1. URBANIZATION AND URBAN SPRAWL
NY DEC
Low density development but large spatial extent
Can we target areas for conservation that promote resilience?
Need information on areas that are likely to become urbanized in the future
Resilience: systems that can absorb forcings or shocks such as climate change (i.e. longleaf resilience vs interruption by urbanization

2. WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE WE SIMULATING?
1993

3. WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE WE SIMULATING?
2010
Sprawling neighborhoods, strip mall, I-540

4. What SLEUTH IS Cellular Automaton Model
Use historic rates of urbanization (from imagery) to calibrate model
Simulate urban growth based on physical and social constraints and proximity to existing urban and transportation
Monte Carlo-based simulation allows for probabilistic projections
Input dates 2000, 2006, 2008, 2009

5. What About SLEUTH: Add about model
Background, CA, spatial process , historic data, growth rules
I:docs\
What
About SLEUTH:
USGS / UCSB
Cellular Automaton
Spatial Process
Historic data
Growth rules
Spontaneous
New Spreading
Edge Growth
Road-influenced
Projections of future urbanization
esri grid format
60m resolution
urban, exurban
value representing bins of probability
Calibrated and predicted on modified USCB Combined Statistical Areas

6. HOW WE DEFINE URBAN AREAS
Road Density as proxy for Suburban Growth
input data acquisition not feasible

7. HOW WE DEFINE URBAN AREAS
SLEUTH simulates spread of road density and therefore urbanization

8. LOWER BOUND ROAD DENSITY UPPER BOUND ROAD DENSITY
HOW WE DEFINE URBAN AREAS
LOWER BOUND ROAD DENSITY
UPPER BOUND ROAD DENSITY
NLCD URBAN
CLASS

9. What SLEUTH Doesn’t Do Include detailed parcel level info
Directly incorporate pop/demographic
models to get at density/
housing demand
Does allow for policy input through
exclusion/resistance layers
Exclusion layer allows for incorporating policy alternatives: smart growth / rapid urbanization

10. When
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060

11. Where Southeast Regional Assessment Project
Appalachian
Gulf Coastal Plain and Ozarks
Southeast Regional Assessment Project
Where
Add example, include fort bragg from earlier add overlay of all three areas

12. Questions
Add example, include fort bragg from earlier add overlay of all three areas

13. Questions/Comments
Questions or comments from presentation about the SLEUTH model or about our data products in general?
Questions or comments in general about the SALCC, what we’re doing, where we’re going, etc.?
Any questions from the updates?

14. Contacts Ken McDermond – ken_mcdermond@fws.gov
Rua Mordecai –
Janet Cakir –
Amy Keister –
Laurie Rounds –
Ginger Deason –
GINGER>> Here are our addresses if you would like to contact us after this forum.