1. The importance and causes of farmland heterogeneity William Sutherland (Zoology, Cambridge) With: Eric Audsley (Cranfield), Alison Bailey (Reading), Ira Cooke (Cambridge),Rob Freckleton (Sheffield), Anil Graves (Cranfield), Elizabeth Mattison (Reading), Joe Morris (Cranfield), Simon Queenborough (Sheffield), Daniel Sandars (Cranfield), Gavin Siriwardena (BTO), Phil Strachan (Primeag), Paul Trawick (Cranfield), Andrew Watkinson (UEA)

2. Conceptual framework Climate, location, soil type etc. Social, economic, legislative and technical changes Profitability of different farmer actions Changes in farm management Bird and mammal populations Weed abundance Physical structure e.g. hedges Social aspects

3. MANAGE LAND AS YOU SEE FIT Length of hedge (m) Woodland area (ha) Skylark plots (no.) FBI bird species observed (no.) Skylarks seen (no.) Tall weeds (no. m -2 ) Other weeds (no. m -2 ) Appearance of land Land-based income £ year -1 from cropping + subsidy + land- based diversification less variable and fixed costs Risk Absolute deviation in land-based income (£) Lifestyle Time off from core farming activity ( no. days year -1 ) Recreational shooting (no. days season -1 ) Management complexity No. different crop types managed No. different agri- environment options managed Autonomy No. different regulatory constraint sets adhered to Measures Objectives Overall objective (decision context) Approach: Collect data on farmers’ land-use objectives using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory to describe preferences and trade-offs between multiple objectives Hierarchy of Objectives FBI = Farmland Bird Index

4. Coeff. of variation 0.10 0.62 0.66 0.75 0.73 0.67 0.88 0.81 0.98 0.93 1.03 1.17 1.57 Mean raw weights n = 47; coeff. of var. = std. dev./mean

5. Temporal changes...

7. Breeding Bird Monitoring JNCC/BTO/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) –880 squares random lowland arable squares in 2007 –Bird abundance (31 species) –Habitat data: %landscape cover (e.g. arable, wood), boundary features, cropping 1 km 100m 25m Other variable types* 5 18 21 * >1 variable set equally important for some species LandscapesCroppingField boundaries Controlling for… NO. OF SPECIES:Most important habitat variable sets1795Geographical area only

10. Effect of set-aside on the cropping landscape

11. How will set-aside loss affect bird populations? Relative change Species

12. Key Players Context settersCrowd Subject Slide 2: Interest influence framework in terms of the question, which stakeholder have influence in and interest over farmland bird populations in the UK. In many respects this boils down to consideration of which stakeholders have interest in and influence over agricultural land in the UK…..