1. RAP-ORGANON A Red Alder Plantation Growth Model David Hibbs, David Hann, Andrew Bluhm, Oregon State University

2. RAP-ORGANON Data: OSU’s HSC and Weyerhaeuser Co 53 research installations almost spanning the geographic range of red alder Full site index range 4 planting densities 5 thinning treatments >10^6 observations Up to 6 measurements from a tree Up to 17 year old plantations Develop equations Modify ORGANON model structure (time step) Evaluation – where we are now

3. O R G A N O N ORegon Growth ANalysis and projectiON system Growth & Yield Model for Red Alder Plantations RAP VERSION, EDITION 9.0 by David W. Hann David E. Hibbs and Andrew A. Bluhm College of Forestry Oregon State University This model was funded by: OSU Hardwood Silviculture Cooperative [ 12-01-2010 4:23 PM ]

4. R E S I D U A L S T O C K T A B L E RA I3203 P204 M1 DATA FILE: i3203p204m1 [ 12-02-2010 9:04 AM ] ******************************************************************************* AT| TREES/ CF SCRIB | TREES/ CF SCRIB SPECIES YR| ACRE BA VOL VOL | ACRE BA VOL VOL ******************************************************************************* | ========== ENDING =========== | ========= 23-YR CHANGE Red Alder 30| 312.7 153.8 6140. 20183. | -270.2 118.9 5604.8 20183.5 TOTALS: 312.7 153.8 6140. 20183. -270.2 118.9 5604.8 20183. =============================================================== Stand Density Index: 288. Relative Density Index: 0.951 Quadratic Mean Diameter: 9.5 Height of 40 Largest: 92.8 Mean Diameter: 9.3 Mean Crown Ratio: 0.253 Sum % Largest Crown Areas: 81.1 No thinning

5. Thin age 7 R E S I D U A L S T O C K T A B L E RA I3203 P204 M1 DATA FILE: i3203p204m1 [ 12-02-2010 9:04 AM ] ******************************************************************************* AT| TREES/ CF SCRIB | TREES/ CF SCRIB SPECIES YR| ACRE BA VOL VOL | ACRE BA VOL VOL ******************************************************************************* | ========== ENDING =========== | ========= 23-YR CHANGE = Red Alder 30| 226.8 145.9 5970. 20173.| -6.3 124.9 5629.8 20173.4 TOTALS: 226.8 145.9 5970. 20173. -6.3 124.9 5629.8 20173. ============================================================== Stand Density Index: 259. Relative Density Index: 0.851 Quadratic Mean Diameter: 10.9 Height of 40 Largest: 92.9 Mean Diameter: 10.7 Mean Crown Ratio: 0.261 Sum % Largest Crown Areas: 70.7

6. Thin age 5 R E S I D U A L S T O C K T A B L E RA I3203 P204 M1 DATA FILE: i3203p204m1 [ 12-02-2010 9:04 AM ] ******************************************************************************* AT| TREES/ CF SCRIB | TREES/ CF SCRIB SPECIES YR| ACRE BA VOL VOL | ACRE BA VOL VOL ******************************************************************************* | ========== ENDING =========== | ========= 25-YR CHANGE Red Alder 30| 223.9 148.4 6085. 20622.| -7.3 142.5 6017.0 20622.2 TOTALS: 223.9 148.4 6085. 20622. -7.3 142.5 6017.0 20622. ============================================================= Stand Density Index: 262. Relative Density Index: 0.860 Quadratic Mean Diameter: 11.0 Height of 40 Largest: 93.1 Mean Diameter: 10.9 Mean Crown Ratio: 0.274 Sum % Largest Crown Areas: 74.0

7. Evaluation of RAP-ORGANON for Making Stand-Level Predictions Periodic annual residuals for gross basal area increment per acre (BAG) plotted over length of growth period (1 SD and range).

8. Annual projections  over predicted the mortality rate by about 22%  under predicted survival by somewhat less than one percent  Net increments in basal area per acre and total stem cubic foot volume per acre were also under predicted by approximately 2 to 3%.

9. Longest-possible projections  over predicted the periodic annual mortality rate by nearly 14%  under predicted the periodic annual survival by about 2%  over predicted net periodic annual increments in basal area per acre and total stem cubic foot volume per acre by approximately 2%  over predicted periodic annual top height by just a little.

10. Longest-possible projections  Even with the biases, the RAP-ORGANON was able to explain 72% of the variation in the periodic annual mortality rate 72% of the variation in the periodic annual mortality rate 98% of the variation in periodic annual survival rate 98% of the variation in periodic annual survival rate 78% of the variation in the periodic annual net basal area increment 78% of the variation in the periodic annual net basal area increment 93% of the variation in the top height increment 93% of the variation in the top height increment 85% of the variation in the periodic annual net total stem cubic foot volume increment. 85% of the variation in the periodic annual net total stem cubic foot volume increment.

11. Need beta testers  Available in Regular and DLL  Comes with usable input files  Contact: David.hann@oregonstate.edu David.hann@oregonstate.edu David.hann@oregonstate.edu David.hibbs@oregonstate.edu David.hibbs@oregonstate.edu David.hibbs@oregonstate.edu