1. FY12 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee January 9, 2012

2. FY12 Caseload Overview Income Eligible: The Income Eligible account full year forecast is projecting a surplus of $1.8M. Caseload continues to decrease with access closed driving the change in the projections. Voucher access remains closed; savings is offset by Contract/Flex Spending. Additional savings may continue if the FY12 late billing trend continues. DTA-Related Caseload: The forecasted surplus has decreased from $3.4M to $3.2M. The change in the projected surplus is driven by a 3% increase in caseload. Two percent of the three percent increase is driven by October actual caseload reported this month increasing by 325. The balance of the year spending projections include a 2 year historical average which anticipates decreases to caseload in December, May, and June. It includes approximately $2M for the DTA policy change for parent work hours for 6-8 year olds. (The anticipated full year cost of this is $4M.) DTA anticipated the policy would be fully implemented by November but impact to spending may not occur until January 2012. FY11 caseload on average was 16,377 children; EEC expended $133.7M in FY11. Supportive: After processing five months of actual expenditures, a surplus of $1.1M is projected. Caseload forecasted trends are based on a 3 year average historical trend. Last month’s caseload projection anticipated a 4.7% decrease. Caseload increased 1.3% over last month, which reflects a swing of 6%. Ongoing discussions with DCF indicate an effort to fill open slots. This increase may be the result of the discussions; the increase decreases the surplus. Late Billing: Part of EEC’s monthly projections is to include late billing. Previous months actuals are updated each month, future forecasted months incorporate a projection for late billing using historical trends. - Fiscal Year 2012 late billing payments to date is approximately $2.7M. - Fiscal Year 2011for the same time period (July 2010 thru Nov. 2010) was $5.67M. - The total FY11 late billing accumulated total was $12.2M. If the late billing trend for FY12 continues, the realized savings will support the projected surplus. 2

3. FY12 Caseload Overview Summary As of December 2011 3

4. FY12 Caseload Actual/Forecast Overview 4 Nov-11 FY2012 Budget FY2012 Forecast Variance Forecast vs. Budget Income Eligible $ 232,897,940 $ 231,067,785 $ 1,830,155 DTA $ 132,458,313 $ 129,226,447 $ 3,231,866 Supportive $ 77,448,576 $ 76,322,038 $ 1,126,538 Total $ 442,804,829 $ 436,616,271 $ 6,188,558 Oct-11 Income Eligible $ 232,897,940 $ 233,859,298 $ (961,358) DTA $ 132,458,313 $ 129,037,442 $ 3,420,871 Supportive $ 77,448,576 $ 73,650,726 $ 3,797,850 Total $ 442,804,829 $ 436,547,466 $ 6,257,363 Sep-11 Income Eligible $ 232,897,940 $ 234,391,943 $ (1,494,003) DTA $ 132,458,313 $ 128,437,115 $ 4,021,198 Supportive $ 77,448,576 $ 76,442,294 $ 1,006,282 Total $ 442,804,829 $ 439,271,352 $ 3,533,477 Aug-11 Income Eligible $ 232,897,940 $ 237,850,204 $ (4,952,264) DTA $ 132,458,313 $ 128,192,814 $ 4,265,499 Supportive $ 77,448,576 $ 74,324,043 $ 3,124,533 Total $ 442,804,829 $ 440,367,061 $ 2,437,768 Jul-11 Income Eligible $ 232,897,940 $ 236,467,188 $ (3,569,248) DTA $ 132,458,313 $ 119,693,634 $ 12,764,679 Supportive $ 77,448,576 $ 75,252,590 $ 2,195,986 Total $ 442,804,829 $ 431,413,412 $ 11,391,417

5. 5 FY 2012 Income Eligible (3000-4060)

6. Data source: Data extract 12/23/2011 This report tracks unbilled services for non-terminated children based on service month (multiple services may be counted per month per child). Terminated cases are reported separately and are not included in this report (effective FY12 reporting). The report has a two month lag. For example unbilled billing report with the service month of September 2011 represents the number of children EEC has not been billed for since July 2011.

7. FY12 Voucher Late Billing There are 7,982 billing records ($2.44M) associated with late billing for the billing months August for July services September for August services October for September services November for October services There are 1,682 providers who have submitted late billing for FY12 related expenditures. Four hundred and one providers have billed late for more than one funding stream. Of the 7,982 billing records, 5,858 are first time billed. The first time billed indicator captures when a child is billed for the first time relative to their current placement. The billing records total $2.45M in expenses. The balance (2,124) of the billing records represents a net dollar impact of approximately $-7.5K for cumulative billing adjustments from July. Of the 2,124 billing records that are not related to first time billing, 889 of them are over one month late, 530 are two months late, 496 are three months late and 209 are four months late. 7 Total Funding SourceBilling Records DollarsProviders ARRA70$29,458 41 DSS23$7,132 7 DTA3,292$1,156,565 956 Income Eligible4,597$1,255,319 1,094 Grand Total 7,982 $2,448,475 2,098

8. FY12 Voucher Late Billing 8 The following chart provides a dollar breakdown by funding stream, service date, and billing month. DTA and Income Eligible each make up 45%-54% of the total dollars each month which, when combined, represents 96% to 99% of the total late billing. Billing Date Service Date8/1/20119/1/201110/1/201111/1/2011Grand Total ARRA7/1/2011 $ 14,023 $ 112 $ 985 $ 15,120 8/1/2011 $ 9,125 $ 3,641 $ 700 $ 13,467 9/1/2011 $ 760 $ 111 $ 871 ARRA Total $ 14,023 $ 9,237 $ 5,387 $ 811 $ 29,458 DSS7/1/2011 $ 3,893 $ (77) $ 3,817 8/1/2011 $ 360 9/1/2011 $ 1,745 10/1/2011 $ 1,211 DSS Total $ 3,893 $ 2,028 $ 1,211 $ 7,132 DTA7/1/2011 $ 187,181 $ 11,648 $ 5,779 $ 2,569 $ 207,178 8/1/2011 $ 395,991 $ 42,546 $ 8,450 $ 446,986 9/1/2011 $ 328,079 $ 25,788 $ 353,867 10/1/2011 $ 148,535 DTA Total $ 187,181 $ 407,639 $ 376,404 $ 185,341 $ 1,156,565 Income Eligible7/1/2011 $ 208,966 $ 35,075 $ 17,590 $ 2,770 $ 264,401 8/1/2011 $ 440,823 $ 53,188 $ 10,946 $ 504,957 9/1/2011 $ 342,389 $ 16,268 $ 358,657 10/1/2011 $ 127,304 Income Eligible Total $ 208,966 $ 475,899 $ 413,167 $ 157,287 $ 1,255,319 Grand Total $ 414,064 $ 892,774 $ 796,986 $ 344,651 $ 2,448,475

9. 9 Data source: Data extract 12/23/2011 This report tracks unbilled services for non-terminated children based on service month (multiple services may be counted per month per child). Terminated cases are reported separately and are not included in this report (effective FY12 reporting). The report has a two month lag. For example unbilled billing report with the service month of September 2011 represents the number of children EEC has not been billed for since July 2011.

10. FY12 Contract Late Billing There are 968 billing records ($265K) associated with late billing for billing months August for July services September for August services October for September services November for October services There are 323 Contract providers who have submitted late billing. Of the 968 billing records, 379 are first time billed. The first time billed indicator captures when a child is being billed for the first time relative to their current placement. These billing records make up the 81%, $215.3K in expenses. The balance of the billing records (589) represent a dollar impact of approximately $49.7K. Of the 589 that are not related to first time billing, 161 of the billing records are one month late, 185 are two months, 161 are three months late and 82 are four months late. Of the first time billed records (379), 105 were billed late by one month, 153 by two months, 72 by three months and 49 by four months. 10 Total Funding SourceBilling Records DollarsProviders HOME34 $ 10,90120 IE717 $ 174,107241 SUP181 $ 46,42784 TEEN36 $ 33,57316 Grand Total 968 $265,008361

11. FY12 Contract Late Billing 11 The following chart provides a dollar breakdown for contract late billing by funding stream, service and billing month. Billing Date Service Date8/1/20119/1/201110/1/201111/1/2011Grand Total HOME7/1/2011 $ 294 $ 1,368 $ 1,662 8/1/2011 $ 830 $ 1,498 $ 2,328 9/1/2011 $ 3,696 $ 1,370 $ 5,066 10/1/2011 $ 1,845 HOME Total $ 294 $ 830 $ 6,561 $ 3,215 $ 10,901 IE7/1/2011 $ 24,488 $ 6,289 $ 2,573 $ 673 $ 34,023 8/1/2011 $ 32,383 $ 8,253 $ 692 $ 41,328 9/1/2011 $ 46,613 $ 10,822 $ 57,435 10/1/2011 $ 41,321 IE Total $ 24,488 $ 38,672 $ 57,439 $ 53,507 $ 174,107 SUP7/1/2011 $ 7,790 $ 2,284 $ 1,753 $ 22 $ 11,849 8/1/2011 $ 14,635 $ 4,451 $ (231) $ 18,855 9/1/2011 $ 19,859 $ (3,202) $ 16,657 10/1/2011 $ (934) SUP Total $ 7,790 $ 16,919 $ 26,063 $ (4,345) $ 46,427 TEEN7/1/2011 $ 1,394 8/1/2011 $ 1,337 $ 60 $ 1,396 9/1/2011 $ 30,867 10/1/2011 $ (85) TEEN Total $ 1,394 $ 1,337 $ 30,927 $ (85) $ 33,573 Grand Total $ 33,967 $ 57,759 $ 120,991 $ 52,292 $ 265,008

12. 12 FY 2012 DTA Related (3000-4050)

13. 13 FY 2012 Supportive (3000-3050)

14. 14 (Amount in Thousands) FY2012 Income Eligible Total Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures Total Appropriation of $232.9M includes $9,019,276 for Grants November 2011 Voucher Expenditures paid is $7,239,406. Gray : Appropriation Budget (Spending Plan Projection) Purple: September Board Report (July Actuals/Aug-Jun Forecast) Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures

15. FY2012 DTA Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures 15 ( Amount in Thousands ) Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures Gray : Appropriation Budget (Spending Plan Projection) Purple: September Board Report (July Actuals/Aug-Jun Forecast)

16. FY2012 Supportive Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures 16 ( Amount in Thousands ) Total Appropriation is $ 77.447 includes $600K for Grants not reported in chart. Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures Gray : Appropriation Budget (Spending Plan Projection) Purple: September Board Report (July Actuals/Aug-Jun Forecast)

17. FY12 Income Eligible Contract Slots Overview As of January 3, 2012 there are 14,469 awarded slots. Of the total awarded slots there is a net 1,532 open contracted slots. One hundred and fifty six slots became vacant in December. The total allowable flex is 860 slots; 596.5 slots are filled. The number of flex slots filled decreased by 6. Currently there are 32 providers whose flex slots are over 5% by 438 slots (awarded 73, used 511). Providers under 5% have 701.5 flex slots not filled (awarded 787, used 86.5). EEC currently has 178 contracted vendors; 150 (84%) of them have open contracted slots. There are 490 contracts by program type, 301 (61%) of the contracts have open contracted slots. Note that in the chart below the standard deviation of 59.2282(Nov 1, 2011) for the Head Start Partner Before & After Program is skewed because one program has 287 awarded slots, but 143 of them are open. 17 Median by Program TypeStandard Deviation by Program Type Jan. 3, 2012 Nov. 29, 2011 Nov. 01, 2011 Jan. 3, 2012 Nov. 29, 2011 Nov. 01, 2011 CENTER BASED INFANT411 2.02841.20671.3006 CENTER BASED INFANT/TODDLER10.501CENTER BASED INFANT/TODDLER3.92443.51784.206 CENTER BASED PRE-SCHOOL22.2534CENTER BASED PRE-SCHOOL7.32127.19779.4735 CENTER BASED SCHOOL-AGE1814CENTER BASED SCHOOL-AGE4.89544.95835.9201 CENTER BASED TODDLER5.750.51.75CENTER BASED TODDLER2.78662.64133.5202 CENTER BASED TODDLER/PRE- SCHOOL4.50.5 CENTER BASED TODDLER/PRE- SCHOOL1.4142 FAMILY CHILD CARE < 286.811FAMILY CHILD CARE < 210.670610.746311.058 FAMILY CHILD CARE > 231-34FAMILY CHILD CARE > 210.398710.78352.5171 HEAD START PARTNER B&A15.503HEAD START PARTNER B&A37.188937.8882*59.2282

18. FY2012 Contract Slots - Regular and Flex 18 Total Awarded Slots is 14469 and Allowable Flex Slots is 860 32 Providers representing 46 contracts are Over 5% Flex (438) **No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.

19. Addendum: Caseload Waitlist Since 11/2010 19 *Waitlist Data as of August 2011 is reported from KinderWait.