1. 1 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 11 Dr. YANN ALIX General Delegate SEFACIL Foundation Le Havre – France East & South African Container Markets: Trends and Consequences for Port Authorities & Inland Corridor Services

2. 2 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 2 Content of the Presentation Introduction : Who are we ? PART 1 The liners’ strategies effects on Regional Port competition Discussion PART II From Milk Run Services to Hub… to Hub and Spoke services : what gonna change for Port Authorities PART III Global Terminal Operators & Global Logistics Integrators perspectives

3. 3 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 3 The SEFACIL Foundation : A unique international think-tank around strategic & prospective analysis on Port, Maritime & Logistics Polarizing the knowledge and the intelligences on Port/Maritime/Logistics by teaming-up an International Applied Research Programme Creation of innovative products on Africa-China-Europe developments thanks to the support of the biggest private enterprises as well as national and international public bodies and institutions

4. 4 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 44 Shipping containers handled in Ports by Country in 2008 (prior to the global crisis) Shipping containers handled in Africa 1980 - 2008 (prior to the global crisis) Source : DREWRY Consultants Source : WorldMapper 2011

5. 5 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 5 KENYA UGANDA MOZAMBIQUE MADAGASCAR COMOROS TANZANIA REUNION MAURITIUS MALAWIZAMBIA NAMIBIA SOUTH AFRICA BOTSWANA ZIMBABWE RWANDA BURUNDI SEYCHELLES Mombasa Dar-es-Salaam Nacala Toamasina Port Reunion Port Louis Beira Maputo Durban East London Ngqura Port Elizabeth Cape Town Walvis Bay Eastern & Southern Countries & major ports Market coverage Dr. Yann ALIX & Jean-François PELLETIER Nov 2011 55

6. 6 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 6 Shipping Lines Connectivity & Capacity deployed on Eastern & Southern Ports Situation reported Sept 2011 3,800,000 Teu’s Trade Capacity 350 Vessels 50 Weekly services 20 Ports weekly called Source : Dynamar 2011, Drewry 2011, Containerisation International 2011, Alphaliner 2011 66 Dr. Yann ALIX Nov 2011

7. 7 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 7 MAERSK LINE MSC OTHERS CMA-CGM 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % SOUTH AFRICA TANZANIA 10 % 20 %30 % NAMIBIA MAURITIUS KENYA MOZAMBIQUE Regional Market Coverage (Number of TEU’s by main players & allocated TEU’s capacity deployed on ports by countries) Situation reported Sept 2011 Source : Dynamar 2011, Drewry 2011, Containerisation International 2011, Alphaliner 2011 Dr. Yann ALIX Nov 2011 77

8. 8 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 8 Annual Trade Capacity deployed by Major areas of markets Situation reported Sept 2011 In TEU’s Southern, Eastern & Indian Ocean Markets Far East Asia MidEast & India Europe & Med Africa North America 100,000 250,000 500,000 1,000,000 Source : Dynamar 2011, Drewry 2011, Containerisation International 2011, Alphaliner 2011, Port Authorities Dr. Yann ALIX Nov 2011 45 % 25 %

9. 9 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 9 From Kenya to Mozambique Indian Ocean South Africa Namibia Port Throughputs by main range (including Durban – 2010 in TEU’s) 2,000,000 TEU’s 1,000,000 TEU’s 500,000 TEU’s 99 75% of the TEU’s handled in Eastern/Southern Africa are concentrated on South African Ports Dr. Yann ALIX Nov 2011

10. 10 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 10 Major Port throughputs (except Durban) (Minimum of 30,000 TEU’s/yr) Mombasa Dar Es Salaam Nacala Beira Maputo Toamasina Port Louis Port Réunion East London Ngqura Port Elizabeth Cape Town Walvis Bay Source : Dynamar 2011, Containerisation International 2011, Port Authorities 600,000 400,000 200,000 100,000 2006 2010 10 Dr. Yann ALIX Nov 2011

11. 11 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 11 Sketch on Ports configuration - Yesterday ! Milk Run System with « national single port gateway » serving mainly « domestic markets » Cross-trading liner system based on interlinking Regional & Intercontinental loops Feedering network not enough reliable (size of the markets, productivity of handling activities, terminal costs for thanshipments, dwell time for small ships, etc.) Economies of scale not sufficient Lack of Regional Customs facilitation & integration Very few transnational freight railway opportunities Few paved roads connecting gateway Very few Logistic value added services on Imp/Exp products (FTZ & services added) South-African Range SouthWest Range SouthEast Range Landlocked markets Inland boundaries National Port Gateway & hinterland Transcontinental direct call services National direct call services Regional feedering services Regional Hub Dr. Yann ALIX Nov 2011

12. 12 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 12 Toward a new subregional Port hierarchy based on : Forecasted increase of Imp/Exp volumes New generation of motherships (6,000 and +) & feederships (1500 and +) Hub & Spoke opportunities Improvment of Terminal global performances Trades imbalances & empty strategic management Regional Port Reform & GTO investments Inland investments & Multimodal Corridors solutions Overlapping of hinterland coverage & competitiveness to control landlocked markets stimulated Sketch on Ports configuration - tomorrow ? South-African Range SouthWest Range SouthEast Range Landlocked markets Inland boundaries National Port Gateway & hinterland Transcontinental direct call services National direct call services Regional feedering services Inland multimodal corridors Dr. Yann ALIX Nov 2011 Regional Hub Hub & Spoke terminal

13. 13 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 13 The Shipping Lines’ perspective Dr. Yann ALIX Nov 2011 New Services design & port calls hierarchy based on : The market-related factors because PMAESA Ports are not really at the crossroads of major intercontinental trades flows even if Durban acts as a « regional hub » (as for Western Med, Carribean Seas or South-East Asia) « Undirect » coverage with Hub & Spoke solutions Vs Direct access to hinterland ( Savings based on the availablity of cargo (regularity & reliability) + terminal productivity + Economies of scale by shortcut routes & services thanks to bigger ships deployment, etc…) The Transhipment port Location (Geographical factors & Overall Cost Model including feedering & hinterland dimension) The number of calls Vs the order of the calls Vs the hierarchy of the calls Roundtrip voyage time per ship and per loop Vs Frequency Vs the number of ships allocated per service to assume weekly coverage

14. 14 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 14 Global Terminal Operators’ perspective Dr. Yann ALIX Nov 2011 Future Regional Terminal Rivalry GTO (HPH, DPW, APMT and so on) are not so much involved into ports’development in the PMAESA BUT…. They are looking for being the first movers in your terminal/port expansion due to the regional economic growth perspective… (lack of Port infrastructure to accomodate the forecasted growth despite the Word crisis …) They closely watch how Shipping Lines are reconsidering PMAESA market coverage

15. 15 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 15 Global Terminal Operators’ perspective Dr. Yann ALIX Nov 2011 Source : Notteboom & Rodrigue 2011

16. 16 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 16 Global Logistics Integrator’s perspective New Inland Corridor logistics services competition TBL proposed by Logistics Integrators to have a better control on the Inland/Landlocked Door-to- African Port Gateway African Port Gateway-to-Inland/landlocked Door multimodal services The Through B/L service The Through B/L service includes the costs of terminal handling and the oncarriage of containers from alongside ship to place of delivery. The service also includes the charges for detention, demurrage, container rental up to final destination. The exchange of the original B/L and the control of the container seal number are made at destination by our SDV agent to guarantee the safety of your goods

17. 17 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 17 SL, GTO & GLI’s perspective TOWARD NEW MODELS OF GOVERNANCE TO ENCOURAGE PPP & PRIVATE INTERESTS TO FUEL THE FUTURE PORT & LOGISTICS REGIONAL GROWTH Dr. Yann ALIX Nov 2011 Estimated end of 2010 Source : DREWRY Consultants

18. 18 © SEFACIL 2011 PMAESA Conference 2011 www.sefacil.comwww.sefacil.com - yann.alix@sefacil.comyann.alix@sefacil.com 18 MERCI BEAUCOUP ! THANKS A LOT ! www.sefacil.com 00 33 (0)6 11 26 34 21 yann.alix@sefacil.com