1. HAZARD VULNERABILTY ANALYSIS: ISSUES WITH THE CURRENT MODEL Scot Phelps, JD, MPH, Paramedic, CEM/CBCP/MEP Associate Professor of Emergency Management

3. Three Aspects

10. PROBABILITY X HUMAN IMPACT X PROPERTY IMPACT X BUSINESS IMPACT X PREPAREDNESS X INTERNAL RESPONSE X EXTERNAL RESPONSE Three Aspects ( ) /18)

11. PROBABILITY=1 HUMAN IMPACT=1 PROPERTY IMPACT=2 BUSINESS IMPACT=2 PREPAREDNESS=2 INTERNAL RESPONSE=1 EXTERNAL RESPONSE=2 RELATIVE THREAT=.165 Example: Fire

12. THE KAISER HVA ASKS “HOW DOES THIS HAZARD AFFECT THE HOSPITAL?” THE CORRECT QUESTIONS IS “HOW ARE THE HOSPITAL’S BUSINESS PROCESSES EFFECTED BY A HAZARD?” Issue #1: Hospitals are a BUSINESS- Need a Business Impact Analysis.

13. Our Mission is to Care for the Sick and Injured

14. Issue #1: Hospitals are a BUSINESS- Need a Business Impact Analysis. Our Mission is to Manage the Business of Caring for the Sick and Injured

15. HOW DOES THIS BUSINESS UNIT SERVE THE HOSPITAL? Business Impact Analysis.

16. HOW IS IT EFFECTED BY CRISIS “X”? CAN IT STOP AND FOR HOW LONG? WHAT HAPPENS IF IT “BREAKS”? Business Impact Analysis.

17. WHAT OTHER UNITS OF THE HOSPITAL DEPEND ON IT TO FUNCTION? Business Impact Analysis.

18. HOW MANY OF YOU KNOW: HOW LONG YOUR BILLING OFFICE CAN HAVE NO INTERNET ACCESS UNTIL YOUR HOSPITAL IS BANKRUPT? HAVE AUTHORIZED THE PAYROLL COORDINATOR AS “ESSENTIAL PERSONNEL”? Business Impact Analysis.

19. HUMAN IMPACT IS UNDERVALUED Issue #2: People are Important

20. Issue #2: People are MORE Important….

22. MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS CAN BE “OUTWEIGHED” BY MITIGATION, EVEN IF MITIGATION DOES NOT ADDRESS THAT PARTICULAR FACTOR Issue #3: Mitigation Can Hide Magnitude

24. PROBABILITY CAN “BURY” IMPACT AND DISTORT RELATIVE RISK Issue #4: Probability Can Hide Impact

26. Risk IS About Frequency….

27. Risk IS About Frequency…

28. WHICH COMMUNITY HAS MORE “RISK” WHEN IT SNOWS? Risk IS About Frequency….

29. WHICH COMMUNITY HAS MORE “RISK” WHEN IT SNOWS? Risk IS About Frequency…. New York’s Relative Risk=.44

30. WHICH COMMUNITY HAS MORE “RISK” WHEN IT SNOWS? Risk IS About Frequency…. London’s Relative Risk=.43

31. “BLIZZARD OF ANGER FOLLOWS LONDON SNOWSTORM”-ASSOCIATED PRESS "ONE OF THE WORLD'S BIGGEST ECONOMIES SHOULD NOT BE GRINDING TO A HALT…” $4.3 BILLION COST IN LOST PRODUCTIVITY Risk IS About Frequency….

32. What We Should Worry About…. Low Frequency/High Impact High Frequency/Low Impact (Kaiser Model) High Frequency/High Impact (Kaiser Model) Low Frequency/Low Impact

33. Inside the Low Frequency/High Impact Box…. Fast Decision Required Slow Decision Required

34. Inside the Low Frequency/High Impact Box…. Fast Decision Required Slow Decision Required Fast Decision Required

35. “Red Flag” Sentinel Risks Red Flag Risk

36. “Red Flag” Sentinel Risks Yellow Flag Risk

37. WHAT WE DO: CRITICAL FUNCTIONS Revised Model

38. ADMINISTRATION ENGINEERING SUPPLY CHAIN DATA CENTER/IT EMS EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT SURGERY CLINIC/OUTPATIENT OPERATIONS INPATIENT OPERATIONS SECURITY FOOD SERVICE HOUSEKEEPING LABORATORY PHARMACY Critical Functions

39. WHAT WE NEED TO DO IT: CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Revised Model

40. SITE ARCHITECTURAL STRUCTURAL SYSTEMS BUILDING ENVELOPE UTILITY SYSTEMS MECHANICAL SYSTEMS PLUMBING & GAS SYSTEMS ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS FIRE ALARM SYSTEMS COMMUNICATION & IT SYSTEMS EQUIPMENT OPERATIONS & MAINTENANCE SECURITY SYSTEMS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Critical Infrastructure

41. Revised Model

45. Asset Value-How Critical Is It to the Mission?

46. Threat (cumulative)-What Can Happen?

47. Vulnerability-How Protected is the Asset?

48. Human Impact Factor

49. “Red Flag” Sentinel Risks Red Flag Risk

50. “Red Flag” Sentinel Risks Yellow Flag Risk

51. For Each Agent/Hazard ValueThreatVulnerabilityHumanValueThreatVulnerabilityHuman Critical InfrastructureCritical Infrastructure Critical Functions

53. For Each Agent/Hazard CI-Natural Hazards CF-Natural Hazards CI-Technological Hazards CF-Technological Hazards CI-Human Hazards CF-Human Hazards CI-Hazardous Materials CF-Hazardous Materials

54. NEED TO UNDERSTAND IMPACT ON BUSINESS UNITS HUMAN IMPACT IS MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR NEED TO LOOK FOR OUTLIERS IN HIGH VALUE/HIGH THREAT /HIGH VULNERABILITY ASSETS KAISER MODEL CAN BURY HUMAN IMPACT IN IMPACTS, MITIGATION, OR PROBABILITY CONCLUSION

55. SCOT PHELPS, JD, MPH, PARAMEDIC, CEM/CBCP/MEP ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT STATE UNIVERSITY 144 FARNHAM AVENUE NEW HAVEN, CT 06515 PHELPSS1@SOUTHERNCT.EDU QUESTIONS?