1. 1 Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee Integrated Options for Human Exploration Discussion August 12, 2009

2. 2 Topics for Discussion 1.Review and summarize potential decisions on human exploration 2.Review options that have been analyzed 3.Groundwork for Cost/Schedule 4.Evaluation Analysis to follow Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

3. 3 Decisions (1 of 3) 1.What is the phase out plan of the Shuttle? –Fly out remainder of flights safely (Currently part of policy, but FY 11 funding not part of President’s budget) –Extend Shuttle at 1-2 flights per year through 2015 (Only in conjunction with extended ISS, SDV derived heavy lifter and commercial crew) 2.What is the future of the ISS? –End US participation in ISS at the end of 2015 –Continue US participation, through at least 2020 (Possible to use at minimal capability, or at enhanced level of US utilization) Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

4. 4 Shuttle to Manifest Flyout (est. 2011) Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee Advantages: –Prudent fly-out schedule –Allows realistic budget planning Disadvantages: –Additional cost to current plan (but is likely closer to reality) Notes: –No operational impact to Constellation program –Little change in workforce reduction Rationale: – Little margin remains in the shuttle schedule; experience indicates that it will take longer than currently projected to safely fly out the manifest. This scenario is more realistic, and would avoid undue pressure to complete flights within a particular budget year.

5. 5 Shuttle to 2015 Advantages: –Reduces the gap in US human launch capability –Supports robust US and International utilization of the ISS –Smooth workforce transition –Takes maximum advantage of existing infrastructure and production capabilities (cost savings, which should be investigated) Disadvantages: –Cost not currently carried in the budget Mitigated when coupled with Shuttle-Derived HLV –Extends life of shuttle; independent risk assessment recommended Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee Extend shuttle at 1-2 flights/year through 2015 (partially close gap) Analyzed in conjunction with Shuttle-derived HLV Rationale: The most realistic way to significantly reduce the gap (and to robustly use ISS’ full capability)

6. 6 ISS to 2015 Resupply and logistics with IP and COTS Would require International Partner decision to transfer to other form of organization with lower US burden after 2015, or retire Continue with Program of Record plan (FY10 budget) to de-orbit ISS in 2016. Continue present utilization focus within existing utilization budget. Resupply and logistics by IP and COTS vehicles Crew transport via Soyuz Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee Continue with historical plan of ending primary US support for ISS in 2015 Focus work there on science and preparation for exploration to the extent possible

7. 7 ISS to 2020 Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee Opportunity to expand international partnership Development of technology and understanding of human research issues in preparation for exploration Opportunity for full realization of national lab concept Inclusion of new partners to be aligned with US national interests Enhance US participation through 2020 Demonstrate commitment to full utilization of ISS

8. 8 Decisions (2 of 3) 3.Should the government developed launch system be based on NASA/Shuttle heritage or an EELV based systems? –Ares I plus Ares V (no refueling) –Ares V lite dual launch, enhanced with (potentially commercial) refueling) –Directly Shuttle derived vehicle, enhanced with (potentially commercial) refueling) –EELV H plus SH, enhanced with (potentially commercial) refueling 4.How should crew be carried to LEO (ISS in particular)? –US government provided systems –Commercial/international (implies eventual operational backup by US government system) Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

9. 9 Ares I plus Ares V Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee Ares I Characteristics: 5 Segment RSRB first stage J-2X LOX/LH2 upper stage Performance: LEO:26 mT Crew Ares V Characteristics: (2) 5.5 Segment RSRB’s (6) RS-68B LOX/LH2 first stage J-2X LOX/LH2 upper stage Performance: LEO:159 mT Cargo NASA heritage components Ares 1 for US crew transport to ISS and Earth Orbit Rendezvous with Ares 5 for crewed flights Ares V alone for cargo +

10. 10 Ares V Lite Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee Ares V lite x 2 Characteristics: (2) 5 Segment RSRB’s (6) RS-68A LOX/LH2 first stage J-2X LOX/LH2 upper stage Performance: LEO:143 mT Ares V Lite is a human rated simplified version of baseline Ares V Uses as cargo vehicle, crew delivery beyond LEO, the human rated as US backup for commercial launch When use in lunar missions, two Ares V are used in “dual mode” Rendezvous can occur either in Earth Orbit or Lunar Orbit

11. 11 Shuttle Derived Vehicle Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee Sidemount Characteristics: (2) 4 Segment RSRB’s (3) RS-25E LOX/LH2 first stage J-2X LOX/LH2 upper stage Performance: LEO:92 - 105 mT Commercial Crew Transport Characteristics: LOX/RP-1 first stage LOX/RP-1 upper stage Performance: LEO:8 - 10 mT Commercial transport to ISS and to LEO for EOR with SDV Multiple Shuttle derived vehicles possible For Moon, crewed mission is crew taxi + 3 launches, cargo is one launch Jupiter 241 Characteristics: (2) 4 Segment RSRB’s (4) RS-25E LOX/LH2 first stage J-2X LOX/LH2 upper stage Performance: LEO:106 mT + or

12. 12 ELV Super Heavy Launch Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee ELV Super Heavy Characteristics: LOX/RP-1 first stage LOX/LH2 upper stage Performance: LEO:75 mT Commercial crew transport to ISS and earth orbit rendezvous with EELV Super Heavy Several options for SH with LOX/RP-1 based first stage For Moon, crewed mission is crew taxi + 3 launches, cargo is one (or potentially two) launches Commercial Crew Transport Characteristics: LOX/RP-1 first stage LOX/RP-1 upper stage Performance: LEO:8 - 10 mT +

13. 13 Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee Tanker Description: Single tanker launched to orbit, or Depot deployed in orbit and refueled Autonomous on-orbit rendezvous and fuel transfer May be used to top off or completely fill upper stages before leaving Earth Orbit Advantages: Increased deliver mass to target for give size booster and upper stage May result in smaller booster requirements due dry payloads Enable commercial market Disadvantages: Additional launches required compared to single large booster Advanced cryogenic fluid management technology needed Fluid coupling and transfer technology needed Propellant Storage & Transfer Depot

14. 14 Decisions (3 of 3) 5. What is the first destination for exploration beyond LEO? –Moon with surface exploration focused on base –Moon with surface exploration focused on global exploration –Deep space with no surface exploration immediately –Mars first, with surface exploration 128 total possible options for consideration Plus: Is the budget constrained to the budget guidance? Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

15. 15 Destination Description: Lunar Base (~Program of Record) Key Capabilities –Sortie, Extended Stay, and Outpost capability –Pervasive Mobility; ability to explore an extended range (25–100 km) around landing sites –Solar power with sufficient energy storage to keep assets alive between human visits –Habitation –Emphasis on understanding the lunar environment and its applicability to human exploration objectives Developing & testing science protocols Testing planetary protection approaches Improving reliability and functionality of EVA & life support systems Testing systematic approaches for resolving complex problems such as dust mitigation and radiation protection Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

16. 16 Lunar Base Representative Architecture Separate crew and cargo missions are used to build the Lunar Base over time Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

17. 17 Lunar Crew Stay Cap. Year 7 Days 28 Days Human Lunar Return Initial Power, Habitation, Mobility Advanced ECLSS, Full Habitation, Continuous Presence, 1 ton O2 per year produced 1234567910118 14 Days 14-day roves Full Communications 45 Days 180 Days 180 Days 180 Days 28 Days Lunar Base Milestones, Destinations & Capabilities Max Power Generation, Nighttime Ops Non-Polar Sortie (PoR) 180 Days Mars Mission Analogs, Expanded Resource Extraction

18. 18 Destination Description: Lunar Global Uses self-contained or potentially mobile outposts to provide surface habitation (14 to180 day stay capability) Lays the technology groundwork for Mars by developing subsystems and technologies that are forward extensible to Mars, but does not explicitly continue to Mars exploration Independent outpost configurations are flexible and adaptable to landing site Surface elements can be relocated from one site to another between crewed missions Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

19. 19 Lunar Global Representative Architecture 56 Days Max Duration 210 Cumulative Surface Days 1 Cargo Flights 5 Crewed Flights Unpres Mobility 4 Sortie Missions 4 Locations 7 Surface Days Each Sortie Phase Extended Duration - Site A Extended Duration - Site B Extended Duration - Site C Sites 1-4 Site 5 Site 6 Site 7 84 Days Max Duration 280 Cumulative Surface Days 2 Cargo Flights 6 Crewed Flights Pres Mobility 182 Days Max Duration 308 Cumulative Surface Days 4 Cargo Flights 6 Crewed Flights Pres Mobility + Relocatable Hab

20. 20 Lunar Global Milestones, Destinations & Capabilities 1234567910118 Sortie Flights Extended Duration Location A Extended Duration Location B Extended Duration Location C Test Flights 56 Day Stays 84 Day Stays / Extended Mobility 182 Day Stays Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Site 4 Site 5 Site 6 Site 7 Habitat HLR 1st Cargo Flight Year Small Pressurized Rover (SPR) Habitat #1 Small Pressurized Rover (SPR) Habitat #2 Small Pressurized Rover (SPR)

21. 21 Destination Description: Mars First Primary objective is Mars exploration All systems are designed for Mars Development and test plan is created to reduce risk and gain confidence and experience with the Mars exploration system The Moon is not a conceptual test bed for Mars, but an actual test bed for Mars Systems would be used for surface exploration on the Moon as well Commercial participation would be enhancing, probably be limited to activities such as launch to LEO The human exploration of the Moon and Mars would be complementary to the ongoing robotic exploration, and synergies would be exploited, but not fundamentally drive the program Assume technology investments can be made to increase TRL 2 and above technologies to appropriate TRL Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

22. 22 Crewed MTV Crew: Jettison drop tank after TMI; ~180 days out to Mars MAV ascent to orbit Crew: ~180 days back to Earth Cargo: ~350 days to Mars 6 Ares-V Cargo Launches Ares-I Crew Launch ~26 months ~30 months 1 2 4 6 7 8 9 11 13 Crew: Use Orion/SM to transfer to Hab Lander; then EDL on Mars Orion direct Earth return 14 3 Habitat Lander AC into Mars Orbit 5 ISRU / propellant production for MAV 10 ~540 days on Mars Cargo MTVs AC / EDL of MDAV / Cargo Lander Crew: Jettison DM & contingency consumables prior to TEI 12 3 Ares-V Cargo Launches Source: MSFC Mars First Representative Architecture

23. 23 Mars First Representative Architecture Lunar Dress Rehearsal Crew: 3 Days to TLI Surface Ops Ascent to Orbit Crew: 3 Days to Earth Cargo: 3 Days To Surface Cargo to Surface & Orbit Cargo Launches Crew Launch ~10 months approximately 2 years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 10 9 Crew: Less than 2 years at Moon Earth Return Cargo Launches 1.Assy of DAV and Hab/Lander to two 2 stg TMI Stages 2.2 TMI’s; coast to Moon 3.DAV lands, TLI/descent-stage puts Hab/lander into orbit 4.Assy of transit Hab and 3 TMI modules 5.Crew in CM docks with stack 6.2 modules perform first TMI burn, 1 performs second; coast to moon 7.TransitHab docks with Hab/Lander; crew transfers and descends 8.Surface ops; crew ascends then docks with transitHab 9.TEI; coast to earth 10.CM separation; entry; landing 1.Assy of DAV and Hab/Lander to two 2 stg TMI Stages 2.2 TMI’s; coast to Moon 3.DAV lands, TLI/descent-stage puts Hab/lander into orbit 4.Assy of transit Hab and 3 TMI modules 5.Crew in CM docks with stack 6.2 modules perform first TMI burn, 1 performs second; coast to moon 7.TransitHab docks with Hab/Lander; crew transfers and descends 8.Surface ops; crew ascends then docks with transitHab 9.TEI; coast to earth 10.CM separation; entry; landing 6 Launches 30 days apart 6 Launches 30 days apart 4 Launches apart 30 days apart 8

24. 24 Mars First Milestones, Destinations & Capabilities 123456789101112131415161718192021 Year First Cargo To Mars Mars Transit Habitat Demonstration 180Days Ascent Stage Demonstration Subscale EDL ISRU MSR Robotic Landings First Humans On Mars In Space Transportation Cargo Landers Crew Vehicle ISS NEO Mars Second Mission To Mars Third Mission To Mars Crew and Cargo to the Moon Crew and Cargo Delivered to Lunar Surface – 2 year Operations Repeat

25. 25 Destination Description: Flexible Path A Flexible Path of Human and Robotic Exploration: Crewed exploration missions to many places in the inner solar system Orbit planets with deep gravity wells, but do not land on the surface Rendezvous with small planetary bodies such as NEOs and Mars moon Phobos Tele-robotically explore and sample planetary surfaces L4L4 L2L2 L1L1 L3L3 L5L5 Phobos & Deimos Earth Moon Venus Mars NEOs Sun - Earth L 1 Sun - Earth L 2 Value of flexible destinations: Scientific knowledge and science operations support Demonstrate capability of exploring in free space under conditions that we will meet on the way to Mars Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

26. 26 Flexible Path Representative Architecture Near Earth 21+ day duration Sun-Earth Vicinity 30-90 day duration Limited Inner Solar System ~200 day duration Inner Solar System >365 day duration Minimum Capability 7-14 day duration Zero boil off & Refueling L1L1 L2L2 Sun – Earth L 2 Sun – Earth L 1 NEOs Mars Phobos Lunar Flyby Earth’s Lagrange Points Mars Flyby NEOs Flexible Path is a sequence of missions with increasing capability into the inner solar system

27. 27 Flexible Path Off Ramp to Lunar: Milestones, Destinations & Capabilities 1234567910118 Lunar Sortie Flights Lunar Extended Duration Location A Lunar Surface Test Flights Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Site 4 Site 5 Lander with Habitat Human Lunar Return 1st Habitat Flight Year 7 Days 32 Days Unpiloted Lunar Test Lunar Flyby NEO (2007 UN12) 10 Days Earth Moon L1 Sun Earth L2 Sun Earth L1 90 Days 190 Days First Humans to NEOs Humans in Interplanetary Space 21 Days Humans in Cislunar Space Sun Earth Vicinity Near Earth Precursor Landers / Rovers Human to Mars Vicinity Mars Flyby 440 Days Extended Robotic Presence

28. 28 Main option Budget 2010- 2020 Shuttle LifeISS Life Government Launch Crew to LEO Beyond LEO Destination 1 -Program of Record (as it would be consistently costed and scheduled) not constrained to FY10 Budget 20112015Ares I, Ares VAres I + Orion Lunar sortie/outpost 2 - Baseline Derived fom Program of Record constrained to FY10 Budget 20112015Ares I, Ares VAres I + Orion Lunar sortie/outpost 3A - ISS focused (Ares I) constrained to FY10 Budget 20112020Ares I, Ares VAres I + Orion Lunar sortie/outpost 3B - ISS focused (commercial crew) constrained to FY10 Budget 20112020Ares V LiteCommercial Lunar sortie/outpost 5 - Use Shuttle Systems not constrained to FY10 Budget 20152020 Directly Shuttle Derived Commercial Lunar sortie/outpost Integrated Options (1 of 3)

29. 29 Main option Budget 2010- 2020 Shuttle LifeISS Life Government Launch Crew to LEO Beyond LEO Destination 4 - Dash out of LEO constrained to FY10 Budget 20112015Ares V LiteCommercial Lunar orbit, L's, NEO, Mars flyby, Moon 6 - Deep Space not constrained to FY10 Budget 20112020 Ares V Lite + refueling Commercial Lunar orbit, L's, NEO, Mars flyby, Moon 7 - Deep Space (EELV) not constrained to FY10 Budget 20112020 Commercial HC 75mt + reflueling Commercial Lunar orbit, L's, NEO, Mars flyby, Moon 7b - Deep Space (Shuttle) not constrained to FY10 Budget 20112020 Directly Shuttle Derived Commercial Lunar orbit, L's, NEO, Mars flyby, Moon Integrated Options (2 of 3)

30. 30 Budget 2010- 2020 Shuttle LifeISS Life Government Launch Crew to LEO Beyond LEO Destination 8 - Lunar Global not constrained to FY10 Budget 20112020Ares V LiteCommercial Lunar sortie/extended stay 9 - Lunar Global (EELV) not constrained to FY10 Budget 20112020 Commercial HC 75mt + refueling Commercial Lunar sortie/extended stay 10 - Mars First not constrained to FY10 Budget 20112020 Ares V +refueling Commercial Mars with lunar test flight Integrated Options (3 of 3)

31. 31 Next discussion topic: Cost and schedule analysis – Dr. Ride