1. Paradigm shifts for 21 st century food & farming Geoff Tansey Oxford Real Farming Conference 6 January 2014 www.tansey.org.uk

2. 1910s – 2010s – 2050s? Declining powers New powers emerging Legal frameworks Technologies

3. Key trends Economic Concentration Global markets Control Geo-political shifts Revised, Food Policy, OECD, 1981

4. Seed industry structure graphic

5. Picture of Atlantic centred world map showing hunger map

6. Picture of pacific centre world map, upside down

7. Today’s context - the real threats to our world Climate destabilisation Competition over resources Marginalisation of the majority world –Inequality increased in most countries Global militarisation –BTWC, dual use & bio-weapons Sources: Abbott, Rogers and Sloboda, Oxford Research Group; Richard Jolly; Malcolm Dando

8. Differing narratives for sustainability Productivity –techno-fix, economic growth, demand exogenous, [corporate feudalism?] Sufficiency –ecological balance / diversity / equity –small farmers

9. Thinking about systems and how to change them See: Donella H. Meadows, Thinking in Systems - A Primer, Earthscan, 2009

10. Leverage points Rules, incentives, punishments, constraints –Who has power over them Self organisation - power to add, change, evolve system structure –Diversity, variability, experimentation Losing control Goals - purpose or function of system –Core issue, who can change Paradigm - mind set –Shifting changes rest

11. Changing paradigms & practices A new ecological economics To agro-ecological farming from industrial, fossil fuel based model Changing consumption

12. 4 dimensions for action Who acts –Individuals, Indiv in Community, Corporate To what end –Revolution, reform, renaissance, resistance Using what levers –Paradigm, rules, goals …. Addressing power and control

13. DDS/CMT India

14. Home Many peoples Much diversity Global is local Local is global 200 year perspective

15. Thank You www.tansey.org.uk Web page image