1. Pathways to the Professions Opening the door to careers in Law, Medicine, Veterinary Medicine and Architecture 10 th Birthday Thursday February 3 rd 2011 The University of Edinburgh opening the doors to higher education

2. Social mobility and education – (and access to the professions) Dr Lee Elliot Major The Sutton Trust February 2011

3. International social (income) mobility comparisons US UKITFRAUNOSWGECAFNDN Low Mobility High Mobility

4. Educational mobility low in the UK High- middle gap Middle - low gap

5. ‘books at home’ and test scores

7. Non-privileged – privileged gap for leading universities

8. Backgrounds of professions

9. School attainment matters most Education gap between poor and privileged pupils 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 15/16 year olds at school 5 good GCSEs 5 good GCSEs with English and Maths University by 17/18 Highly selective university by 17/18 Numbers of pupils (1000s) Children on Free School Meals Independent school pupils

10. Why university access is needed ‘Missing 3000’ - even with the A-levels to get into elite universities, 3,000 state school students each year do not enrol at these institutions Just over half of state school teachers (54%) said they would recommend their brightest students to apply to Oxbridge; 45% said they would never or rarely do so. 80% of disadvantaged young people live in the vicinity of a highly selective university, but only 1 in 25 attend.

11. And more than ever before (south of the border at least) Highest fees among publicly funded universities in the world No Aim higher No WP premium?

12. Pathways to the Professions ‘A trail-blazer’ Good outcomes data Inspired other schemes such as Pathways to Law

13. The Future? Sutton Trust expanding access schemes – more summer schools? Pathway to Journalism? Sutton Trust summer school at Edinburgh?

14. Education and Social Mobility in Scotland Cristina Iannelli Moray House School of Education University of Edinburgh

15. Outline  Research context  Social mobility patterns in Scotland  The role of education in the process of social mobility  Stratification within HE  Conclusions and policy implications

16. Research Context  New round of social mobility studies internationally in 1990s (Social Mobility in Europe, ed. by Richard Breen, 2004).  Most recent in Scotland with adequate sample size was 1974.

17. Two projects on social mobility  ESRC research project Education and Social Mobility in Scotland in the 20th Century.  ESRC Research Fellowship The Role of Educational Structure and Content in the Process of Social Mobility.

18. The ESRC research project “Education and Social Mobility in Scotland in the 20 th Century” (together with Professor Lindsay Paterson) Aims: o To provide an up-to-date study of social mobility in Scotland (new data from Scottish Household Survey of 2001). o To investigate the role played by education in the process of intergenerational social mobility.

19. The ESRC Research Fellowship The role of educational structure and content in the process of social mobility Aims:  To study the mechanisms that underlie class mobility between generations, paying particular attention to the role of educational institutions and curricula.  To improve upon the existing social mobility studies (mainly based on cross- sectional data) through the use of longitudinal data.

20. Social mobility patterns in Scotland  In line with studies in other countries: High absolute rates of mobility. Relative mobility rates have not changed (social fluidity). Main influence on social mobility is overall shape of occupational distribution.

21. Absolute mobility rates by cohort

22. Relative mobility Log-linear model testing association between origin and destination

23. Changes in social fluidity  No statistically reliable evidence that the association between origin and destination varied over time.  Changing patterns of social mobility do not reflect changing patterns of social inequalities in the chances of being mobile.

24. Education and social mobility  Educational expansion.  Higher participation rates and more comprehensive system in Scotland than in England.  Have these trends had an equalising effect on social mobility patterns?

25. Educational expansion Source: 2001 Scottish Household Survey

26. Educational attainment by class of origin (people aged 25-64)

27. The intermediary role of education  Education variable does not explain most of the association of origin and destination.  Extent to which education explains OD association has not increased in the youngest cohorts.  OD association is weaker at higher levels of education.

28. Trends in social class inequalities in education  Expansion has benefited all social classes.  Class differences in educational attainment have not significantly changed over time.  Recent analyses of school leavers’ data show that inequalities in HE entry may have started to decline.

29. Trends in social class inequalities in higher education (Iannelli, Gamoran and Paterson, 2009)  Higher education in Scotland diversified as it expanded.  Expansion brought new enrollment opportunities to persons from working class backgrounds.  However, the new opportunities emerged primarily in the lower- status institutions.

30. Expansion of Higher Education in Scotland (SSLS data)

31. Ratio of Professional to Working Class Enrollments: Ancient Universities (SSLS data)

32. Ratio of Professional to Working Class Enrollments: Polytechnics/New Universities (SSLS data)

34. Stratification in HE: three analytic findings  Expansion has favored the disadvantaged.  However, most of the expansion favoring the disadvantaged has occurred in the lower status institutions.  Inequalities across the extremes of the socioeconomic distribution are staggering.

35. Predicted Probabilities of Enrollment Parent SES/YearAncientOldPoly/NewFurtherNone Prof & hi ed 1987/89/91 10.0 1993 5.1 1999/0111.0 Intermed & mid ed 1987/89/91 86.6 199377.4 1999/0172.0 Working & low ed 1987/89/91 95.3 199388.9 1999/0179.3

36. Parent SES/YearAncientOldPoly/NewFurtherNone Prof & hi ed 1987/89/91 36.812.210.0 199336.721.0 5.1 1999/0136.625.011.0 Intermed & mid ed 1987/89/91 0.2 0.486.6 1993 0.2 0.677.4 1999/01 1.5 4.172.0 Working & low ed 1987/89/91 0.03 0.0595.3 1993 0.04 0.288.9 1999/01 0.5 1.079.3 Predicted Probabilities of Enrollment

37. Parent SES/YearAncientOldPoly/NewFurtherNone Prof & hi ed 1987/89/91 36.812.237.5 3.510.0 199336.721.032.1 5.1 1999/0136.625.020.9 6.611.0 Intermed & mid ed 1987/89/91 0.2 0.4 8.0 4.886.6 1993 0.2 0.6 8.912.977.4 1999/01 1.5 4.1 7.714.772.0 Working & low ed 1987/89/91 0.03 0.05 2.5 2.295.3 1993 0.04 0.2 4.6 6.388.9 1999/01 0.5 1.0 5.913.379.3 Predicted Probabilities of Enrollment

38. Parent SES/YearAncientOldPoly/NewFurtherNone Prof & hi ed 1987/89/91 36.812.237.5 3.510.0 199336.721.032.1 5.1 1999/0136.625.020.9 6.611.0 Intermed & mid ed 1987/89/91 0.2 0.4 8.0 4.886.6 1993 0.2 0.6 8.912.977.4 1999/01 1.5 4.1 7.714.772.0 Working & low ed 1987/89/91 0.03 0.05 2.5 2.295.3 1993 0.04 0.2 4.6 6.388.9 1999/01 0.5 1.0 5.913.379.3 Predicted Probabilities of Enrollment Expansion through diversion!

39. Parent SES/YearAncientOldPoly/NewFurtherNone Prof & hi ed 1987/89/91 36.812.237.5 3.510.0 199336.721.032.1 5.1 1999/0136.625.020.9 6.611.0 Intermed & mid ed 1987/89/91 0.2 0.4 8.0 4.886.6 1993 0.2 0.6 8.912.977.4 1999/01 1.5 4.1 7.714.772.0 Working & low ed 1987/89/91 0.03 0.05 2.5 2.295.3 1993 0.04 0.2 4.6 6.388.9 1999/01 0.5 1.0 5.913.379.3 Predicted Probabilities of Enrollment Expansion through diversion!

40. Conclusions  Scotland is similar to many developed countries.  Rise in upward mobility was mainly driven by shape of occupational distribution, not by changes in inequalities.  Education does not account for most of the association between class of origin and class of destination.  Educational reforms have facilitated expansion but have not brought about a decline in inequalities.

41. Policy implications In relation to social mobility: Promoting greater equality of opportunities in the future is likely to mean increasing downward mobility for the offspring of more privileged social strata (Goldthorpe and Jackson, 2007).

42. Policy implications In relation to education:  Education, on its own, cannot eradicate social inequalities.  Continuing to raise the overall level of educational attainment may lead to a significant reduction of inequalities. However, unwanted consequences may be: At start inequalities may widen; Differentiation within the higher education system would continue reproducing social inequalities.

43. Pathways to the Professions Opening the door to careers in Law, Medicine, Veterinary Medicine and Architecture 10 th Birthday Thursday February 3 rd 2011 The University of Edinburgh opening the doors to higher education