1. Analysing the sustainability of road freight transport - combining multiple sources of information Markus Pöllänen & Heikki Liimatainen Tampere University of Technology, Finland 1 19.1.2016

2. Background Road freight transport and CO 2 emissions Sustainability of road freight transport is discussed here especially in regard to CO 2 emissions In Europe, transport has been recognised to be a sector which is growing in terms of CO 2 emissions - unlike other sectors There are currently no viable alternatives to fossil fuels in large extent in road freight transport The demand for transport is expected to grow substantially 2 19.1.2016

3. The KULJETUS-project Several methods utilised - how to combine the data and information produced? 3 19.1.2016 11/2010 12/2010 1/2011 2/2011 3/2011 4/2011 5/2011 6/2011 7/2011 8/2011 9/2011 10/2011 11/2011 12/2011 Literature survey 191 relevant reports and articles found Statistical methods Trend extrapolation data from 1995-2009 some 10-15 000 individual trips/year Statistical methods Branch-level analysis 9 branches Web-survey for hauliers 295 accepted answers (9.3 %) Workshop 1 14 experts Workshop 2 8 experts Statistical methods Data 2010 - update to the analysis Workshop 3 Delphi study panel consisting of 28 willing hauliers and appr. 30 other experts Final results In addition steering group and internal research group meetings (TUT & University of Turku, Finland & Heriott-Watt University, UK) The aim in the project is to sketch futures of energy efficiency and CO 2 emissions in Finnish road freight transport until 2016 and 2030

4. The context for the analysis There is a widely adopted framework for analysing the CO 2 emissions of road freight transport There are several classifications by which the futures research methods have been grouped The question discussed here is with which methods and especially what kind of information considering the future development can be gathered to support making sensible forecasts of the CO 2 emissions of road freight transport Two timeframes: up to the year 2016 and 2030 4 19.1.2016

5. The framework for analysing the CO 2 emissions of road freight transport 5 19.1.2016

6. The foresight diamond by R. Popper 6 19.1.2016

7. The framework for evaluation and organising of futures research methods by Mika Aaltonen 7 19.1.2016 Well known, relatively easy to use Not widely adopted nor used, thus a big potential

8. Aspects related to different methods and data The role of the literature survey and scenarios The literature survey formed the base for the selection of methods in the KULJETUS-project Methods are easier to implement when there are already forerunners - yet the results are usually not comparable because of national special characteristics Here the scenarios are the way to gather and present the results - the information and data produced by different methods, in co-operation with the policy makers and implementers 8 19.1.2016

9. Aspects related to different methods and data Statistical modelling and trend extrapolation, “pure engineering approach” There should be at least two times more historical data than the extrapolated period is (May 1996) For Finland, there is comparable data from 1995 (i.e. 15 years), so the shorter timeframe (5 years) meets the rule, but not the longer timeframe (20 years) Trend extrapolations don’t hold for longer time periods as we cannot assume the same trends and their same effects to continue far to the future The quality of data does not enable high-detail analysis and constrains the extrapolations since the data is based on sampling Data considering some aspects in the framework is not available, e.g. the tyres used 9 19.1.2016

10. Aspects related to different methods and data Expert methods: Web-survey for hauliers, Delphi and workshops One-way information flow in the web-survey Partly supporting the statistical analyses Controlled, two-way flow of information in the Delphi study (2 rounds) Special emphasis on the arguments and reasoning, not only the development of the key ratios in the framework Free, two-way flow of information in the workshop discussions, even though the workshops are structured Partly the same experts in the different methods 10 19.1.2016

11. Conclusions Making sensible forecasts by combining the information and data gathered by different methods Analysing which results are supported by different types of reasoning (e.g. statistical trends, hauliers’ survey, experts in the Delphi panel) Short term projections are possible by statistical trend extrapolation, long-term with several other methods The KULJETUS-project will be completed in the end of 2011 Afterwards analysing also the results produced with different methods One last goal in the project is to connect possible actions of different decision-makers 11 19.1.2016

12. We invite questions and comments! markus.pollanen@tut.fi heikki.liimatainen@tut.fi 12 19.1.2016