1. Statistics Statistique Canada EXPORTS UNDERCOVERAGE & MISALLOCATION

2. Statistics Statistique Canada INTRODUCTION Important Quality Issue Important Quality Issue Universal and Persistent Problem Universal and Persistent Problem Efforts to Measure the Problem Efforts to Measure the Problem Questions Questions

3. Statistics Statistique Canada BACKGROUND Undercoverage Undercoverage Misallocation Misallocation Canada/U.S. Data Exchange Canada/U.S. Data Exchange

4. Statistics Statistique Canada PROBLEMS WITH TRADE STATISTICS* ■ Export Undercoverage ■ Misallocated Trade ■ Timeliness ■ Valuation ■ Detailed commodity classification

5. Statistics Statistique Canada * CANADIAN TRADE STATISTICS Imports and Exports What they are-How to use them By R.H. COATS, F.S.S. (Hon) Dominion Statistician Ottawa, Canada Journal of the Canadian Bankers’ Association July, 1926

6. Statistics Statistique Canada CANADIAN EXPORTS TO MEXICO: CANADIAN STATISTICS VS. MEXICAN STATISTICS

7. Statistics Statistique Canada MISALLOCATION Less Serious as a Problem Less Serious as a Problem Coordinated Conceptual Work Required Coordinated Conceptual Work Required Coordinated Measurement Required Coordinated Measurement Required

8. Statistics Statistique Canada INDICATIONS OF THE PROBLEM Reconciliation Studies Reconciliation Studies Ad Hoc Port Studies Ad Hoc Port Studies SNA Balancing Issues SNA Balancing Issues “Best Estimate” for 2000 “Best Estimate” for 2000

9. Statistics Statistique Canada BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ADJUSTMENT A BoP adjustment is made for trade to Non-U.S. countries for which export customs documents have not been received. A BoP adjustment is made for trade to Non-U.S. countries for which export customs documents have not been received. 1997 $7.4 billion 1998 $9.7 billion 1999 $12.9 billion 2000 $17.5 billion 2001 $16.9 billion 2002 $16.1 billion

10. Statistics Statistique Canada UNDERCOVERAGE MEASUREMENT - 1 Sound Methodology Sound Methodology Measure Level and Change Measure Level and Change Steps to Eliminate the Problem Steps to Eliminate the Problem

11. Statistics Statistique Canada UNDERCOVERAGE MEASUREMENT - 2 Marine Ports – Sample Ship Movements Marine Ports – Sample Ship Movements Airports – Sample Days Airports – Sample Days Highway Border Crossings – Sample Days Highway Border Crossings – Sample Days Reconcile Transportation and Trade Documents Reconcile Transportation and Trade Documents

12. Statistics Statistique Canada UNDERCOVERAGE MEASUREMENT - 3 Marine and Air Estimates for 2002 Marine and Air Estimates for 2002 Marine Estimates for 2003/2004 Marine Estimates for 2003/2004 Air Estimates for 2004 Air Estimates for 2004 Highway Estimates Highway Estimates

13. Statistics Statistique Canada CHANGING CUSTOMS ENVIRONMENT AMPS Penalties Implemented in Oct. 2002 AMPS Penalties Implemented in Oct. 2002 No-Load MOUs Being Negotiated with Carriers No-Load MOUs Being Negotiated with Carriers Earlier Reporting, More Automation, New Security Measures Earlier Reporting, More Automation, New Security Measures CAED Popularity with Exporters CAED Popularity with Exporters

14. Statistics Statistique Canada CAED PARTICIPANTS

15. Statistics Statistique Canada QUESTIONS: Is Canada an anomaly because of trading patterns, NAFTA and the data exchange? Is Canada an anomaly because of trading patterns, NAFTA and the data exchange? Do other OECD countries consider coverage to be a significant quality issue? Do other OECD countries consider coverage to be a significant quality issue? Are any other countries attempting to measure the problem? Are any other countries attempting to measure the problem? Are any other countries making a coverage adjustment to BoP or Customs based estimates? Are any other countries making a coverage adjustment to BoP or Customs based estimates? At what stage should coverage adjustments be made - Customs basis, BoP basis, another trade series? At what stage should coverage adjustments be made - Customs basis, BoP basis, another trade series?