1. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael Moran, Véronique Bouchet, Wanmin Gong, Paul Makar, Sophie Cousineau, Louis-Philippe Crevier, Ashu Dastoor, Sunling Gong, Sylvain Ménard, and Balbir Pabla Meteorological Service of Canada Toronto, Ontario and Montreal, Quebec

2. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Talk Outline What Is An AURAMS? Case Studies & AQ Data Sources Some Operational Evaluation Results Some Diagnostic Evaluation Results Some Real-Time Evaluation Results Summary and Next Steps

3. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada AURAMS Is “A Unified Regional Air-quality Modelling System” Episodic, regional, size-resolved, chemically- characterized PM modelling system “Unified’ in sense that it considers multiple air pollutants and can be applied to multiple AQ issues (e.g., PM, acid deposition, tropospheric O 3 ) Consists of 3 main components:  regional emissions processing system;  nonhydrostatic global meteorological model;  “off-line” sectional PM regional air-quality model Current PM resolution: 12 size bins (0.01-40.96  m) and 9 chemical components (SO 4 =, NO 3 -, NH 4 +, BC, pOC, sOC, CM, SS, H 2 O)

4. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Canadian Emissions Processing System (CEPS) point mobile area biogenics Canadian Emissions Processing System (CEPS) point mobile area biogenics GEM (prognostic meteorological model) GEM (prognostic meteorological model) Population data Econometric data Land-use data Geophysical data National Emission Inventories (Cdn, U.S.) Meteorological observations (OA) PM2.5, PM10 Concentration Fields Regional PM Model (CHRONOS+ADOM+CAM+new) Advection/diffusion (of 29 gaseous and 9x12 aerosol tracers), emission (including gaseous precursors and size-segregated and chemically-resolved PM), dry deposition of gaseous tracer, coupled gaseous, aqueous-phase, aerosol/heterogeneous chemistry, secondary organic aerosol formation, aerosol microphysics (nucleation, condensation/evaporation, coagulation, CCN activation), size-dependent scavenging/wet deposition, size-dependent dry deposition of aerosols, gravitational settling/sedimentation. Regional PM Model (CHRONOS+ADOM+CAM+new) Advection/diffusion (of 29 gaseous and 9x12 aerosol tracers), emission (including gaseous precursors and size-segregated and chemically-resolved PM), dry deposition of gaseous tracer, coupled gaseous, aqueous-phase, aerosol/heterogeneous chemistry, secondary organic aerosol formation, aerosol microphysics (nucleation, condensation/evaporation, coagulation, CCN activation), size-dependent scavenging/wet deposition, size-dependent dry deposition of aerosols, gravitational settling/sedimentation.

5. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Model Characteristics

6. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada AURAMS Selected Evaluation Periods

7. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada AURAMS Evaluation Period Data Sets

8. Western & Eastern AURAMS Domains Western Domain 148 x 124 x 29 Δx=21 km Eastern Domain 85 x 105 x 29 Δx=42 km PM 2.5 SO 4 O3O3

9. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Ground-Level O 3, 1700 EDT, July 14 th 1995 Coloured Station Circles Superimposed On Contoured Gridded Model Field, Same Colour Scheme

10. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Hourly O 3, All Stations, July 12-15, 1995 Max. Observed: ~185 ppb Max. Predicted: ~150 ppb

11. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada 24-Hour PM 2.5 Species: July 8-16, 1995 PM 2.5 SO 4 NH 4 NO 3 NAPS Network,  g m -3 @STP 1-in-6

12. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada PM 2.5 & O 3 Time Series, Feb. 7–14, 1998 PM 2.5 O3O3

13. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Hourly O 3 Hourly PM 2.5 Evaluation of Hourly O 3 and PM 2.5 Predictions, Feb. 7-14, 1998

14. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada 24-Hour PM 2.5 Species: Feb. 7-14, 1998 PM 2.5 NH 4 SO 4 NO 3 NAPS Network,  g m -3 @STP 1-in-6

15. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Satellite vs. GEM-Modelled Cloud Field Cloud Fraction, 3085 m AGL

16. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Six-Day Precip-Weighted SO 4 = Conc. In Precip (July 31-Aug. 5, 1988) ModelledObserved

17. AURAMS Diagnostic Evaluation – Pacific2001

18. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Note: Red stations are less than 250 km from Pacific coast. Blue stations > 250 km from Pacific coast. Daily Speciated PM Comparison, Aug. 25-31, 2001 (IMPROVE, CAPMoN, NAPS) PM 2.5 SO 4 PM tot SO 4 PM 2.5 NO 3 PM tot NO 3 PM tot NH 4 PM 2.5 EC

19. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Particle Size and Speciation AMS data courtesy of Hacene Boudries, Aerodyne Similar range and size distribution Short duration peaks in model lower than measurements p-SO 4 Pacific2001 p-SO 4 AMS Time-Size Cross Section

20. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Langley, Aug. 29, 2001 Lidar data courtesy Kevin Strawbridge, MSC AURAMS captures the nighttime layer aloft detected by the lidar Pacific2001 Lidar Time-Height Cross Section

21. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Same-Day Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasts (1) Obs O - M Model Based on AIRNOW data feed Summer 2004 for O 3 and PM 2.5

22. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Same-Day Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasts (2)

23. A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Summary and Next Steps AURAMS is an episodic, regional, size-resolved, chemically-characterized PM modelling system that includes a sectional PM CTM Operational, diagnostic, and real-time performance evaluations have all provided useful insights Older cases provide point of comparison with other models (e.g., ADOM, RADM) while newer cases provide richer PM and PM precursor data sets for multi-pollutant evaluations Additional cases (e.g., Eastern Supersite 2001/02 period, ICARTT/NEAQS-2K4 period), longer simulations, more fields (e.g., precip chemistry), more model intercomparisons are being pursued