1. Climate Change, Migration and Displacement 1 Kees van der Geest (PhD) United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security Section: Environmental Migration, Social Vulnerablity and Adaptation with inputs from Koko Warner (section head), Andrea Milan, Tamer Afifi Planetary Security Conference The Hague, 2-3 November 2015

2. Empirical work on environmental migration at UNU-EHS 2007-2009: Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios (EACH-FOR) Project – 23 case studies, broad focus 2011-2013: Where the Rain Falls Project – 8 case studies, focus on changing rainfall patterns 2012-2013: Loss and Damage in Vulnerable Countries Initiative – 8 case studies 2014-2016: Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Evidence for Policy (MECLEP) Project - 6 case studies, migration as adaptation 2014-2016: Pacific Climate Change and Migration (PCCM) Project – 3 cases Also many non-empirical projects on climate-migration

3. Mixed-method research People-centred Household questionnaires Participatory methods Expert interviews Secondary data Sometimes: Spatial analysis (GIS) Sometimes: Agent-based modeling Meta-analysis across cases to identify patterns Almost exclusively in ‘Global South’ UNU-EHS methods aim to generate policy-relevant results

4. Until early 2000s: Environmental change hardly considered in migration. Focus shifted with rising concern about climate change impacts Environmental migration mostly internal; affected people tend to lack resources to move abroad Causality usually not direct: Climatic stressor  Food/Livelihood security  Migration Really hard to predict numbers (e.g. Syria), also with ABM and using scenarios Migration can be an effective adaptation but can also be erosive; varies between households (vulnerable-resilient, MDVI) Pro-active migration can prevent distress migration / forced displacement UNU-EHS Research findings and trends (1)

5. Climatic stressors mostly induce migration when: Peope depend on rain-fed agriculture, live close to subsistence, have low livelihood diversification, and access to migration opportunities More attention for people’s perceptions of environmental change More attention for trapped populations: Environmental change can reduce people’s ability to migrate Conflicts over natural resources are not a common migration cause in our case studies Conflict and security issues are also not the norm in destination areas WG11 Background paper that identifies specific circumstances where distress migration causes chaos/conflict The questions have changed: 1) Is there a link; 2) Under which circumstances; 3) How to optimize migration outcomes UNU-EHS Research findings and trends (2)

6. THANK YOU! Also on behalf of UNU-EHS colleagues: Koko Warner Andrea Milan Tamer Afifi Christina Rademacher Contact: geest@ehs.unu.edugeest@ehs.unu.edu