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2 nd OECD Environmental Outlook Presentation to UNECE WGEMA 13 June 2006 Roberto Martín-Hurtado
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First OECD Environmental Outlook (2001) Focussed on problem identification, some policy analysis. Identified red, yellow and green light environmental pressures and issues. Basis for developing the OECD Environmental Strategy for the First Decade of the 21st Century, adopted by Environment Ministers in 2001.
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EPOC DISCUSSED & APPROVED: Draft annotated outline Modelling framework Timeline for producing the report Consultations with OECD Groups and external partners FOCUS OF THE 2 nd OUTLOOK: Economic & environmental baseline extended to 2030 Greater focus on analysis of policy simulations OECD and non-OECD countries covered
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ANNOTATED OUTLINE Executive Summary & Introduction Part 1 = baseline to 2030 Drivers of change: economy, demography, globalisation, consumption & production, technological innovation, material flows. Environmental developments: climate change, air quality, biodiversity, land use change, fresh water. Cross-cutting issues: health & environment, urban issues. Regional implications: regional descriptions, key variants.
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ANNOTATED OUTLINE (contd.) Part 2 = policy simulations & analysis Sectoral: agriculture, transport, energy, selected industries. Main sectoral trends; analysis of specific policy options & simulations. Policy framework conditions: institutional capacity, partnerships, implementation, costs of inaction. Coherent policy package: pulling all the policies together, recommendations. Policy Conclusions Annexes
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CO-OPERATION AND CO-ORDINATION Internal: EPOC main oversight, WPGSP on modelling. Extensive consultation with OECD Committees & Groups; working closely with colleagues in ECO, AGR, IEA, etc. External: co-ordinating with other groups undertaking long-term environmental analysis (e.g. EEA, UNEP, World Bank, IPCC).
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TIMETABLE 2006 - Draft chapters - Additional environmental model components - Finalise the (economic & environmental) baseline - Plan & run policy simulations - Review chapters & baseline with OECD Groups 2007 - Run policy “package” simulations - Finalise report with EPOC - Publish end 2007 2008 - Input to the 2008 EPOC Ministerial Meeting
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