1. DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES A post-2015 development framework Lars Engberg-Pedersen Senior researcher

2. The strength of the MDGs  Focus on poverty reduction and well-being  A limited set of simple goals  Focus on outcome, not input  Focus on objectives, not means  Goals supplied with indicators enabling annual monitoring  Good time frame, not too long, not too short DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

3. The weaknesses of the MDGs  Too much focus on developing countries, too little on rich countries  Too strong focus on social aspects of life, too little on employment and production  Too little concern with the political dimensions of poverty  Too little concern with inequality  Irrelevant in many country contexts DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

4. Current global changes  Poverty is increasingly a result of international processes (climate change, rising food and fuel prices, financial crisis…)  A chaotic ‘aid architecture’  Heterogeneous development paths  75% of the world’s poor live in middle income countries  Changes in the balance of global power due to rising ‘emerging economies’, economic crisis, aging populations in rich countries, etc.  Aid resources are dwarfed by other financial flows (FDI, remittances, philanthropy, illicit capital flows, etc.)

5. Current contentious issues  Inequality or ‘getting to zero’  Climate change and development  Global or universal goals  Ends and/or means  Financing  A changing world DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

6. Inequality in the post-2015 framework  Gender equality – probably yes  Social protection floors – yes  Measurement of progress among the poorest – yes  Stand-alone goal on reduced inequality – not likely –A possibility is to use the Palma ratio dividing the income of the top 10% with the income of the bottom 40% DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

7. Possible goal: Halving the Palma ratio CountryPalma ratio 2010 Baseline Palma ratio 2030 Target Bolivia (2008)4.8472.924 Brazil (2009)4.3022.651 Bulgaria (2007)0.997- Burkina Faso (2009)1.8591.430 China (2005)2.1541.577 Denmark (1997)0.922- France (1995)1.2671.134 Germany (2000)0.992- Ghana (2005)2.1721.586 India (2004)1.3551.178 Japan (1993)0.875- Malaysia (2009)2.6271.814 Netherlands (1999)1.0941.047 South Africa (2008)7.0524.026 Tanzania (2007)1.6531.327 United Kingdom (1999)1.6231.312 United States (2000)1.8521.426 DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES