1. Assessing Resilience in Buffalo, New York

2. A Vignette in Resilience

3. Is Buffalo Resilient?

4. Resilience = the ability to anticipate, prepare for, respond to and recover from a shock or stress

5. Performance, e.g., of the economy, infrastructure, civic engagement, environment Resilience Non-resilience Time Shock, Stress A Resilience Model

6. Methods: Linking Assets to Success and Resilience Resilience = f (assets and endowments Natural features, human capital, industry mix, political structure, social capital, legal context, demographics… Actors, policies, institutions, culture + response)

7. Actors business universities labor elected officials cdcs ethnic/ racial groups faith-based orgs. Institutions fiscal rules/tax systems state law & relations federal law & relations local political norms Policies social policy workforce development transportation policy land use regulations Culture regional identity values, norms priorities history/ stories Response Elaborated

8. So, I repeat, is Buffalo resilient?

9. (A delay tactic….) Of which system, over what time, to which challenge?

10. Resilience = the ability to anticipate, prepare for, respond to and recover from a shock or stress A reminder… preparation phase performance phase

11. Performance: population change, job change, income change, poverty change Chronic Shocks, Stresses Buffalo Metro Economic Resilience “Performance Phase,” 1970-2000 1970198019902000 Manufacturing peers (n=14) Rustbelt peers (n=17) New York peers (n=9 or 10)

12. Buffalo Metro Economic Resilience “Preparation Phase,” 1970-2000

13. Weak Strong Performance WeakStrong Preparation Not resilient, Neglectful Resilient, by intention Resilient, but Ephemeral Not resilient, but Nice Try Is Buffalo Resilient? Finally, An Answer

14. Three Conclusions 2. Resilience research is full of challenges: conceptual, methodological, analytical 3. Resilience research is full of promise: links assets, interventions and outcomes, many under local control

15. Assessing Resilience in Buffalo, New York