1. Understanding Business Cycles

2. Digital Safari Institute GreenBizz Project Stages of a Business Cycle Expansion Phase Expansion Phase – Boom – Peak Contraction Phase Contraction Phase – Slowdown – Recession (2+ quarters) – Trough

3. Digital Safari Institute GreenBizz Project Business Cycle: Expansion

4. Digital Safari Institute GreenBizz Project Business Cycle: Peak

5. Digital Safari Institute GreenBizz Project Business Cycle: Contraction

6. Digital Safari Institute GreenBizz Project Business Cycle: Recession

7. Digital Safari Institute GreenBizz Project Business Cycle: Trough

8. Digital Safari Institute GreenBizz Project Business Cycle: Recovery

9. Digital Safari Institute GreenBizz Project Business Cycle: Expansion

10. Digital Safari Institute GreenBizz Project U.S. Economy: 1970-2006 Cycles of Booms, Busts and Recessions Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Expansion Contraction

11. Digital Safari Institute GreenBizz Project U.S. Economic Recessions How Long and How Severe? Historical Period Months Historical Period Months Feb ‘45 - Oct ’45 8 Nov ‘48 - Oct ’49 11 Jul ‘53 - May ’54 10 Aug ‘57 - Apr ’58 8 Apr ‘60 - Feb ’61 10 Dec ‘69 - Nov ’70 11 Peak Trough Historical PeriodMonths Historical PeriodMonths Nov ‘73 - Mar ’75 16 Jan ‘80 - Jul ’80 6 Jul ‘81 - Nov ’82 16 Jul ‘90 - Mar ’91 8 Mar ‘01 - Nov ’01 8 Average Duration: 10 Months Average Severity: -1.8% (Real GDP)

12. Tracking the Business Cycle

13. Digital Safari Institute GreenBizz Project Useful Economic Indicators Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Interest Rates (Federal Funds Rate) Interest Rates (Federal Funds Rate) Inflation (Consumer Price Index or CPI) Inflation (Consumer Price Index or CPI) Employment (Number of New Jobs) Employment (Number of New Jobs) Unemployment (%) Unemployment (%) Income Growth (% Change) Income Growth (% Change) Corporate After Tax Profits (% Change) Corporate After Tax Profits (% Change)

14. Digital Safari Institute GreenBizz Project Tracking the Business Cycle ExpansionContraction ExpansionContraction Interest Rates:Up Down Interest Rates:Up Down Inflation:Up Down Inflation:Up Down Employment:Up Down Employment:Up Down Unemployment:Down Up Unemployment:Down Up Income:Up Down Income:Up Down Corp. Profits:Up Down Corp. Profits:Up Down

15. Go For It!