1. SPIDER Solutions Nigeria
TECHNO-ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM FOR OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION IN YOBE STATE, NIGERIA
Presented at Nigerian Solar Energy Forum and Exhibition, 6th -7th May, 2015, Reiz Continental Hotel, Abuja, Nigeria
Uduak S. Akpan, Salisu R. Isihak, Ye-Obong N. Udoakah
SPIDER Solutions Nigeria

2. TABLE OF CONTENT BACKGROUND ELECTRICITY ACCESS SITUATION IN NIGERIA
ELECTRIFICATION OPTIONS
METHODOLOGY
MODEL
ASSUMPTIONS/SPECIFICATIONS
RESULTS
BASE CASE
SCENARIOS
CONCLUSION

3. ELECTRICITY ACCESS SITUATION IN NIGERIA (2013)
1.3 billion people in the world; over 600 million in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) do not have access to electricity (IEA, 2014)
Electricity Access rate in Nigeria = 56% (NPC, 2014)
Majority are rural dwellers who often live far from the existing grid
Rural communities have dispersed settlement pattern, low electricity demand, and are low income earners.
Low electricity demand: Electricity demand is mainly for household and institutions (schools, primary health centers, mosques) lighting, entertainment (TV, radio, DVDs etc), and to power appliances/equipments used in micro and small scale enterprises.
Fig (object ‘3’) shows the disparity in electricity access in the different regions in Nigeria and it’s used to buttress the point “Situation in the different parts of Nigeria is different and the North-East geopolitical zone of Nigeria is worst”
Fig (object’5’) is shows the coverage of the transmission grid and is used to buttress the point “Majority are rural dwellers and some times far from the existing grid” which logically follows the previous fig.
Fig (object ‘7’) shows the sparse population density in the North East compared to other regions, and it buttresses the point “Rural communities have dispersed settlement pattern, low electricity demand, and are low”. It also complements the argument of the earlier points to advocate for off-grid electrification
Figure 1: Electricity access rate in Nigeria by states
Source of data: NPC (2014)
Figure 2: Population density of states
Source of data: NPC (2006)

4. Figure 3: Coverage of the existing grid in Nigeria
Source: Transmission Company of Nigeria

5. ELECTRIFICATION OPTIONS
Nigeria seeks to expand access to electricity in rural areas
Electrification options: grid-extension, off-grid (including stand alone systems)
Electricity sector is privatized and private sector is driven by profit maximization motives.
Given the issues listed earlier, grid extension is less likely, off-grid may be more feasible for states with low electricity access
Which off-grid technology?
The figure here shows the solar irradiation potential of North east geopolitical zone. This is the basis for choosing solar as the preferred off-grid technology in the region

6. METHODOLOGY / SPECIFICATIONS
We use RETScreen
Average monthly solar irradiation level in some locations in Northern Nigeria (in kWh/m2/day)
Although other places may have higher average annual solar irradiation, Nguru is selected since there is data
PROJECT SITE
Nguru, Yobe State.
High average annual solar irradiation (6.12 kWh/m2/day)

7. Electricity demand profile of community (up to year 5)
Description
Base case load
Hours of use per day
Days of use per week
5 x 10W x LCD bulbs x 100 households
5000
8.00 7
1 x 160W x television x 100 households
16000
15.00
1 x 15W x DVD x 100 households
1500
1 x 400W x refrigerator x 40 households
18.00
3 x100W x others household appliances x 50 households
15000 6
2 x 400W x refrigerator x 1 health centre
800
10 x 100W x appliances x 1 health centre
1000
10 x 100W x appliances x 1 school 5
3 x 100W x appliances x 1 mosque
300
4.00
N/B: All items use AC current; the average daily electricity demand is kWh; the annual electricity demand is MWh; the maximum load for the system is 56.7kW; and the study assumes peak load of 72kW.

8. SPECIFICATIONS contd PV module specification PV module cost
The study selects mono-Si - HIP-215NKHA5.
Rated Power (215W)
Maximum Power Voltage (42.0V)
Maximum Power Current (5.13A)
Normal Operating Condition Temperature (460C)
Module Area (1.26m2)
Weight (16Kg)
Dimensions L x W x H (1580 x 798 x 46 mm) etc
PV module cost
Unit cost of the photovoltaic panel: US$3200/kW
System cost = 85% of total cost
You’ll need to justify the selection of the panel when presenting
The
Battery & Inverter specification
Inverter: 24kW, 90% efficiency, 5% miscellaneous losses, lifespan of 5 years.
Battery: 3 x 24V 1200 Ah battery, 80% maximum depth of discharge, 90% charge controller efficiency, one day one day of autonomy, and lifespan of 5 years.
Financial variables
Inflation rate (9%)
80% of the cost of the project will be financed with term loan of 15 years at 14% interest rate.

9. SPECIFICATIONS contd - Configuration

10. Off-grid electrification (base case)
RESULTS
Grid-electricity
The total annual cost of paying for the grid-electricity at a tariff level of US$0.074/kWh (i.e. US$1 = ₦200) would have been US$22,070.
This is the annual cost saving for the off-grid option
Assuming the electricity tariff is not reviewed, households will spend US$66,850 in 25 years on electricity bills
Off-grid electrification (base case)
With this annual cost savings from the grid-electricity option the off-grid option results in a negative net present value of -US$255,313
IRR on equity (4.4%); IRR on asset (0.9%); simple payback time (27.3years); equity payback time (20.9 years)
Cumulative Cash-flow graph

11. Sensitivity (Breakeven) Analysis
- Electricity tariff level Cost of solar PV system Government grant
Financial indicators for the breakeven analysis

12. Sensitivity (Breakeven) Analysis Contd.
Cumulative cash-flow graph for electricity tariff level and cost of PV system
Cumulative cash-flow graph for amount of start-up grant

13. Conclusion and recommendations
Off-grid electrification using solar PV system may viable in Yobe State with adequate economic and financial incentives from government support such as the provision of low interest loans or financial grants as stated in the revised renewable energy masterplan
Government should create mechanisms to support private sector investment in mini-grid based off-grid electrification programmes using PV systems in Yobe
A legal and regulatory framework that encourages private sector participation in ensuring access to electricity in rural areas should be introduced

14. Website: www.spidersolutionsnigeria.com
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