1. The Conflict Between the trend of Living in Empty Nests and Changes of Self-Supporting Ability of Chinese Elderly Zhenwu Zhai Population and Development Studies Center, People ’ s University of China

2. China Society:Rapid Changing Economy High Growth rate for more than 20 years GDP per Capita quadrupled Market economy(reform) Society Multi-structure Gap increasing between rich and poor

3. China Society:Rapid Changing Population Fertility decline Migration and flowing peasant-workers High Sex ratio Aging

4. Status and Trend of Self- Supporting Ability Data The healthy longevity survey in china, 2000( HLS) The sampling survey of the aged population in china,2000, (SAP) Census Data Survey on supporting system for elderly,1992 （ SSE ）

5. Self-supporting ability Status of Medical care security Daily care and nursing service available Economic status Current situation Compare with 1992 Depending on Children-support as First Choice Main income source

6. Status of Rural Elderly Entitled to Medical Security(SAP) YesNo Public Medical expense 3.097.0 Commercial medicare 099.8 Cooperate Medical care 10.988.9 Others 32.767.2

7. Rural Elderly in Need of Daily Life by Age Group （ % ） Total60-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+ Total100.0 No93.096.695.993.689.281.370.4 Yes6.62.83.86.210.218.329.6 No Answer 0.40.50.30.20.70.4 Data Source: SAP,2000

8. Community home nursing service available,hire and demand status of rural elderly answer% Not available95.4 Available4.4 Not used98.7 Ever used0.9 Not need79.5 Need20.4

9. Rural Elderly Feeling Their Savings Enough for Self-support by Age(%) Total60-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+ Total100.0 No73.372.575.470.772.080.868.8 Yes25.426.923.627.726.217.325.0 No Answe r 1.30.61.11.61.9 6.3 Data Source: SAP,2000

10. Elderly Feeling Their Savings Enough for Self-support by Area(%) RuralUrban Total100.0 No73.348.5 Yes25.448.6 No Answer1.32.8 Data Source: SAP,2000

11. Self-rated on economic status of Aged population by Area (1992&2000) YearArea Have a Surplus Just Enough Rather Difficult Very DifficultTotal 2000 Urba n 2257.216.14.6100 Rural 10.448.833.57.3100 1992 Urba n 15.363.915.95100 Rural 12.753.122.711.6100 Data sourse:(1),SAP, 2000 （ 2 ） SCSSE,1992

12. Rural Elderly Depending on Children- support as First Choice, by Age(%) Total 60- 64 65-6970-7475-7980-8485+ Total100.0 First choice79.177.17880.280.984.879.5 Second choice 16.117.416.815.614.712.616 Third choice2.73.12.92.52.81.22.6 Fourth choice2.02.42.21.71.51.41.9 Data Source: SAP,2000

13. Rural Elderly Depending on Children- support as First Choice, by Gender(%) TotalMaleFemale Total100.0 First choice79.176.882.0 Second choice16.117.514.4 Third choice2.73.12.3 Fourth choice2.02.61.2 Data Source: SAP,2000

14. Main Income Sources of Elderly by Age(%) Main Source 60-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+ Total100.0100.00 100 Labor Income49.9737.6622.8814.557.134.78 Pension22.1421.6819.3915.3111.908.95 Support by Other Family Member 25.5037.5153.4365.1575.5080.94 Others2.393.154.314.995.475.32 Data Source :The Fifth Census,2000

15. Income Sources of Elderly by Age(%)

16. Income Sources of Elderly by Area & Gender(%) Data Source :The Fifth Census,2000 Main Source CityTownRural MaleFemaleMale Femal e Male Femal e Total100 Labor Income14.85.7127.412.4154.931.94 Pension70.8846.0644.0614.838.631.05 Support by Other Family Members 11.3643.3223.7467.3632.964.24 Basic Living Security 1.583.352.242.961.410.82 Others1.381.552.552.452.181.95

17. Income Source of Elderly by Area(%),1994 &2000 Main Source 20001994 cityruralcityrural Total100 Labor Income10.143.1514.329.18 Pension58.054.7648.544.39 Support by Other Family Member 27.8848.9234.9464.23 Others3.973.172.222.2

18. Self-supporting ability Very low level of Status of Medical care security Daily care and nursing service from community NOT available Economic status: not improved much since 1992 in rural Heavily Depending on Children-support Main income source:still from family and own work Society changes,but nochang of self- supporting ability

19. What the trend of empty nest?

20. Empty nest family status(%),2000 2000 census data

21. Distribution of empty nest （ % ） 2000 census data

22. Distribution of Activities of Daily Living of the Elders by Living Arrangement(%) Activity of daily livingAlone With spouse only In a nursingTotal Fully independent89.3681.8966.7479.81 Relatively independent6.2612.3220.8613.36 Relatively dependent1.691.973.591.92 Fully dependent2.693.818.814.91 Total100.00 Data source: HLS,2000

23. Increase of Rural Empty Nest Family 1982 （ 60 ）、 1997 、 1999 、 2001 empty nest family （ % ） year 空巢家庭 Non empty nest family empty nest family alone Only with spouse 198212.647.944.7087.36 199721.7511.0110.7477.96 199922.0010.7311.2777.71 200124.8212.3312.4975.12 Data source:1982 census ； 1997 、 1999 、 2001 pop sampling survey

24. Trend of empty nest family Nuclear family increase in rural(independent) Young people flow to urban 140 million flowing population Staying at home: ” 389961 ” Lower fertility, higher probability of empty family due to fewer children Early age of ending childbearing, early age facing empty nest percentage of empty nest family will increase rapidly in the future

25. Conclusion Conflict between trend of empty nest family and unimproved self supporting ability of elderly High risk if fully depending on children Rural also needs community service system Must establish social security in rural soon Principle: coverage first, level second Must take action now, otherwise elderly will not face a better life, but relative worse one in the future, the older, the higher risk of facing empty nest, and the worse.

26. Thank you