1. 21-22 March 2005 LMD, Palaiseau, France CHIMERE workshop Air quality assessment for Portugal A. Monteiro, C. Borrego, A.I. Miranda, R. Vautard Universidade de Aveiro, Portugal

2. objectives......to contribute to the air quality evaluation, according to the AQ Framework Directive...to verify the fulfilment of the Daughter Directives for NO 2, SO 2, CO and specially O 3

3. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Prediction) meteorology 3D fields Wind Temperature Specific humidity 2D fields Superficial pressure Cloud cover Precipitation CHIMERE gas-phase photochemistry 3D fields Pollutants concentration O 3, NO 2, NO, CO, COV, SO 2 2D fields Pollutants deposition methodology...model system

4. methodology...study domain 1 a simulation at continental scale 10.5W 22.5E 35N 57.5N Initial and background conditions MOZART climatological model emissions EMEP inventory vertical structure 6 levels (50, 250, 600, 1200, 2000 e 3000 m) simulation period 2001 50x50 km

5. methodology...study domain “simple one-way technique” 2 a simulation nested to PORTUGAL domain

6. methodology...study domain 290 km 580 km 10x10 km Initial and background conditions simulated outputs 50x50 km emissions “top-down” methodology (VII CNA: Monteiro et al, 2001) 2 a simulation nested to PORTUGAL domain

7. AQ standart (µg.m -3 ) Nº of allowed excedeences Target date SO 2 (1999/30/EC) 35024 times/year1 Jan 2005 1253 times/year1 Jan 2005 20- - -- NO 2 (1999/30/EC) 20018 times/year1 Jan 2010 40-1 Jan 2010 CO (2000/69/EC) 10 mg.m -3 -1 Jan 2005 O 3 (2002/3/EC) 12025 times/year1 Jan 2010 18000 µg.m - 3.h -1 Jan 2010 180-- Parameters Human health protection Vegetation protection Human health protection Human health protection (target value) Vegetation protection (AOT40) (target value) Information threshold Alert threshold Period Hourly average Daily average Anual average Winter average Hourly average Anual average 8h running average Hourly average (May-July) hourly average Hourly average 2403 consecutive h- air quality assessment

8. SO 2 human health protection air quality assessment...2001! limite value limite value Porto Lisbon

9. human health protection air quality assessment...2001! NO 2 limite value limite value

10. human health protection air quality assessment...2001! CO

11. human health protection air quality assessment...2001! O3O3 limite value

12. VALOR-ALVO PROTECÇÃO VEGETAÇÃO OBJECTIVO LONGO-PRAZO PROTECÇÃO VEGETAÇÃO vegetation protection AOT exceedances air quality assessment...2001! O3O3

13. Air Quality National network background stations industrial stations traffic stations 23 5 17 45 validation exercise

14. Polutant Error SO 2 0,34 0,57 0,43 0,54 NO 2 0,48 0,50 CO 0,32 O3 O3 0,16 0,59 Parameters Human health protection (hourly limit value) Human health protection(daily limit value) Vegetation protection (annual limit value) Vegetation protection (winter limit value) Human health protection (hourly limit value) Human health protection (annual limit value) Human health protection (daily 8h limit value) Vegetation protection (AOT40) (annual average) 0,40 validation exercise...quantitatively

15. STATIONTYPE RMSE (µg.m -3 ) rbias RMSE (µg.m -3 ) r RMSE (µg.m -3 ) r AVABackground18.460,78-5,0421,710,5924,550,48 MVEBackground19.000,66-3,569,360,5333,120,49 LOUBackground19.930,85-6,9929,200,6830,430,59 PPBackground20.100,80-2,8635,260,5937,650,40 BEABackground21.950,73-9,2233,850,4932,650,53 REBBackground22.160,71-4,2333,500,6325,510,66 ALFBackground22.410,6510,3830,390,5333,500,47 LECBackground22.550,73-13,2532,160,6229,980,56 ERMBackground22.830,78-10,4132,850,5826,240,61 LARBackground22.850,77-10,1035,880,6432,620,54 VNTBackground25.500,64-11,6634,340,6332,250,53 average 220.7 -7.8 330.4 340.4 NO 2 SO 2 O3O3

16. validation exercise...quantitatively background industrial traffic observed simulated O 3 (µg.m -3 ) good agreement overestimation

17. modelled measured modelled measured NO 2 O 3 Experimental campaigns with difusion tubes validation exercise...quanlitatively

18. episode days...

19. sensitivity tests... V 2004 10 V 2003 03 MM5 ECMWF MM5 ECMWF

20. future work... operational air quality forecast for Portugal 10x10 km with zoom to Lisbon and Porto area aerosols version simulation forest fire emissions estimation and its integration in the forecast air quality system...

21. Thank you!