1. 1 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology Manuscript “On the Use of Influence Diagrams in a One-on-One Air Combat Game” in Kai Virtanen’s thesis “Optimal Pilot Decisions and Flight Trajectories in Air Combat” Target audience: 1. Air combat analysts, simulator developers 2. Guys working with influence diagrams 3. Dynamic/differential game theorists

2. 2 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology Maneuvering decisions in one-on-one air combat Find the best maneuvering sequence with respect to the goals 1. Avoid being captured by the adversary 2. Capture the adversary by taking into account - Preferences of a pilot - Uncertainties - Behavior of the adversary - Dynamic decision environment t=  t t=0  t=  t 

3. 3 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology Existing modeling approaches Dynamic game theory: –Pursuit-evasion games Fixed roles of the players –Two-target games: - Qualitative and quantitative solutions intractable - Myopic feedback strategies Models emulating the decision making of pilots: –Rule based and heuristic value driven systems –Discrete dynamic games, combinations of AI and games Influence Diagrams (ID): –Single stage (Virtanen et al. 1999), - pilot’s short-term decision making –Multistage (Virtanen et al. 2001), - preference optimal flight paths against given trajectories - a nonlinear programming -based solution approach

4. 4 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology Contributions of the manuscript Two approaches for including the adversary’s behavior in IDs –Stochastically –Deterministically Single stage ID game containing controls for both players, its solution concepts - A good computer guided aircraft - Reasonable feedback strategies Multistage ID game and its solution by nonlinear programming - Planning of fighter maneuvers Simulation procedure - An approximate solution for the one-on-one air combat game - Preference and uncertainty model into two-target games - Utilization of influence diagrams in a dynamic game situation

5. 5 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology Contents of the manuscript Definition of the game, motivation for the use of IDs IDs from the viewpoint of a single player Single stage ID game, its solution concepts Multistage ID game, the corresponding optimization problems The simulation procedure Numerical examples Possible journals: –Priority #1: Systems, Man, and Cybernetics –Priority #1.1: Guidance, Control, and Dynamics