rate CDR World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing countries 24 8 Developing countries (w/o China) 29 9 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
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© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Africa Latin America Asia Oceania United States North Europe 38 14 23 6 20 7 18 15 9 10 11 CBR CDR © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
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Rate of the World’s Annual Population Change
Annual rate of natural population = change (%) Birth rate – Death rate 1000 X 100 Annual rate of natural population = change (%) Birth rate – Death rate 10 =
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Chapter 12 Quiz Given the following data:
Crude birth rate = 23 per thousand Crude death rate = 9 per thousand The Natural Increase Rate is . 1.4 14 1.4/1000 Impossible to calculate from these data alone
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Annual world population growth <1% 1-1.9% 2-2.9% 3+% Data not available Average annual rate of population change in 2002 was 1.28% compared to 2.2% in 1963.
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Population in billions
2.5 10 Growth rate 2.0 8 1.5 6 Population in billions Growth rate (percent) 1.0 4 0.5 2 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Less developed countries More developed countries
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© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
China 1.28 billion 37% 1.5 billion India 1 billion 1.4 billion USA 288 million 4.6% 346 million Indonesia 217 million 282 million Brazil 174 million The worlds 10 most populous countries (2002) 219 million Pakistan 144 million © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 242 million Russia 144 million 129 million Bangladesh 134 million 178 million Japan 127 million 121 million Nigeria 130 million 205 million 2002 2025
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Where are they? Beijing Tibet CHINA NEPAL JAPAN Shanghai Delhi
PAKISTAN INDIA Hong Kong Bhopal Calcutta PACIFIC OCEAN BANGLADESH THAILAND Bombay INDIAN OCEAN PHILIPPINES State of Kerala Bangkok SRI LANKA NEW GUINEA BORNEO INDONESIA
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© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Asia 3.8 billion 4.7 billion Europe 728 million © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 718 million Africa 840 million 1.3 billion Population projections by region ( ) Latin America 531 million 697 million North America 319 million 382 million Oceania 32 million 40 million 2002 2025
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Global Fertility Rates
Replacement level fertility the number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves 2.1 developed undeveloped Total fertility rate (TFR) Estimate of the average number children a woman will have during her childbearing years Actual number of offspring produced through sexual reproduction
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There has been a decline in total fertility rates.
World 5 children per women 2.8 Developed countries 2.5 1.6 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Developing countries 6.5 3.1 Africa 6.6 5.2 There has been a decline in total fertility rates. Latin America 5.9 2.7 Asia 5.9 2.6 Oceania 3.8 2.5 North America 3.5 2.1 Europe 2.6 1.4 1950 2002
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Total Fertility Rates in 2002
Births per woman < 2 4-4.9 2-2.9 5+ 3-3.9 Data not available Total Fertility Rates in 2002
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Population (billions)
Population Projections 12 11 High High 10.9 10 Medium Low 9 Medium 9.3 8 Population (billions) 7 6 Low 7.3 5 4 3 2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year
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Total fertility rates for the US
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Births per woman Replacement level 2.1 2.0 1.5 Baby boom ( ) 1.0 0.5 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
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Births per thousand population
Birth rates in the U.S. 32 30 28 26 Births per thousand population 24 22 20 18 demographic transition End of World War II 16 baby boom echo baby boom 14 Depression Baby bust 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
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Population in millions
600 571 500 400 Population in millions 273 Total population 300 200 76 100 Projections 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year US Population Growth
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Persons added in selected decades (millions) Population in millions
40 34 35 37 30 28 28 27 26 25 25 23 Population in millions 20 14 15 13 9 10 5 1890s 1910s 1930s 1950s 1970s 1990s 2010s 2030s 2050s 2070s 2090s Year US Population Growth
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Comparison of basic demographic data
United States Mexico Canada © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 288 million Population (2002) 102 million 31 million Projected population (2025) 346 million 132 million 36 million Infant mortality rate 6.6 25 5.3 77 years Life expectancy 75 years 79 years 2.1 Total fertility rate (TFR) 2.9 Comparison of basic demographic data 1.5 21% % population under age 15 33% 19% 13% % population over age 65 5% 13% $34,110 Per capita GNI PPP $8,790 $27,170
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Key factors affecting a country’s average birth rate and TFR
Importance of children as a part of the labor force. Urbanization Cost of raising and educating children Educational and employment opportunities Infant mortality rate Average age of marriage Availability of private and public pension system Availability of legal abortions Availability of reliable birth control methods Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms.
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Importance of Death Rates
People started living longer. Increased food supplies Better nutrition Improvements in medical and public health technology Improved sanitation Safer water supplies
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Developed Countries Rate per 1,000 people Year
50 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 40 Rate of natural increase Rate per 1,000 people 30 Crude birth rate 20 Crude death rate 10 Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate – crude death rate 1775 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year
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Developing Countries Rate per 1,000 people Year
50 Crude birth rate © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 40 Rate of natural increase Rate per 1,000 people 30 Crude death rate 20 10 Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate – crude death rate 1775 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year
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Useful indicators of health
Life expectancy Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live Infant mortality rate The number of babies out of every 1000 born who die before their first birthday
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Global life expectancy
Good news Increased from 48 to 67 years in developing countries from 1955 to 2002 Increased from 48 to 76 years in developed countries during same period Bad news Life expectancy in poorest countries is 55 years or less
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Because it reflects the general level of nutrition and health care, infant mortality probably is the single most important measure of a societies quality of life.
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Infant deaths per 1,000 live births Infant Mortality Rates in 2002
<10 10-35 36-70 71-100 100+ Data not available Infant Mortality Rates in 2002
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Population age structure
the proportion of the population (or of each gender) at each age level Age categories Pre-reproduction Ages 0-14 Reproduction Ages Post-reproduction Ages 45 and up
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© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Male Female Male Female Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
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© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Male Female Male Female Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
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Population Age Structure
Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Male Female Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden
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Population (millions) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developed Countries 85+ 80-85 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Age 300 200 100 100 200 300 Population (millions) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
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Population (millions) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developing Countries 85+ 80-85 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Age 300 200 100 100 200 300 Population (millions) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
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Population (2002) Population projected (2025) Infant mortality rate
288 million 174 million 130 million Population projected (2025) 346 million 219 million 205 million Infant mortality rate 6.8 33 75 United States (highly developed) Brazil (moderately developed) Nigeria (less developed) Life expectancy 77 years 69 years 52 years Fertility rate (TFR) 2.1 2.2 5.8 %Population under age 15 21% 33% 44% % Population over age 65 13% 5% 3% Per capita GNI PPP (2000) $34,100 $7,300 $800 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
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Population Age Structure
Male Female Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages
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© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Age Age Females Males Females Males 24 20 20 16 16 12 12 8 1955 8 1985 4 4 4 4 8 8 12 12 Millions 16 Millions 16 20 20 24 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
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© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Age Age Females Males Females Males 20 20 20 20 16 16 12 12 8 8 1955 4 2035 4 4 4 8 8 12 12 16 16 20 Millions 20 Millions 24 24 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
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Number of workers supporting each Social Security beneficiary
40 1945 41.9 workers 30 20 Number of workers supporting each Social Security beneficiary 1950 16.5 10 2075 1.9 1945 2000 2050 2075 Year
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40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 Year Age Distribution (%) Global Aging Rapid population decline can lead to severe economic and social problems. Under age 15 Age 60 or over Age 80 or over
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Effects of population decline from a rise in death rates
Sharp drop in average life expectancy Loss of a countries most productive young adults Sharp rise in number of orphans Drop in food production
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Influencing population size
Migration Most countries restrict immigration Accounts for <1 percent in developing countries Canada, Australia, and U.S. are exceptions Immigration accounted for 40% of population growth in US in 2000 Public strongly supports reducing immigration levels Pros and cons to reducing legal immigration
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Number of legal immigrants (thousands)
2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 1820 1840 1880 1860 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010 Year Number of legal immigrants (thousands) Legal immigration into the U.S. 1907 1914 New laws restrict immigration Europe Latin America and Asia Great Depression
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Can the world provide an adequate standard of living for 3
Can the world provide an adequate standard of living for 3.1 billion more people? Is the earth already over populated? What measures should we take to slow population growth?
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Differing views Asking the wrong question Earth is not over-populated.
What is the earths optimum sustainable population? Earth is not over-populated. Longer life span today proof of capability to sustain greater population Population regulation is a violation of personal freedom Should be able to have as many children as we want. Cannot provide basic necessities for everyone today Raising the death rates for humans Increasing environmental harm
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Hypothesis of demographic transition:
– as counties become industrialized birth and death rates decline
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Relative population size Birth rate and death rate
Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Low High Relative population size (number per 1,000 per year) Birth rate and death rate 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Birth rate Death rate Total population Low growth rate Increasing growth rate Very high growth rate Decreasing growth rate Low growth rate Zero growth rate Negative growth rate Time
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Family Planning Programs which provide educational and clinical services that help couples choose how many children to have and when. Birth spacing Birth control Health care
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Estimated global use of contraceptives
Condom 5% Male sterilization 5% Pill 8% Other methods 10% No method 43% Estimated global use of contraceptives IUD 12% Female sterilization 17%
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Empowering Women Women’s work is never done!
Domestic work Child care Health care Work associated with growing food, hauling water, gathering fuelwood Women have fewer and healthier children when They have access to education They live in societies in which their rights are not suppressed.
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Typical workday for a woman in Africa
4:45 A.M. Wake, wash, and eat 5:00 A.M.- 5:30 A.M. Walk to fields 5:30 P.M.- 3:00 P.M. Work in fields 3:00 P.M.- 4:00 P.M. Collect firewood 4:00 P.M.- 5:30 P.M. Pound and grind corn 5:30 P.M.- 6:30 P.M. Collect water 6:30 P.M.- 8:30 P.M. Cook for family and eat 8:30 P.M.- 9:30 P.M. Wash dishes and children 9:30 P.M. Go to bed
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SLOWING POPULATION GROWTH IN INDIA AND CHINA
For more than five decades, India has tried to control its population growth with only modest success. Since 1970, China has used a government-enforced program to cut its birth rate in half and sharply reduce its fertility rate.
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India China Percentage of world 16% population 21% Population (2000)
1 billion 1.3 billion Population (2025) (estimated) 1.4 billion 1.4 billion Illiteracy (%of adults) 47% 17% Population under age 15(%) 36% 25% Population growth rate (%) 1.8% 0.9% Total fertility rate 3.3 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970) 1.8 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972) Infant mortality rate 72 31 Life expectancy 61 years 71 years GNP per capita (1998) $440 $750
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India’s Failed Family Planning Program
Poor planning. Bureaucratic inefficiency. Low status of women. Extreme poverty. Lack of administrative financial support. Disagreement over the best ways to slow population growth.
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China’s Family Planning Program
Currently, China’s TFR is 1.6 children per women. China has moved 300 million people out of poverty. Problems: Strong male preference leads to gender imbalance. Average population age is increasing. Not enough resource to support population.
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