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(Coupled) Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C)ARCMIP K. Dethloff, A. Rinke, W. Dorn Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine.

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Presentation on theme: "(Coupled) Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C)ARCMIP K. Dethloff, A. Rinke, W. Dorn Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine."— Presentation transcript:

1 (Coupled) Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C)ARCMIP K. Dethloff, A. Rinke, W. Dorn Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany & (C)ARCMIP group

2 (Coupled) Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project 1)What processes are currently not accounted for (or not well) in Arctic RCMs? What is the appropriate level of complexity of parameterizations?  What are the bias magnitudes ? What are the common model successes? Are there common errors in the Arctic RCMs?  recommendations for parameterization improvements 2) What is the level of uncertainty in current Arctic RCMs?  quantify the scatter among the models (in which variables and/or locations do show RCMs consensus, in which not?)

3  ARCMIP for the SHEBA sub-domain (successfully finished)  ARCMIP for a Pan-Arctic integration domain (planned)  CARCMIP for a Pan-Arctic integration domain (planned) (C)ARCMIP

4  ARCMIP for the SHEBA sub-domain (successfully finished) 8 RCMs; 4 papers have been published Tjernström et al., 2005; Rinke et al., 2006; Inoue et al., 2006; Wyser et al., 2008 (C)ARCMIP

5 ARCMIP#1 group: 1. AWI: Dethloff, Rinke 2. CIRES: Cassano, Shaw, Serreze 3. DMI: Christensen 4. GIT: Curry, Inoue, Liu 5. Met.no: Haugen, Køltzow 6. MPI: Pfeifer, Jacob 7. Rossby Centre: Wyser, Jones, Döscher 8. Uni. Melbourne: Lynch 9. Uni. Quebec: Girard, Laprise, Du 10. Uni. Stockholm:Tjernström, Zagar, Svensson ARCMIP#1 simulations for the Beaufort Sea and SHEBA period

6 SHEBA: Surface Heat and Energy Budget of Arctic Ocean; Sept. 1997-Sept. 1998 Model grid: 61x48 grid points ~3500x2800 km 2 Trajectory of ice camp during SHEBA year ARCMIP#1 simulations for the Beaufort Sea and SHEBA-period

7 Participating models 1.ARCSyM (USA) 2.COAMPS (S,USA) 3.HIRHAM (D,DK) 4.CRCM (C) 5.RCA (S) 6.HIRHAM.no (N) 7.REMO (D) 8.PolarMM5 (USA) Experimental set-up  Same domain  Same horizontal resolution (50km)  Same boundary conditions (lateral: ECMWF, lower: SSM/I, AVHRR)  Different dynamics/physics, vertical resolution Simulated period  one year: SHEBA period September 1997-September 1998 ARCMIP#1 simulations for the Beaufort Sea and SHEBA period

8 Across-model scatter; 2m air temperature wintersummer across-model scatter (isolines): inter-model stdev [˚C] significance of scatter (color): ratio of intermodel stdev to observed variability Rinke et al., 2006 ARCMIP#1 simulations for the Beaufort Sea and SHEBA period

9 Wyser et al., 2008 Surface radiation and clouds ARCMIP#1 simulations for the Beaufort Sea and SHEBA period

10 Wyser et al., 2008 Radiation-cloud relationship SWD [W/m 2 ] Cloud cover CWP [g/m 2 ] SWD [W/m 2 ] ARCMIP#1 simulations for the Beaufort Sea and SHEBA period

11 shf ~ - C H U 10m (T 2m - T srfc ) C H : heat transfer coefficient Scaled sensible heat flux vs. temperature difference Tjernström et al., 2005 ARCMIP#1 simulations for the Beaufort Sea and SHEBA period

12 Summary:  Simulated large-scale flow patterns reproduce observations and are in high agreement among the individual models.  Considerable scatter in temperature, radiation, clouds among different models even under strong constrain.  Largest scatter in 2m temperature over land and within the lowest 1000 m. Ensemble mean outperforms the individual models.  Significant biases for surface fluxes (connected with biases in clouds).  Key processes to improve: clouds, boundary layer-, land surface processes, coupling to the surface ARCMIP#1 simulations for the Beaufort Sea and SHEBA period

13 References: Wyser, K.; Jones, C.; Du, P.; Girard, E.; Willén, U.; Cassano, J.; Christensen, J.H.; Curry J.A.; Dethloff, K.;Haugen J.E.; Jacob, D.; Koltzow, M.; Laprise, R.; Lynch, A.; Pfeifer, S.; Rinke, A.; Serreze, M.; Shaw, M.J.; Tjernström, M.; Zagar, M., 2008: An Evaluation of Arctic Cloud and Radiation processes during the SHEBA year: Simulation results from 8 Arctic Regional Climate Models, Clim. Dyn. 30, 203-223, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0286-1 Inoue, J., Liu, J., Pinto, J.O., Curry, J.A., 2006: Intercomparison of Arctic Regional Climate Models: Modeling Clouds and Radiation for SHEBA in May 1998, J. Clim. 19, 4167-4178 Rinke, A.; Dethloff, K.; Cassano, J.; Christensen, J.H.; Curry J.A.; Du, P.; Girard, E.; Haugen, J.E; Jacob, D.; Jones, C.G.; Koltzow, M.; Laprise, R.; Lynch, A.H.; Pfeifer, S.; Serreze, M.C.; Shaw, M.J.; Tjernström, M.; Wyser, K.; Zagar, M., 2006: Evaluation of an ensemble of Arctic regional climate models: spatiotemporal fields during the SHEBA year, Clim. Dyn. 26, 459-472, doi:10.1007/s00382–005-0095-3 Tjernström, M.; Zagar, M.; Svensson, G.; Cassano, J.; Pfeifer, S.; Rinke, A.; Wyser, K.; Dethloff, K.; Jones, C. ; Semmler, T.; Shaw, M., 2005: Modelling the Arctic boundary layer : An evaluation of six ARCMIP regional-scale models using data from the SHEBA project, Boundary Layer Meteorol. 117, 337-381, doi:10.1007/s10546-004-7954-z ARCMIP#1 simulations for the Beaufort Sea and SHEBA period

14  ARCMIP for the SHEBA sub-domain (successfully finished)  ARCMIP for a Pan-Arctic integration domain (planned) at least 5 RCMs: HIRHAM (Rinke, Dethloff, AWI); COAMPS (Tjernström, MISU); RCA (Wyser, et al., SMHI); WRF (Cassano, Gutowski, US); CRCM (Laprise, et al., UQAM). (C)ARCMIP

15 Simulation period: IPY-period 2007 – 2008 Experimental set-up: - pan-Arctic domain (different in each model) - same horizontal resolution (50 km) - same boundary conditions (initial and boundary: ECMWF; ice thickness from I-O model?) - ensemble runs Observations: TARA, Oden, NP35, etc. ARCMIP#2 simulations for the pan-Arctic and IPY-years

16 Trajectory of NP35 ice camp November 2007-March 2008 Evolution of surface pressure at NP35; February Observation HIRHAM Forecast12 HIRHAM Ensemble mean HIRHAM Ensemble members

17  ARCMIP for the SHEBA sub-domain (successfully finished)  ARCMIP for a Pan-Arctic integration domain (planned)  CARCMIP for a Pan-Arctic integration domain (planned) 4 RCMs: RCAO (Döscher, SMHI); HIRHAM–NAOSIM (Dorn, Dethloff, Rinke, AWI); REMO-MPI/OM (Mikolajewicz, MPI); WRF-NPS (Cassano, Gutowski, Maslowski, US) (C)ARCMIP

18 Simulation period: ca. 1960-2008, and target: IPY-period 2007-2008 Experimental set-up: - pan-Arctic domain (different in each model) - similar horizontal resolution (atmosphere: 50 km, ice-ocean: 25 km) - same atmosphere lateral boundary conditions (ECMWF, NCEP) - ocean lateral boundaries climatological (Levitus, …) Observations: - TARA, Oden, NP35, etc. - Low ice vs. high ice phases etc. CARCMIP simulations for the pan-Arctic

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