1. Metropolitan Groundwater Model for Water-Supply Availability Analysis Technical Advisory Group Meeting June 19, 2008

2. Quick Review

3. Model Domain Entire 7 county metro Extend to edge of Mt. Simon – Hinckley Aquifer to NW 4913 sq miles Model cell size: 500m 417,793 active cells Anoka Hennepin Dakota Scott Carver Washington Ramsey

4. Model Layers Mt Simon-Hinckley Franconia Eau Clair Ironton-Galesville St. Lawrence Jordan Prairie du Chien St. Peter Glacial Drift West East Carver Hennepin Dakota Washington All major aquifers and aquitards included Total of 9 Layers

5. Rivers and Streams All rivers and streams represented with lake package

6. River Segments Each river broken into segments (reaches) Stage based on topography or gage data

7. Lakes Stage from DNR or DEM Deeper lakes allowed to be in deeper layer Represented with River Package

8. Targets 14,542 Head targets –SWL from CWI 33 Baseflow targets 55 Transmissivity targets –Pumping Tests 378 Anisotropy targets –Penalty for K z > K x within a zone

9. Head Targets 14,542 head targets Static water levels from county well index Cross- validated

10. Baseflow 33 baseflow reaches

11. Transmissivity Targets

12. Surface Water Balance (SWB) Model for Recharge Topography (30-m Digital Elevation) Daily Precipitation Temp, Julian Day Wind Soil Type (Hydrologic Classification) Land Use (including imperviousness) RECHARGE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SURFACE RUNOFF (Adapted from Dripps and Bradbury, 2007)

13. SWB Recharge Output Mean recharge 1975-2003 30m grid

14. Recharge Model Grid 500 m grid

15. Calibration Parameters 756 hydraulic conductivity zones –378 K x =K y –378 K z 8 lake conductance zones 33 river conductance reaches Recharge remained fixed

16. Quaternary Zones Zones roughly defined based on sand content 65 zones

17. Quaternary Zones Zones roughly defined based on sand content 65 zones

18. Jordan Zones 48 zones Zones defined based on first bedrock unit and subdivided into additional zones

19. Calibration Results for Head Targets

20. Calibration Stats Mean Head Residual = -1.65 m Residual Standard Deviation = 5.18 m Minimum Head Residual = -31.21 m Maximum Head Residual = 33.08 m Total range of observed values = 125.27 m Percent of head residuals within 5% of range = 93.2%

21. Baseflow Residuals

22. Horizontal Hydraulic Conductivity Unit Geometric Mean Kx (m/day) Min Kx (m/day) Max Kx (m/day) Quaternary 11.80.1143.0 St. Peter 1.30.115.0 Prairie Du Chien 8.81.050.0 Jordan 11.03.050.0 St. Lawrence 0.24.2 x 10 -2 2.0 Franconia 5.70.130.0 Ironton- Galesville 6.70.130.0 Eau Claire 1.3 x 10 -2 3.0 x 10 -4 0.1 Mt. Simon - Hinckley 1.60.110.0

23. Vertical Hydraulic Conductivity Unit Geometric Mean Kz (m/day) Min Kz (m/day) Max Kz (m/day) Quaternary 0.70.0120 St. Peter 0.15.0 x 10 -4 9.8 Prairie Du Chien 0.31.0 x 10 -2 15 Jordan 0.53.0 x 10 -2 1.9 St. Lawrence 3.1 x 10 -3 3.0 x 10 -5 0.1 Franconia 0.13.0 x 10 -4 3.0 Ironton- Galesville 0.23.0 x 10 -4 3.0 Eau Claire 1.1 x 10 -5 3.0 x 10 -7 1.0 x10 -3 Mt. Simon - Hinckley 7.3 x 10 -2 9.9 x 10 -3 0.3

24. Using the model to address future water supply Example for the City of Ramsey

26. (Runkel, 2006)

27. Projected Municipal Demands (Ramsey) Year Projected Municipal Avg. Day (gal/day) Projected Municipal Maximum Day (gal/day) 20103,300,45415,600,514 20205,206,37022,387,300 20304,932,35117,221,000 20406,242,84217,037,200 20507,319,03220,443,162

28. Regional Model Run regional model with 2050 average day pumping Extract TMR for more detailed analysis Used constant head boundaries at edge of TMR

29. Municipal Supply Wells

30. Well spacing about 1 mile

31. Grid Refinement Refine grid in the Ramsey area

32. Ramsey Well 7 Pumping Test Observation Well

33. Ramsey Well 7 Pumping Test Drawdown (m) Time (days) Pumping Rate: 1000 gpm (constant)

34. 2030 Drawdown in Ironton - Galesville (Average Day) Contour Interval: 1 ft

35. 2030 Drawdown in Ironton - Galesville (2 Week Peak) Contour Interval: 2 ft

36. 2030 Drawdown in Layer 1 (Average Day) Contour Interval: 1 ft

37. 2030 Drawdown in Layer 1 (2 Week Peak) Contour Interval: 1 ft

38. 2050 Drawdown in Ironton - Galesville (Average Day) Contour Interval: 1 ft

39. 2050 Drawdown in Ironton – Galesville (2 Week Peak) Contour Interval: 2 ft

40. 2050 Drawdown in Layer 1 (Average Day) Contour Interval: 1 ft

41. 2050 Drawdown in Layer 1 (2 Week Peak) Contour Interval: 1 ft

42. Head Above Franconia (2050, 2 Week Peak)

43. Water Table Distance From Ground Surface

44. Wetlands in Ramsey

45. Additional Info

46. Layer 1 Residuals (Quaternary)

47. Layer 2 (St. Peter)

48. Layer 3 (Prairie Du Chien)

49. Layer 4 (Jordan)

50. Layer 5 (St. Lawrence)

51. Layer 6 (Franconia)

52. Layer 7 (Ironton-Galesville)

53. Layer 8 (Eau Claire)

54. Layer 9 (Mt Simon – Hinckley)

55. Layer 1

56. Layer 2

57. Layer 3

58. Layer 4

59. Layer 5

60. Layer 6

61. Layer 7

62. Layer 8

63. Layer 9

64. OSTP

65. OPDC

66. CJDN

67. CSTL

68. CFRN

69. CIGL

70. CECR

71. CMSH