1. 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop with EEA (1) and its Member Countries 11 November, 2015 – Brussels, Belgium Latest work on aviation emissions in Europe Fuel Burn and Emissions Inventory System for the EEA Prepared by Mark Whiteley, Robin Deransy, and Nuria Torres Meana for EUROCONTROL November, 2015 (1) European Environment Agency

2. Purpose – Serves 2 reporting systems  UNECE (1) CLRTAP (2)  UNFCCC (3)  Kyoto Protocol 2 United Nations 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels (1) United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (2) Convention on Long-Range Trans-boundary Air Pollution (3) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

3. Gaseous species and particulate matter categories that have to be reported to CLRTAP and UNFCCC  CLRTAP  carbon monoxide (CO)  non-methane VOCs (1)  NOX (= NO + NO 2 )  SOX (= SO 2 + SO 3 )  POM4PAH (2)  PM 10 (3)  PM 2.5 (4)  UNFCCC  carbon dioxide (CO 2 )  carbon monoxide  methane (CH 4 )  nitrous oxide (N 2 O)  non-methane VOCs  NOX  SOX 3 (1) Volatile organic compounds (2) A set of 4 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons specified by the UNECE (3) All particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 micrometers (4) All particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

4. States Coverage – November, 2015 ECAC (1) 44 States EUROCONTROL (2) 41 STATES Albania Armenia Bosnia & Herzegovina Georgia Macedonia (Republic of) Moldova Monaco Montenegro Serbia Ukraine EU (3) 28 States Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom Azerbaijan San Marino Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Norway Switzerland Turkey Liechtenstein EEA 33 States Iceland (1) European Civil Aviation Conference (2) European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (3) European Union 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels4

5. EUROCONTROL region/airspace 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels5

6. 6 Overview of the fuel burn and emissions inventory system Generate full trajectories for EEA-33 flights worldwide Flight Schedule Data Flight schedules for all flights worldwide Flight Plan Data Flights + full/partial trajectories for EUROCONTROL-41 flights in EUROCONTROL airspace Generate fuel burnt + emissions for EEA-33 flights worldwide Emissions Inventory Flights +full trajectories for EEA-33 flights worldwide Flights + fuel burnt + emissions for EEA-33 flights worldwide AEM (1) 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels (1) Advanced Emission Model

7. 7  Any flight…  whose departure airport has the code “AFIL”  whose departure or arrival airport has the code “ZZZZ” or an unrecognised code or is missing  whose type of associated aircraft has an unrecognised or missing code  whose departure and/or arrival date and time is missing or cannot be determined  that is marked as being a military flight. Flights excluded from calculation 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

8. Advanced Emission Model - AEM 8 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

9. Gaseous species and particulate matter categories treated by the AEM  acetaldehyde (1) (ethanal)  acrolein (prop-2-enal)  benzene (2)  buta-1,3-diene  carbon dioxide  carbon monoxide  ethyl benzene  formaldehyde (methanal)  NOX  POM16PAH (3)  POM7PAH (4)  propianaldehyde (propanal)  SOX  styrene (phenylethene)  toluene (methylbenzene)  total hydrocarbons  water vapour  xylenes (1,[2|3|4]-dimethylbenzene)  non-volatile particulate matter  volatile organic particulate matter  volatile sulphur particulate matter 9 (1) Organic gases in red (2) VOCs in blue (3) A set of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons specified by the UNECE (4) A subset of 7 of the compounds in POM16PAH 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

10. Gaseous species and particulate matter categories not treated by the AEM  methane  nitrous oxide  non-methane VOCs  POM4PAH  PM2.5  PM10 10 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

11. 11 Trajectory description (1) 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

12. 12 Trajectory description (2) 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

13. 13 PhasePhase durationEngine thrust setting Taxi out (1) 1140 seconds (19 minutes)7% Take off42 seconds100% Climb out132 seconds85% Final approach and landing240 seconds (4 minutes)30% Taxi in (1) 420 seconds (7 minutes)7% (1) Applied for non-European airports and when no CODA (2) data are available (2) Central Office for Delay Analysis – A EUROCONTROL unit Default ICAO take-off and landing phase durations and engine thrust settings 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

14. 14 YearNumber of movements Average taxi-out time (minutes) Average taxi-in time (minutes) 200517639818.89.4 200619783917.79.8 200720906017.09.8 200821560917.69.9 200921093517.19.6 201019776117.59.5 201120387715.99.6 201219760615.89.5 201318815615.99.4 201418171515.59.6 Examples of average taxi times at Paris CDG airport as determined by EUROCONTROL’s CODA 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

15. 15 Type of aircraft / Type of aircraft engine mapping 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

16. ICAO Aircraft Engine Emissions Databank 16 http://easa (1).europa.eu/document-library/icao-aircraft-engine-emissions-databank 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels (1) European Aviation Safety Agency

17. Turboprop fuel and emissions data 17 http://www.foi.se/en/Our-Knowledge/Aeronautics/FOIs-Confidential- database-for-Turboprop-Engine-Emissions/ 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

18. 18 The calculation made by the AEM 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels (1) Boeing Fuel Flow Method 2 (2) US Environmental Protection Agency

19. BOEING Fuel Flow Method 2  Used above 3000 ft  The SAE AIR5715 2009 document details the procedure for the calculation of aircraft emissions  BFFM2 does not actually compute emissions; rather, it predicts the emission index (EI) values that can be used with fuel burn to compute the mass of emissions 19 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

20. AEM emission indices  H 2 O  1.23 kg per kg of fuel burnt  CO 2  3.15 kg per kg of fuel burnt  (3.05 kg for piston-engined aircraft)  SOX  0.84 g per kg of fuel burnt 20 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

21. 21 BADA performance table 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

22. 22 AEM input and output files 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

23. 23 Methodology document 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

24. Changes to the method in 2015  Geographic scope  Mayotte included in the French Republic  Types of aircraft  Changes to existing types  Addition of new types  Taxi times  2014 taxi times (still for airports with >= 100 arrivals/departures per year)  Calculations  Some duplicate flights were removed  PM total, PM 0.1 and PM 2.5 calculated outside AEM  N 2 O was previously over-estimated by a factor of 1000 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels 24

25. Sources of inaccuracy (1/3) 25 ElementFacts Level of inaccuracy Flights in EUROCONTROL airspace Data about flight trajectories are as accurate as the data stored in EUROCONTROL’s database is. All flights having a flight plan in EUROCONTROL airspace are stored in the EUROCONTROL database. Low EEA-33 OMR and OCT flights Flights between EEA-33 OMRs and OCTs are taken from scheduled flight data – it is possible that a scheduled flight might not actually have taken place. Low Flight trajectories in EUROCONTROL airspace Trajectories are based on corrected flight plans, and not on radar tracks, and therefore are slightly less accurate. 2-3% Flight trajectories for EU28 zone These trajectories do not take account of aircraft weight, engine type, etc. 10-20% 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

26. Sources of inaccuracy (2/3) 26 ElementFactsLevel of inaccuracy Flight trajectories outside EUROCONTROL airspace Trajectories might need to be completed or created based on standard maximum flight level, flight distance, and departure weight. Medium The AEM ModelAEM is approved by ICAO CAEP. It provides results that are comparable with those of other models used at the CAEP level for fuel burn and emissions calculations. Low-Medium Aircraft type / Engine type association An association is made between each type of aircraft and a type of aircraft engine type after checking for the 250 most seen aircraft types (covering around 99% of the European fleet). Because BADA associates only one type of engine to any particular type of aircraft, an aircraft might have one type of aircraft associated for the take off and landing parts and another one for the cruise part. Low-High 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

27. Sources of inaccuracy (3/3) 27 ElementFactsLevel of inaccuracy Taxi-out and taxi- in times Annual average taxi-in and taxi-out times are provided by EUROCONTROL’s CODA for airports with more than 100 movements in a year. Low BADAMargin of error of BADA models Low BFFM 2Margin of error of BFFM 2 Low-Medium The models themselves The margin of error of each species estimation (PM calculation...., NOX, CH 4, N 2 O, etc.) Medium-High 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

28. Possible improvements in 2016  Get better aircraft / engine matches to increase the accuracy of the LTO data (and even the climb-cruise-descent data)  Use average annual taxi-in and taxi-out times for airports with less than 100 arrivals/departures per year  Refine the methodology for certain species (such as NOx [for AEM Version 2.5.3 onwards] and PM)  Get better sources for the emissions factors  Make more regular updates of the system data (such as on a monthly basis) 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels 28

29. For further information 292015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

30. 30 Web portal requirements document 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

31. 31 General web portal architecture 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

32. For further information 322015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

33. 33 Thank you! Slide 33 2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels