1. Potential benefits of long-distance electricity transmission in China for air quality and climate Wei Peng*, Denise Mauzerall, Jiahai Yuan, Yu Zhao, Meiyun Lin, Qiang Zhang * Science, Technology and Environmental Policy Program Woodrow Wilson of Public and International Affairs Princeton University 33 rd USAEE Annual Meeting Pittsburgh, PA Oct 2015

2. China: Air Pollution and Climate Challenges Local Issue Severity: - 1.2 million premature deaths in 2010 Recent action: Record-high smog events in recent years  China declare(d) war against air pollution Air pollution Global Issue Severity: World largest carbon emitter Recent action: US-China Climate deal  Peak carbon emissions by 2030 Climate 2

3. Smog Events Tiananmen Square, Beijing, Jan 2013 Source: http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/29/asia/gallery/beijing-smog/ 3

4. China: Air Pollution and Climate Challenges Local Issue Severity: - 1.2 million premature deaths in 2010 (GBD 2010) Recent action: Record-high smog events in recent years  China declare(d) war against air pollution Air pollution Global Issue Severity: World largest carbon emitter Recent action: US-China Climate deal  Peak carbon emissions by 2030 Climate 4

5. Electricity Transmission Corridors for Air Pollution Control 12 west-to-east transmission lines to reduce eastern coal power generation and the associated air pollution UHV: ultra-high-voltage i.e. 1000KV AC or ±800KV DC 5

6. Objective -Estimate air quality and climate benefits of the proposed transmission lines, if powered only by coal v.s mostly by renewables -Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the energy-by-wire strategy to the most commonly-used bulk energy transfer strategy at present, i.e. coal-by-rail 6

7. Scenario Name Explanation Base Case, BASEActual electricity production and emissions in 2010 Eastern provincesWestern provinces Coal-by-rail, CbR - small, inefficient coal units + large, efficient coal units No change Energy- by-wire Coal-by-wire, CbW - small, inefficient coal units + large, efficient coal units (RE+Coal)-by-wire, (RE+C)bW + renewable (wind and hydro) and large coal units Method: Scenario analysis 7

8. Method: Integrated assessment 8 ΔElectricity generation ΔAir pollutant emissions ΔSimulated air quality ΔMortality impact ΔMonetized benefits Air quality benefits: ΔElectricity GenerationΔCO2 emissionsΔMonetized value Climate benefits: Cost: Annualized transmission and production costs IM: -1/3 EX: double CO 2(national) Coal-based: -1% (RE+C)bW: -3% SO 2(IM+EX) and NO x(IM+EX) Coal-based: -3%, -7% (RE+C)bW: -6%, -9%

9. Surface PM 2.5 simulated using regional air pollution modeling (WRF-Chem) 9 Energy-by-wire: 2-3 μg/m 3 reduction (2-7%) in annual mean PM2.5, ~1μg/m 3 greater reduction that CbR (RE+C)bW avoids the PM 2.5 increase in exporting provinces

10. Air quality and climate benefits 10

11. Air quality and climate benefits 11 Air- pollution- related deaths: National total -2% 20% greater

12. Air quality and climate benefits 12 Carbon emissions: National total -3% 3 times greater

13. Air quality and climate benefits 13 Air- pollution- related deaths Carbon emissions Monetized value Value of Statistical Life (million US$): low - $0.09 (national); high - $0.25 (Beijing) Social Cost Carbon: low - $12 (2.5% discount rate); high - $54 (5% discount rate)

14. Cost-effectiveness: Energy-by-wire relative to CbR 14 Co-control air pollution and carbon emissions: -(RE+C)bW becomes the most cost- effective strategy when high VSL and SCC are used -Drop in wind power costs will improve its cost-effectiveness

15. Conclusions (RE+C)bW compared to coal-based options: 20% greater annual air-pollution-related deaths, and three times larger annual carbon emission reduction  Already most cost- competitive based on high VSL and SCC (RE+C)bW may become more cost-competitive in the future with the increase in VSL with income level and the decrease in renewable technology price Inferior long-term climate impact of coal-based strategy: substantial committed carbon emissions of new investment in coal power plants 15

16. Thanks! Manuscript available upon request 16