1. Economic Consequence Analysis Module: Regional and National Economic Impacts of Port Disruptions Kickoff Template Submission Date: January 2, 2015 Research Team: Dan Wei and Adam Rose PI(s): currently not funded; previous funding from USCG & DHS (through PortSec) Research Transition Lead: Dan Wei

2. 2 Project Objectives: Research Goals –Develop an economic consequence analysis model to estimate regional & national economic impacts from port disruptions due to natural disasters & terrorism events –Incorporate a variety of resilience tactics in the model relating to recovering from port disruptions Research Transition Goals –Develop an operational tool to perform rapid estimation of potential economic losses from disruption of port operations & supply chains –Provide economic impact decision support for ports

3. 3 DHS Interest and Motivation: Why is DHS interested –Ports play a vital role in the Nation’s economic well- being –Ports can be a major target of terrorism & are vulnerable to natural disasters & climate change Who at DHS are your contacts –We currently do not have a DHS contact –We could reconnect with prior USCG contacts

4. 4 Potential non-DHS Stakeholders: Who else (operators/customers) could be interested in your research transition? –Port authorities and operators –Shipping companies –Local & regional governments –U.S. Geological Survey

5. 5 Interfaces to Related Research Who else is working on this –An initial economic consequence analysis tool for disruptions at POLA/POLB was developed as part of the PortSec Project (Interfaces with others in this field) –The PortSec Project is intended to develop a port security risk analysis & resource allocation system that integrates port operation model, risk assessment framework, economic consequence analysis & a resource/technology portfolio allocation model into an integrated incident response & resource allocation system

6. 6 Research Technical Plan: Currently, the model is built to estimate economic impacts of container terminal operation disruptions at POLA/POLB Future research technical plan is to: –Incorporate more resilience adjustments other than production recapture into the model –Extend the model to simulate more scenarios in relation to operation disruptions in terminals other than the container terminals –Extend the model to other major ports

7. 7 Research Transition Plan: Work with CREATE’s Director of Transition and Research Development to identify potential end-users of the model Determine the special interests & needs of end-users Refine the current model & develop the rapid economic consequence estimation tool for port disruptions for end-users

8. 8 Milestones and Schedule/Timeline: Identify potential end-users (by March 2015) Incorporate more resilience adjustments other than production recapture into current model (by May 2015) Extend the model to simulate more scenarios in relation to operation disruptions in terminals other than the container terminals at POLA/POLB (by June 2015) Depending on the interests & needs of the end-users, expand the model to other major seaports and make necessary modifications &refinements to the functions & interface of the model (by October 2015)