1. The Future of Climate Change Modeling to Predict Future Climates

2. Computer Models http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/climate-model-2.jpg Involve mathematical equations to describe interactions in the physics, biology and chemistry of the Earth’s climate system

3. Computer Models 2 http://hinessight.blogs.com/hinessight/021607_2143_Climatemode3_4.jpg These equations are so complicated that computers must be used to solve them Computers create descriptions of possible future climate patterns from the results

4. Computer Models 3 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4a/Global_Atmospheric_Model.jpg Once a model is developed it must be tested Scientists run the model using past data If it accurately reproduces past data it will likely give good predictions of the future

5. Computer Models 4 Computer models used presently indicate that the climate will continue to change Models are reliable, but may not account for all of the complexities of Earth’s climate system

6. Aerosol Pollution Scientists think that increases in aerosol pollution have masked the severity of global warming Aerosols are tiny particles generated by natural and anthropogenic sources It is difficult to predict the amount of global aerosol pollution because it partly depends on unpredictable events (ex. volcanic eruptions, forest fires)

7. Canada’s Future Climate Modeled http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/north- america/canada/_derived/index.htm_txt_canada-map.gif Computer climate models predict some initial positive effects for Canada 1. Crops will grow farther north 2. Growing season extended 3. More ‘warm weather crops’ will grow (ex. more fruit will grow in the Great Lakes area)

8. Canada’s Future Climate Modeled 2 http://www.craigmarlatt.com/canada/images/images&downloads/map_climate.jpg Computer models also predict that higher temperatures will go hand in hand with more precipitation, and more frequent and severe weather events (ex. flash floods, harsh winters & windstorms)

9. Confidence Ratings of Climate Change Models http://topnews.ae/images/ipcc.gif IPCC scientists have found ways to estimate their confidence in their computer models, evaluations and predictions

10. Confidence Level Graph

11. Confidence Ratings of Climate Change Models 2 http://openparachute.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/ipcc- cartoon.jpg The IPCC scientists give higher confidence levels to their predictions and conclusions if they have: 1. More data 2. More accurate measurements 3. Greater understanding of the factors involved in a particular climatic event

12. The Future of Climate Change Political Action on Climate Change

13. IPCC http://assets.wwfindia.org/img/ipcc_report_89379_13181.jpg Climate research depends on international co- operation Scientists in different countries share climate data and their tools for collecting it The IPCC publishes its findings in reports available to everyone

14. Time to Act http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/TECH/science/06/15/ipcc.pachauri.climate.change/art.climate.change.afp.gi.jpg Our understanding of global energy systems has improved greatly Now governments must be encouraged to act to reduce the anthropogenic greenhouse effect

15. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) An agreement of 192 of the worlds nations to act on stabilizing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emmisions Established in 1992

16. UNFCCC 2 http://climateknowledge.org:16080/figures/WuGblog_figures/RBRWuG0054_UNFCCC_Summary.JPG

17. UNFCCC 3 http://www.topnews.in/files/UNFCCC-climate-change.jpg Organizes meeting to discuss scientific and political action Mandate sustainable development of the world’s resources

18. Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/images/KyotoProtocol.jpg

19. Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/kyoto/gfx/titlephoto.jpg In Kyoto, Japan, in 1997, Canada and 160 other countries agreed to set a goal of an average 5% reduction in Global greenhouse gas emissions by 2012 The agreement went into effect in Feb. 2005 As of 2008, 183 countries had ratified the protocol

20. Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change http://knowledge.allianz.com/nopi_downloads/images/kyoto-greenpeace-activist_z.jpg According to the Kyoto Protocol, Canada must reduce its emissions of GHG to 6% below 1990 levels In reality Canada’s emissions increased 22% between 1990 - 2006

21. Canada’s Kyoto Target

22. Kyoto Emission – Reduction Credits Credits can be earned by a country for actions that reduce global GHG emissions This does not mean the country has reduced its own levels

23. Kyoto Emission – Reduction Credits 2 Credits can be awarded for: 1. A developed country helps a developing country reduce its emissions 2. A developed country helps another developed country to reduce its emissions 3. A country engages in practices that help remove CO 2 from the atmosphere

24. Go Green – Ontario’s Action Plan on Climate Change Reduce Ontario’s GHG emissions Improve public transport in the GTA Encourage jobs in green technology Decrease coal-fired power plants; increase power generated by renewable resources Protect green spaces and agricultural land