1. Fish and Climate Change Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis Lauren Wyman Environmental Defense Fund Dr. Stacy Small

2. What Is......the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI)? A way to understand how climate change may impact species using life history traits and GIS data So, what is climate change vulnerability analysis? It is a way to understand how climate change may impact species. MAY is the operative term here because we do not know exactly how climate change will unfold over the course of the next hundred or so years. So factoring in uncertainty is a must. So, how were the fish placed into each category? I thought that it would be a good idea to go through an example rather than trying to explain it myself. So, what is climate change vulnerability analysis? It is a way to understand how climate change may impact species. MAY is the operative term here because we do not know exactly how climate change will unfold over the course of the next hundred or so years. So factoring in uncertainty is a must. So, how were the fish placed into each category? I thought that it would be a good idea to go through an example rather than trying to explain it myself.

3. But First... We Need To Understand How Climate Change May Shape the Midwest’s Climate in the Coming Years: Warmer water temperatures More summer droughts More spring flooding Murkier water

5. So, how will fish fare in response to these changes? Let’s take an example.

6. LAKE STURGEON -Dispersal ability -Thermal Niche -Hydrological Niche -Tolerance to turbidity -Dependence on geological features -Dietary versatility -Genetic variation -How will hydrology change? -How will thermal habitats change? -Dispersal ability -Thermal Niche -Hydrological Niche -Tolerance to turbidity -Dependence on geological features -Dietary versatility -Genetic variation -How will hydrology change? -How will thermal habitats change? Moderately vulnerable Evaluation Criteria: Dispersal Ability Thermal Niche Hydrological Niche Tolerance to Turbidity Dietary Versatility Barriers: Dams in range Dispersal: Long distance migrant Thermal Niche: Cool water Turbidity Tolerance: Need Clear Water

7. Final Results

8. Patterns EV: species specialists. Cold water fish, spawn in shallow water, intolerant to turbidity HV: cool/cold water fish, spawn in shallow habitats MV: cool water fish, spawn in shallow habitats, better dispersal PS: tolerant to turbidity and warm water IL: species generalists. Thrive in turbidity, thrive in warm water, great dispersal. Many invasive species

9. Importance Climate change vulnerability analyses allows us to target species that may have difficulty in the coming years and do something about them before it’s too late. I attended a conference on CCVI and Leon Hizer, of the Illinois Natural History Survey, asked me for my results to include in the State Wildlife Action Plan. So my results will basically be shaping the state of conservation in Illinois. Climate change vulnerability analyses allows us to target species that may have difficulty in the coming years and do something about them before it’s too late. I attended a conference on CCVI and Leon Hizer, of the Illinois Natural History Survey, asked me for my results to include in the State Wildlife Action Plan. So my results will basically be shaping the state of conservation in Illinois. To conserve an ecosystem we must first know what to conserve

10. Special Thanks To... Dr. Stacy Small-Lorenz Lorin Romeo-Romay Stacey Christiansen PEI Team The Environmental Defense Fund. All of it.