1. Transition Walthamstow Paul Gasson 020 8520 0648 / 07979-767274 paul.gasson@gmail.com

2. Tonight What is Transition all about? (15 minutes) Mapping exercise and discussion (15 minutes) Open floor - hot topics (10 mins) Tea break (5 mins) Visioning exercise: What do we want for Walthamstow? (30 mins) Next steps: (10 minutes)

3. Transition Fundamentals Peak oil Climate change Transition model (Some local projects)

4. Peak oil - what is it?

5. Forties field UK sector North Sea The basic dynamics of oil production: A steep initial increase, a production plateau and then a slow but irreversible decline. Once the peak is past there are many techniques and technologies that can brought to maximise the declining output, but it is a losing battle and production will never return to it former levels. A typical oil field

6. Global oil discovery & production

7. When will peak oil happen?

8. Post peak oil producers (64) www.lastoilshock.com Oil producers (98)

9. Where we get our energy Source: ExxonMobile web site

10. How many men does it take to push a car? Why is oil so important?

11. Transition Training 2007 What do we use oil for?

12. Economic growth & energy use

13. What is climate change?

14. Is it proven?

15. What are the main problems with out of control CC?

16. CO2 levels over past 60,000 years 381 ppm 2006

17. The need for an urgent response

18. Responses to Peak Oil & Climate Change CLIMATE CHANGE Climate engineering Carbon capture and storage International emissions trading Climate adaptation Nuclear power P O + C C = Systems Re-think Planned Relocalisation Energy Descent Pathways Local Resilience PEAK OIL Burn everything!  relaxed drilling regulations  biofuels  tar sands & non- conventional oils Resource nationalism Resource Wars

19. Transition ‘recognitions’ 1.Life with dramatically lower energy consumption is inevitable. 2.Our communities lack the resilience to withstand the severe energy shocks that will follow peak oil. 3.We have to act collectively and we have to act now. 4.By unleashing the collective genius of those around us we can build better ways of living.

20. Fundamental principles Key goals: reducing energy use & carbon emissions Reskilling: relearning lost skills, mending rather than buying new, … Satisfying our intrinsic desire for community: William Morris 'fellowship is life, and lack of fellowship is death' Catalyst: with no fixed answers, solutions are community led Systems resilience: tight feedback, diversity, social capital, innovation, … Permaculture principles

21. Why the transition model works Visioning of a positive future Awareness raising - decide on appropriate response Inclusion - everyone is needed, every skill is valuable Resilience - building strong local communities Credible, appropriate solutions Psychological insights - inner & outer transitions needed

22. Psychology of change Apocalyptic approach –depression, apathy Transition approach –addiction (stuck patterns causing harm), detox from oil –hope, positive vision, proactivity –community connection & inspiration –inner and outer: be the change you want to see –joyful, fun

23. Key Transition stages Set up a steering group Raise awareness Official launch Form groups e.g. food, energy, transport, economy Public meetings - open space Practical projects Facilitate reskilling Honour the elders Energy descent action plan

24. Totnes: Nut tree capital of Britain Plantations of modern nut varieties are much more productive than similar areas of arable crops. Wheat commonly produces between 2-10 tons/acre on good soils. On much poorer soils chestnuts have an annual yield of 7-11 tons, pecans 9-11 tons, hazelnuts 9-12 tons, and walnuts 10-15 tons.’ Richard Mabey, ‘Fencing Paradise’.

25. Lewes pound … The Lewes Pound is driven by three main considerations: Economic: Money spent locally stays within the community & is re-used many times, multiplying wealth and building local economy resilience (NEF) Environmental: Supporting local businesses and goods reduces the need for transport & minimises carbon footprint. Social: By spending money in local outlets we strengthen the relationships between local shopkeepers and the community.

26. Our choice We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.