1. Chapter 7 The Human Population

2. The human population underwent exponential growth in the 1800s mostly due to increases in food production and improvements in hygiene that came with the industrial revolution.

3. The 10 Most Populous Countries in the World World 7.3b China 1.37b India 1.25 b United States 322m- Indonesia 256m Brazil 204m Pakistan Nigeria Bangledesh Russia Japan 35.89% of Global Population 4.4% of Global Population

4. Figure 7.2 A theoretical model of food supply and population size. (a) In a theoretical 100-year period without significant improvements in agricultural technology, the human population grows exponentially, while the food supply grows linearly. Consequently, a food surplus is followed by a food deficit. (b) In a theoretical 100-year period with significant improvements in agricultural technology, the food supply increases suddenly. Consequently, there is a continuing food surplus. Malthusian prediction

6. Factors that Drive Human Population Growth Demography- the study of human populations and population trends. Changes in Population Size Fertility Life Expectancy Age Structure Migration

7. Changes in Population Size Immigration- the movement of people into a country Emigration- the movement of people out of a country. Net migration rate- the difference between immigration and emigration in a give year per 1,000 people in the country.

8. Changes in Population Size Crude birth rate (CBR)= the number of births per 1,000 individuals per year. Crude death rate (CDR)= the number of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year. Global population growth rate = (CBR- CDR)/ 10 National population growth rate = (CBR+ immigration) - (CDR + emigration)/ 10 Doubling time (in years)- 70/growth rate

9. Fertility Total fertility rate- an estimate of the average number of children that each woman in a population will bear. Replacement level fertility- the total fertility rate required to offset the average number of deaths in a population and for the current population size to remain stable.

10. US Total Fertility Rate

11. Adolescent Fertility Rate (per 1000) ages 15-19, from 2000- 2010 World Health Organization Map Production: Public Health Information and GIS. 2011

13. Life Expectancy The average number of years that an infant born in a particular year in a particular country can be expected to live, given the current average life span and death rate of that country. NOTE: New Jersey “historic” population life expectancy was < 50 years at birth

14. Infant and Child Mortality Infant mortality rate- the number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births. Child mortality rate- the number of deaths of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births. NOTE: These are deaths for < 1 year of age. The New Jersey “historic” population had fewer than 200 deaths for < 10 years of age.

15. The human population underwent exponential growth in the 1800s mostly due to increases in food production and improvements in hygiene that came with the industrial revolution.

16. The Demographic Transition The theory that as a country moves from a subsistence economy to industrialization and increased affluence, it undergoes a predictable shift in population growth. Model of the general pattern of demographic change from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates, observed in the history of more-developed countries.

17. Stage 1 – Preindustrial: Population rate is stable due to high br & dr

18. Stage 2 – Transitional: Rapid population growth; high br, but dr decline due to improvements in sanitation, hygiene, nutrition, and health care.

19. Stage 3 – Industrial: Stable population growth; economy & education improves, fewer children

20. Stage 4 – Postindustrial: Population declines; the birth rate drops below replacement level due to affluence and economic development that encourage women to delay having children

21. Recap: The Stages of the Demographic Transition Phase 1: Slow population growth because there are high birth rates and high death rates which offset each other. Phase 2: Rapid population growth because birth rates remain high but death rates decline due to better sanitation, clean drinking water, increased access to food and goods, and access to health care. Phase 3: Stable population growth as the economy and educational system improves and people have fewer children. Phase 4: Declining population growth because the relatively high level of affluence and economic develop encourage women to delay having children.

22. Population Reference Bureau, 1990 Demography from 1775-1990, according to available information Developing countries appear to have much larger population growth through transition

23. A Demographically Diverse World Populations are still growing rapidly in less developed countries, with most of the world’s population now within Asia.

24. Managing Development and Population Growth Countries such as China, Thailand, and India have created campaigns to reduce the fertility rates of their citizens. Most demographers still predict a medium growth rate, and a world population of 9 billion in 2040.

25. Age Structure Visual representations of age structure within a country for males and females.

26. More Age Structure Diagrams

27. UNFPA is a subsidiary agency of the United Nations General Assembly Worlds largest mulitlateral source of funding for population programs and reproductive health programs. Guided by outcomes of a number of conferences, including At the 1994 ICPD held in Cairo (the “Cairo Conference”), 179 nations reached consensus on actions needed to improve the quality of life of the people of the world over the next 20 years. The implementation of the recommendations contained in the Programme of Action is the sovereign right of each country, in conformity with universally recognized international human rights of the Charter of the United Nations. ICPD Programme of Action UN Conference on the Environment and Development (UNCED) 1992 1992, “Rio conference” or “Earth Summit”, first of its kind. 109 heads of state to address urgent problems of environmental protection and socio- economic development. Resulted in climate change convention that led to the Kyoto protocol, Agenda 21, and a convention on Biological Diversity. unfpa.org ICPD - Programme

28. ICPD Programme of Action (unfpa.org ICPD – Programme) Focus on reproductive health and Education; Provided 14 recommendations for programs 1.Interrelationships between population, sustained economic growth, and sustainable development 2.Gender equality, equity, and empowerment of women 3.The family, its roles, rights, composition, and structure 4.Population growth and structure 5.Reproductive rights and reproductive health 6.Health, morbidity, and mortality 7.Population distribution, urbanization, and internal migration 8.International migration 9.Population, development, and education 10.Technology, research, and development 11.National action 12.International cooperation 13.Partnerships with the non-governmental sector 14.Follow-up to the conference

29. September 2000 U.N. Millennium Summit, NYC U.N. proposed eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), based on what member countries agreed were the most pressing issues facing the world. Each MDG has time-bound and quantified targets by which progress can be measured. Member countries committed to reaching the MDGs by 2015. Progress detailed in Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/

30. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgs 2012 U.N. Conference on Sustainable Development, member states agreed to design of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a successor of the MDGs.

31. Fig 7.14 To estimate the impact of human lifestyles on Earth, environmental scientists Barry Commoner, Paul Ehrlich, and John Holdren developed the IPAT equation to estimate the impact of human lifestyles on Earth. Impact = Population × Affluence × Technology Although it is written mathematically, the IPAT equation is a conceptual representation of the three major factors that influence environmental impact. Fig 7.15