1. Chapter 7 The Human Population

2. Slowing Population Growth in China: A Success Story 1.3 billion people Promotes one-child families Contraception, abortion, sterilization Fast-growing economy Serious resource and environmental problems Fig. 6-1, p. 125

3. China’s One Child Policy 1.Created in 1979 to temporarily limit communist China's population growth 2.Most strictly applies to Han Chinese (91%) living in urban areas (51%) of the country. It does not apply to ethnic minorities. In rural areas, Han Chinese families can apply to have a second child if the first child is a girl. 3.Allows two singleton children to marry and have two children. 4.If a first child is born with birth defects or major health problems, the couple is usually permitted to have a second child.

4. China’s One Child Policy 5. In 1979, China's population was about 972 million people. In 2012 the population of China is about 1.343 billion people, 138% growth over the last 33 years. 6. China is expected to peak in population around 2030 with 1.46 billion people and then begin falling to 1.3 billion by 2050. 7. China is expected to achieve ZPG by 2025. By 2050, China's population growth rate will be -0.5%. 8. China's sex ratio at birth is ~113 boys :100 girls. There is evidence of sex-selective abortion, neglect, abandonment, and even infanticide of infant females.

5. China’s One Child Policy 9. Incentives: higher wages, better schooling and employment, and preferential treatment in obtaining governmental assistance and loans. Sanctions: fines, employment termination, and difficulty in obtaining governmental assistance. 10. Families permitted to have a second child have to wait from three to four years after the birth of the first child before conceiving their second child. 11. Total fertility rate for Chinese women was 5.91 in 1966 and 1967; 2.91 in 1978; 1.55 in 2012. (Immigration accounts for the remainder of the Chinese population growth rate.)

6. Human Population Growth Fig. 1-18, p. 21

7. Population Time Line: 10,000 BC - 2042 Figure 3, Supplement 9

8. Five Most Populous Countries, 2010 and 2050 Fig. 6-4, p. 127

9. Projecting Population Change: Disagreement Over Earth’s Carrying Capacity Why range of 7.8-10.8 billion for 2050? Demographers must: 1. Determine reliability of current estimates 2. Make assumptions about fertility trends 3. Deal with different databases and sets of assumptions Fig. 6-A, p. 128

10. How Long Can The Human Population Keep Growing? Thomas Malthus and population growth: 1798 Malthus also saw that societies through history had experienced at one time or another epidemics, famines, or wars: events that masked the fundamental problem of populations overstretching their resource limitations Overpopulation and overconsumption Will technology increase human carrying capacity? Can the human population grow indefinitely? Fig. 6-B, p. 129

11. How Long Can The Human Population Keep Growing? The Population Bomb is a best-selling book written by Stanford University Professor Paul R. Ehrlich and his wife, Anne Ehrlich, in 1968. “ The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate…” Ways to control population growth in the US: "temporary sterilants” to the water supply or staple foods Additional children would add to a family's tax burden at increasing rates for more children, as well as luxury taxes on childcare goods Incentives for men who agree to permanent sterilization before they have two children, as well as a variety of other monetary incentives Create a powerful Department of Population and Environment which "should be set up with the power to take whatever steps are necessary to establish a reasonable population size in the United States and to put an end to the steady deterioration of our environment." [ Legislation should be enacted guaranteeing the right to an abortion, and sex education should be expanded. Ways to control population growth worldwide: Countries with sufficient programs in place to limit population growth, and the ability to become self-sufficient in the future would continue to receive food aid. Fig. 6-B, p. 129

12. The Human Population Can Grow, Decline, or Remain Fairly Stable Population change Births: fertility Deaths: mortality Migration Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration) Crude birth rate: # live births/1000/year Crude death rate: # deaths/1000/year Figure 11, Supplement 8 Growth for 2010

13. Women Having Fewer Babies but Not Few Enough to Stabilize the World’s Population Fertility rate number of children born to a woman during her lifetime Replacement-level fertility rate Average number of children a couple must have to replace themselves 2.1 in developed countries Up to 2.5 in developing countries Figure 12, Supplement 8 Fertility Rate in 2010

14. Total fertility rate, 1955-2010 Fig. 6-5, p. 130 Total fertility rate (TFR) Average number of children born to women in a population Replacement level fertility TFR required to offset the average number of deaths in a population and for the current population size to remain stable relatively low levels of industrialization and income of less that $3 per person per day relatively high levels of industrialization and income

15. The U.S. Population Is Growing Rapidly Fig. 6-6, p. 131

16. Fig. 6-7, p. 132 Changes in lifestyle in the U.S. during the 20 th century The U.S. Population Is Growing Rapidly

17. Several Factors Affect Birth Rates and Fertility Rates Children as part of the labor force Cost of raising and educating children Availability of private and public pension Urbanization Educational and employment opportunities for women Fig. 6-8, p. 132

18. Fig. 6-9, p. 133 Child Laborers in India

19. Several Factors Affect Birth Rates and Fertility Rates Average age of a woman at birth of first child Availability of legal abortions Availability of reliable birth control methods Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms

20. Declining Death Rates The dramatic increase in Earth’s human population in the last 200 years has happened because death rates have declined more rapidly than birth rates. Doubling Time: 70/ % Growth rate = years to double Percent change: new-old/old x 100 The dramatic increase in Earth’s human population in the last 200 years has happened because death rates have declined more rapidly than birth rates.

21. Several Factors Affect Death Rates Life expectancy Infant mortality rate Number of live births that die in first year Why are people living longer? Increased food supply and distribution Better nutrition Medical advances Improved sanitation Figure 13, Supplement 8 Infant Mortality in 2010

22. Life Expectancy Life expectancy- the average number of years that an infant born in a particular year in a particular country can be expected to live, given the current average life span and death rate of that country.

23. Life Expectancy Infant mortality rate- the number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births. Child mortality rate- the number of deaths of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births.

24. Migration Affects an Area’s Population Size Economic improvement Civil war Religious freedom Political freedom Environmental refugees

25. The United States: A Nation of Immigrants Historical role of immigration in the U.S. Legal immigration Illegal immigration Controversy over immigration policy Fig. 6-11, p. 135

26. Fig. 6-12, p. 136 Generalized Population Age-Structure Diagrams Seniors are the fastest-growing age group

27. Fig. 6-13, p. 136 Population Structure by Age and Sex in Developing and Developed Countries

28. Fertility Rates in the United States In 1972, the total fertility dropped below replacement level for the first time in US History.

29. The American Baby Boom 79 million people, 36% of adults Affect politics and economics Now becoming senior citizens Fig. 6-14, p. 137

30. Populations Made Up of Mostly Older People Can Decline Rapidly Fig. 6-15, p. 138

31. Managing Japan’s Aging Population As births in Japan currently average 1.3 babies per woman, the government estimates that 40 % of the population will be over 65 by 2055. The Japanese government hopes the robots will fill the gaps that are expected by 2030, since the country is opposed to large-scale immigration. Robots could potentially fill the positions of about 3.5 million workers.

32. Managing Japan’s Aging Population Robot for Interactive Body Assistance (RIBA) Robotic Therapy Pet Twendy-One

33. Managing Japan’s Aging Population Robot Interacting with Humans (RI-MAN) Hospi-RIMO Hair Washing Robot

34. Populations Can Decline from a Rising Death Rate: The AIDS Tragedy 27 million killed: 1981-2009 Sharp drop in life expectancy Worldwide, AIDS is the leading of death for people ages 15–49 Many young adults die = loss of most productive workers Botswana Age Structure, With and Without AIDS

35. Fig. 6-17, p. 140 Four Stages of the Demographic Transition

36. Fig. 6-18, p. 140 TFR in Bangladesh and U.S., 1800-2010 What role do you think economic development has played in the different paths that these two countries have taken toward making a demographic transition? Factors that decrease total fertility rates: Ability to control fertility Education Paying jobs

37. Women and Fertility The factors most clearly related to a decline in birth rates are increasing education and economic independence for women. In the demographic transition model, the lower death rate of the second stage is usually the result of increased levels of education. Educated women find that they do not need to bear as many children to ensure that some will survive. They may also learn family planning techniques.

38. Family Planning Family planning- the regulation of the number or spacing of offspring through the use of birth control. Family planning in less- developed countries Responsible for a 55% drop in TFRs Financial benefits: money spent on family planning saves far more in health, education costs

39. Slowing Population Growth in India 1.2 billion people, most populous country in 2015 Problems Poverty Malnutrition Environmental degradation Bias toward having male children Poor couples want many children Only 48% of couples use family planning

40. Managing India’s Population Growth India’s policy of providing financial incentives for sterilization operations in an effort to meet the “Millennium Development Goals” set for them by the United Nations, which demands that India reduce its birth rate to 2 children per mother by 2015. Presently, a full 37% of India’s female population has undergone sterilization, and 1% of the male population has undergone vasectomies.

41. Managing India’s Population Growth India's population in 1979 was 671 million and in 2012 India's population is 1.205 billion people, which is 180% over the 1979 population. By most estimates, India will surpass China as the world's most populous country by 2027 or earlier, when both countries' population is expected to reach about 1.4 billion.

42. The 12 Most Populous Countries in the World Affluence - having a lot of wealth such as money, goods, or property.

43. The IPAT Equation To estimate the impact of human lifestyles on Earth we can use the IPAT equation: I mpact= P opulation × A ffluence × T echnology Thailand Japan

44. The Impact of Affluence Gross domestic product (GDP)- the value of all products and services produced in a year in that country. GDP is made up of consumer spending, investments, government spending, and exports minus imports. A countries GDP often correlates with its pollution levels.

45. Urban Impacts Urban populations represent ½ of the human population Urban populations consume ¾ of the Earth’s resources ~75% of the population